The French Open is starting today, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of my percentage odds for you to view.
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- Karolina Pliskova is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 10.91% chance of winning the whole thing, with Serena Williams next at 10.76%. The 3rd most likely is Simona Halep with 10.67% and Petra Kvitova 4th with 8.38%
- Ivana Jorovic has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 90th most likely winner, while she is only the 100th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Jessica Pegula has a tough draw. She is the 87th most likely winner, but she is the 67th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Ajla Tomljanovic, as she's the 119th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 47th of the competitors.
- Dalila Jakupovic got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 45th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 112th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
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| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Naomi Osaka |
1763 |
84.83% |
51.70% |
38.20% |
24.69% |
11.92% |
6.37% |
3.42% |
| 2 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1464 |
15.17% |
3.49% |
1.21% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1565 |
28.27% |
8.58% |
4.14% |
1.60% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 4 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1727 |
71.73% |
36.23% |
25.29% |
15.19% |
6.61% |
3.22% |
1.57% |
| 5 |
Elena Rybakina |
1528 |
46.44% |
19.56% |
4.95% |
1.68% |
0.35% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 6 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1553 |
53.56% |
24.33% |
6.80% |
2.51% |
0.59% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 7 |
Anna Tatishvili |
1425 |
23.20% |
7.85% |
1.26% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Maria Sakkari |
1633 |
76.80% |
48.26% |
18.14% |
8.60% |
2.74% |
1.00% |
0.36% |
| 9 |
Caroline Garcia |
1682 |
74.02% |
51.97% |
29.12% |
14.23% |
5.37% |
2.29% |
0.98% |
| 10 |
Mona Barthel |
1500 |
25.98% |
11.95% |
4.02% |
1.06% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Anna Blinkova |
1438 |
31.90% |
8.09% |
2.20% |
0.45% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 12 |
Margarita Gasparyan |
1570 |
68.10% |
27.99% |
11.74% |
4.03% |
1.01% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
| 13 |
Timea Babos |
1442 |
51.09% |
11.74% |
3.36% |
0.70% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
Priscilla Hon |
1435 |
48.91% |
10.90% |
3.03% |
0.61% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Evgeniya Rodina |
1423 |
15.79% |
7.53% |
1.99% |
0.38% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Madison Keys |
1713 |
84.21% |
69.84% |
44.54% |
23.68% |
9.89% |
4.64% |
2.18% |
| 17 |
Serena Williams |
1832 |
91.00% |
82.62% |
63.00% |
39.98% |
27.35% |
17.08% |
10.76% |
| 18 |
Vitalia Diatchenko |
1430 |
9.00% |
4.48% |
1.15% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Kurumi Nara |
1389 |
39.92% |
4.21% |
0.90% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Dalila Jakupovic |
1460 |
60.08% |
8.68% |
2.50% |
0.51% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
Giulia Gatto-Monticone |
1486 |
30.37% |
9.81% |
1.95% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Sofia Kenin |
1630 |
69.63% |
35.44% |
11.61% |
4.41% |
1.83% |
0.66% |
0.24% |
| 23 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1446 |
21.72% |
6.82% |
1.16% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1669 |
78.28% |
47.92% |
17.73% |
7.59% |
3.54% |
1.46% |
0.60% |
| 25 |
Hsieh Su-Wei |
1666 |
78.23% |
53.81% |
21.30% |
8.21% |
3.80% |
1.54% |
0.62% |
| 26 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1443 |
21.77% |
8.28% |
1.45% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Alison Riske |
1541 |
54.12% |
21.41% |
5.55% |
1.38% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 28 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1513 |
45.88% |
16.50% |
3.83% |
0.85% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Danielle Collins |
1589 |
65.03% |
17.08% |
8.38% |
2.49% |
0.90% |
0.28% |
0.09% |
| 30 |
Tatjana Maria |
1481 |
34.97% |
5.90% |
2.06% |
0.40% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Jessica Pegula |
1528 |
15.28% |
7.13% |
2.91% |
0.69% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1826 |
84.72% |
69.89% |
54.53% |
32.25% |
21.81% |
13.45% |
8.35% |
| 33 |
Simona Halep |
1829 |
80.25% |
70.25% |
56.63% |
43.53% |
28.75% |
17.04% |
10.67% |
| 34 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1586 |
19.75% |
12.51% |
6.39% |
2.94% |
1.02% |
0.28% |
0.09% |
| 35 |
Chloe Paquet |
1486 |
48.76% |
8.24% |
3.07% |
1.01% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Magda Linette |
1495 |
51.24% |
9.00% |
3.46% |
1.18% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1578 |
58.60% |
28.26% |
8.54% |
3.84% |
1.29% |
0.35% |
0.10% |
| 38 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1518 |
41.40% |
16.49% |
4.01% |
1.48% |
