The French Open is starting today, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of my percentage odds for you to view.
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- Novak Djokovic is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 26.99% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 25.22%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 22.28% and Juan Martin del Potro 4th with 6.06%
- Matthew Ebden has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 71st most likely winner, while he is only the 94th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Peter Gojowczyk has a tough draw. He is the 91st most likely winner, but he is the 70th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Pierre-Hugues Herbert, as he's the 106th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 35th of the competitors.
- Kimmer Coppejans got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 66th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 115th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1979 |
92.55% |
84.87% |
78.65% |
68.92% |
57.93% |
45.66% |
26.99% |
| 2 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1541 |
7.45% |
3.59% |
1.83% |
0.71% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Sam Querrey |
1594 |
66.97% |
8.99% |
5.27% |
2.40% |
0.94% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
| 4 |
Pedro Martinez |
1472 |
33.03% |
2.55% |
1.06% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 5 |
Jaume Munar |
1557 |
63.26% |
34.10% |
4.90% |
1.99% |
0.69% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 6 |
Salvatore Caruso |
1463 |
36.74% |
14.97% |
1.45% |
0.42% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Sergiy Stakhovsky |
1457 |
34.69% |
14.18% |
1.34% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Gilles Simon |
1567 |
65.31% |
36.75% |
5.50% |
2.31% |
0.83% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
| 9 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1614 |
46.11% |
27.98% |
13.91% |
2.94% |
1.23% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
| 10 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1641 |
53.89% |
34.64% |
18.45% |
4.28% |
1.94% |
0.74% |
0.15% |
| 11 |
Radu Albot |
1573 |
63.78% |
26.80% |
11.88% |
2.17% |
0.79% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
| 12 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1474 |
36.22% |
10.57% |
3.41% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Lloyd Harris |
1446 |
45.26% |
10.83% |
3.23% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
Lukas Rosol |
1479 |
54.74% |
14.99% |
5.07% |
0.65% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1521 |
25.94% |
15.07% |
5.93% |
0.89% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 16 |
Borna Coric |
1704 |
74.06% |
59.11% |
38.11% |
10.84% |
5.82% |
2.67% |
0.69% |
| 17 |
Fabio Fognini |
1701 |
74.29% |
57.20% |
33.48% |
19.10% |
5.83% |
2.66% |
0.68% |
| 18 |
Andreas Seppi |
1517 |
25.71% |
13.81% |
4.69% |
1.59% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 19 |
Guillermo Garcia Lopez |
1476 |
46.02% |
12.57% |
3.66% |
1.08% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Federico Delbonis |
1504 |
53.98% |
16.42% |
5.32% |
1.73% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Taylor Fritz |
1596 |
63.23% |
25.55% |
12.09% |
5.27% |
1.12% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
| 22 |
Bernard Tomic |
1502 |
36.77% |
10.58% |
3.73% |
1.20% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Steve Johnson |
1541 |
27.28% |
12.87% |
5.18% |
1.91% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 24 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1712 |
72.72% |
50.99% |
31.85% |
18.59% |
5.86% |
2.75% |
0.73% |
| 25 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1575 |
64.94% |
37.68% |
14.34% |
5.72% |
1.13% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
| 26 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1468 |
35.06% |
15.00% |
3.95% |
1.07% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Cameron Norrie |
1537 |
56.22% |
28.10% |
9.48% |
3.33% |
0.57% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 28 |
Elliot Benchetrit |
1494 |
43.78% |
19.22% |
5.57% |
1.67% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Mikael Ymer |
1447 |
45.74% |
8.91% |
3.39% |
0.84% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Blaz Rola |
1477 |
54.26% |
12.00% |
5.06% |
1.42% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
John Millman |
1532 |
21.52% |
12.86% |
6.42% |
2.22% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Alexander Zverev |
1757 |
78.48% |
66.23% |
51.78% |
33.26% |
12.02% |
6.37% |
2.00% |
| 33 |
Dominic Thiem |
1791 |
83.75% |
71.07% |
54.18% |
37.85% |
22.92% |
9.59% |
3.38% |
| 34 |
Tommy Paul |
1506 |
16.25% |
8.46% |
3.29% |
1.09% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Rudolf Molleker |
1489 |
49.44% |
10.03% |
3.68% |
1.15% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Alexander Bublik |
1493 |
50.56% |
10.43% |
3.88% |
1.23% |
0.31% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Maxime Janvier |
1490 |
36.70% |
12.54% |
3.13% |
0.98% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1585 |
63.30% |