0.40% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 39 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1523 |
35.49% |
16.25% |
4.04% |
1.52% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 40 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1627 |
64.51% |
39.00% |
13.86% |
7.17% |
2.86% |
0.93% |
0.33% |
| 41 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1650 |
74.70% |
44.53% |
25.68% |
10.60% |
4.53% |
1.60% |
0.61% |
| 42 |
Jasmine Paolini |
1462 |
25.30% |
8.58% |
2.81% |
0.60% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Monica Puig |
1620 |
66.49% |
34.71% |
18.62% |
7.03% |
2.74% |
0.87% |
0.30% |
| 44 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1501 |
33.51% |
12.18% |
4.59% |
1.14% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 45 |
Iga Swiatek |
1525 |
53.54% |
19.54% |
7.59% |
2.06% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 46 |
Selena Janicijevic |
1500 |
46.46% |
15.53% |
5.53% |
1.37% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Zheng Saisai |
1501 |
27.37% |
13.21% |
4.72% |
1.18% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Wang Qiang |
1671 |
72.63% |
51.72% |
30.46% |
13.35% |
6.07% |
2.30% |
0.95% |
| 49 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1701 |
60.48% |
40.62% |
24.80% |
12.44% |
6.13% |
2.57% |
1.16% |
| 50 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1627 |
39.52% |
22.72% |
11.68% |
4.78% |
1.91% |
0.62% |
0.22% |
| 51 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1615 |
68.46% |
28.74% |
14.31% |
5.64% |
2.17% |
0.67% |
0.23% |
| 52 |
Harmony Tan |
1480 |
31.54% |
7.93% |
2.59% |
0.64% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1474 |
52.01% |
13.64% |
3.82% |
0.91% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 54 |
Zhu Lin |
1460 |
47.99% |
11.87% |
3.14% |
0.71% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Karolina Muchova |
1559 |
30.42% |
19.15% |
7.38% |
2.43% |
0.77% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 56 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1703 |
69.58% |
55.34% |
32.28% |
16.26% |
8.05% |
3.39% |
1.54% |
| 57 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1595 |
61.58% |
33.02% |
11.26% |
4.79% |
1.72% |
0.50% |
0.16% |
| 58 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1513 |
38.42% |
16.15% |
4.13% |
1.32% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 59 |
Barbora Strycova |
1600 |
60.88% |
33.54% |
11.61% |
5.01% |
1.83% |
0.54% |
0.17% |
| 60 |
Samantha Stosur |
1523 |
39.12% |
17.30% |
4.58% |
1.52% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 61 |
Aliona Bolsova |
1492 |
45.92% |
8.71% |
3.40% |
1.00% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 62 |
Vera Zvonareva |
1521 |
54.08% |
11.58% |
4.96% |
1.64% |
0.45% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 63 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1553 |
18.56% |
10.47% |
4.97% |
1.84% |
0.57% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
| 64 |
Petra Kvitova |
1810 |
81.44% |
69.24% |
55.11% |
39.06% |
24.63% |
13.95% |
8.38% |
| 65 |
Sloane Stephens |
1693 |
81.79% |
58.47% |
39.88% |
18.91% |
9.10% |
4.30% |
1.70% |
| 66 |
Misaki Doi |
1432 |
18.21% |
6.62% |
2.21% |
0.40% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1474 |
37.22% |
10.52% |
4.07% |
0.88% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 68 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1565 |
62.78% |
24.40% |
12.49% |
3.88% |
1.23% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
| 69 |
Jennifer Brady |
1505 |
53.28% |
20.70% |
7.18% |
1.77% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 70 |
Ivana Jorovic |
1483 |
46.72% |
16.76% |
5.35% |
1.20% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Polona Hercog |
1505 |
33.28% |
17.14% |
5.94% |
1.46% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 72 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1626 |
66.72% |
45.39% |
22.88% |
8.82% |
3.46% |
1.33% |
0.41% |
| 73 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1726 |
80.07% |
62.75% |
32.29% |
21.02% |
11.04% |
5.70% |
2.50% |
| 74 |
Taylor Townsend |
1484 |
19.93% |
9.50% |
2.14% |
0.71% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 75 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1528 |
59.51% |
18.20% |
4.88% |
1.89% |
0.52% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 76 |
Johanna Larsson |
1461 |
40.49% |
9.55% |
1.95% |
0.59% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Bernada Pera |
1529 |
50.30% |
10.52% |
3.73% |
1.45% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 78 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1527 |
49.70% |
10.29% |
3.62% |
1.40% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 79 |
Venus Williams |
1753 |
48.08% |
37.76% |
24.18% |
16.55% |
9.30% |
5.15% |
2.45% |
| 80 |
Elina Svitolina |
1767 |
51.92% |
41.43% |
27.20% |
19.05% |
11.04% |
6.30% |
3.11% |
| 81 |
Belinda Bencic |
1686 |
76.06% |
55.27% |
33.73% |
15.04% |
7.37% |
3.41% |
1.31% |
| 82 |
Jessika Ponchet |
1485 |
23.94% |
10.96% |
3.70% |
0.81% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 83 |
Laura Siegemund |
1543 |
60.10% |
22.33% |
9.22% |
2.53% |
0.78% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 84 |
Sofya Zhuk |
1471 |
39.90% |
11.45% |
3.67% |
0.76% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1614 |
64.51% |
32.51% |
16.50% |
5.86% |
2.31% |
0.85% |
0.25% |
| 86 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1510 |
35.49% |
12.92% |
4.79% |
1.16% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Liudmila Samsonova |
1500 |
29.08% |
11.44% |
4.10% |
0.95% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 88 |
Donna Vekic |
1655 |
70.92% |
43.13% |
24.29% |
9.86% |
4.42% |
1.86% |
0.64% |
| 89 |
Johanna Konta |
1723 |
82.43% |
65.72% |
32.41% |
20.61% |
11.15% |
5.72% |
2.48% |
| 90 |
Antonia Lottner |
1454 |
17.57% |
8.01% |
1.56% |
0.44% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Lauren Davis |
1484 |
49.71% |
13.01% |
2.87% |
0.91% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 92 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1486 |
50.29% |
13.26% |
2.95% |
0.94% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 93 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1567 |
49.69% |
12.99% |
5.25% |
2.23% |
0.75% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
| 94 |
Alize Cornet |
1569 |
50.31% |
13.25% |
5.40% |
2.30% |
0.78% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 95 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1488 |
13.98% |
5.40% |
1.68% |
0.54% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 96 |
Kiki Bertens |
1803 |
86.02% |
68.36% |
47.87% |
35.05% |
22.68% |
14.03% |
7.63% |
| 97 |
Angelique Kerber |
1749 |
76.30% |
48.97% |
35.32% |
24.27% |
13.04% |
7.04% |
3.31% |
| 98 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1546 |
23.70% |
8.63% |
3.88% |
1.61% |
0.46% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 99 |
Wang Yafan |
1569 |
33.97% |
11.07% |
5.34% |
2.38% |
0.74% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
| 100 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1685 |
66.03% |
31.33% |
20.10% |
12.15% |
5.49% |
2.48% |
0.95% |
| 101 |
Astra Sharma |
1526 |
51.87% |
19.33% |
5.51% |
2.13% |
0.56% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 102 |
Shelby Rogers |
1513 |
48.13% |
17.09% |
4.62% |
1.71% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 103 |
Dayana Yastremska |
1621 |
51.33% |
32.94% |
13.26% |
6.86% |
2.55% |
0.93% |
0.29% |
| 104 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1612 |
48.67% |
30.64% |
11.96% |
6.04% |
2.17% |
0.77% |
0.23% |
| 105 |
Elise Mertens |
1650 |
65.75% |
46.02% |
25.54% |
12.32% |
5.02% |
2.03% |
0.69% |
| 106 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1537 |
34.25% |
18.79% |
7.52% |
2.51% |
0.69% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 107 |
Diane Parry |
1500 |
49.21% |
17.15% |
6.05% |
1.76% |
0.42% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 108 |
Vera Lapko |
1505 |
50.79% |
18.05% |
6.49% |
1.93% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 109 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1612 |
72.70% |
36.22% |
19.88% |
8.58% |
3.09% |
1.10% |
0.32% |
| 110 |
Mandy Minella |
1442 |
27.30% |
7.73% |
2.48% |
0.57% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Luksika Kumkhum |
1459 |
23.96% |
8.53% |
2.92% |
0.72% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 112 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1660 |
76.04% |
47.52% |
29.12% |
14.44% |
6.06% |
2.53% |
0.89% |
| 113 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1722 |
73.77% |
58.41% |
40.41% |
19.57% |
11.63% |
5.85% |
2.54% |
| 114 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1543 |
26.23% |
15.09% |
6.82% |
1.84% |
0.65% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 115 |
Zarina Diyas |
1479 |
46.99% |
11.90% |
4.36% |
0.91% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Audrey Albie |
1500 |
53.01% |
14.61% |
5.75% |
1.31% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 117 |
Zhang Shuai |
1533 |
59.70% |
23.42% |
8.64% |
2.24% |
0.76% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 118 |
Varvara Lepchenko |
1465 |
40.30% |
12.28% |
3.56% |
0.70% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 119 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1551 |
36.86% |
20.82% |
8.15% |
2.27% |
0.82% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 120 |
Julia Gorges |
1645 |
63.14% |
43.49% |
22.30% |
8.60% |
4.20% |
1.67% |
0.56% |
| 121 |
Petra Martic |
1676 |
73.42% |
49.39% |
19.47% |
10.92% |
5.81% |
2.55% |
0.95% |
| 122 |
Ons Jabeur |
1500 |
26.58% |
11.50% |
2.40% |
0.79% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Fiona Ferro |
1468 |
33.46% |
9.74% |
1.79% |
0.52% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1588 |
66.54% |
29.36% |
8.60% |
3.80% |
1.56% |
0.51% |
0.14% |
| 125 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1611 |
71.48% |
19.79% |
9.91% |
4.69% |
2.07% |
0.73% |
0.22% |
| 126 |
Kristina Kucova |
1451 |
28.52% |
4.15% |
1.22% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Madison Brengle |
1451 |
10.40% |
3.59% |
1.05% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1825 |
89.60% |
72.46% |
55.55% |
41.20% |
29.72% |
19.04% |
10.91% |