29.86% |
10.39% |
4.49% |
1.58% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
| 39 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1576 |
42.80% |
22.95% |
7.75% |
3.26% |
1.11% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Kyle Edmund |
1626 |
57.20% |
34.65% |
13.71% |
6.68% |
2.68% |
0.66% |
0.13% |
| 41 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1655 |
64.04% |
44.34% |
23.24% |
10.55% |
4.60% |
1.25% |
0.27% |
| 42 |
Daniel Evans |
1554 |
35.96% |
20.10% |
7.94% |
2.63% |
0.83% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
| 43 |
Antoine Hoang |
1487 |
43.47% |
14.01% |
4.42% |
1.14% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1533 |
56.53% |
21.54% |
7.94% |
2.44% |
0.72% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 45 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1457 |
41.39% |
9.93% |
3.27% |
0.75% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1517 |
58.61% |
17.77% |
7.23% |
2.09% |
0.58% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Taro Daniel |
1468 |
19.18% |
8.92% |
3.06% |
0.73% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Gael Monfils |
1718 |
80.82% |
63.38% |
42.90% |
22.96% |
11.83% |
3.99% |
1.08% |
| 49 |
Karen Khachanov |
1671 |
76.47% |
58.28% |
39.05% |
16.95% |
7.94% |
2.29% |
0.52% |
| 50 |
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe |
1466 |
23.53% |
11.71% |
4.53% |
0.97% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Gregoire Barrere |
1442 |
43.40% |
11.75% |
4.16% |
0.81% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Matthew Ebden |
1488 |
56.60% |
18.27% |
7.61% |
1.79% |
0.45% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Martin Klizan |
1575 |
59.47% |
32.66% |
15.78% |
5.09% |
1.76% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
| 54 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1508 |
40.53% |
18.41% |
7.29% |
1.85% |
0.50% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Simone Bolelli |
1508 |
41.99% |
18.61% |
7.36% |
1.87% |
0.50% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 56 |
Lucas Pouille |
1564 |
58.01% |
30.33% |
14.22% |
4.42% |
1.47% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
| 57 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1617 |
67.69% |
41.86% |
14.02% |
7.65% |
3.05% |
0.73% |
0.13% |
| 58 |
Jordan Thompson |
1489 |
32.31% |
14.13% |
2.96% |
1.10% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1501 |
42.09% |
16.67% |
3.66% |
1.42% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1556 |
57.91% |
27.34% |
7.41% |
3.42% |
1.11% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
| 61 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1545 |
53.37% |
11.36% |
5.39% |
2.40% |
0.75% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 62 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1521 |
46.63% |
9.00% |
3.97% |
1.65% |
0.47% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1553 |
16.47% |
8.68% |
4.21% |
1.92% |
0.62% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 64 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1835 |
83.53% |
70.96% |
58.39% |
46.69% |
31.75% |
14.94% |
6.06% |
| 65 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1790 |
88.89% |
75.51% |
58.52% |
38.81% |
16.03% |
6.58% |
2.77% |
| 66 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1429 |
11.11% |
4.61% |
1.43% |
0.30% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Prajnesh Gunneswaran |
1467 |
44.42% |
8.06% |
2.89% |
0.71% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Hugo Dellien |
1506 |
55.58% |
11.82% |
4.85% |
1.39% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1510 |
53.13% |
19.28% |
4.98% |
1.45% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 70 |
Alexandre Muller |
1488 |
46.87% |
15.68% |
3.74% |
1.00% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 71 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1627 |
56.17% |
37.93% |
14.53% |
6.41% |
1.61% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
| 72 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1584 |
43.83% |
27.11% |
9.06% |
3.47% |
0.75% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 73 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1696 |
77.51% |
51.11% |
27.32% |
13.61% |
4.28% |
1.31% |
0.41% |
| 74 |
Jozef Kovalik |
1481 |
22.49% |
8.19% |
2.14% |
0.53% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Reilly Opelka |
1523 |
37.32% |
12.50% |
3.85% |
1.12% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Christian Garin |
1613 |
62.68% |
28.20% |
11.88% |
4.67% |
1.12% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
| 77 |
Janko Tipsarevic |
1472 |
25.78% |
6.53% |
1.90% |
0.45% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1656 |
74.22% |
34.91% |
18.50% |
8.27% |
2.29% |
0.61% |
0.17% |
| 79 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1424 |
15.50% |
4.11% |
0.98% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Marin Cilic |
1718 |
84.50% |
54.45% |
33.44% |
17.61% |
5.93% |
1.95% |
0.66% |
| 81 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1558 |
58.05% |
25.40% |
11.68% |
2.06% |
0.63% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 82 |
Nicolas Mahut |
1502 |
41.95% |
15.19% |
5.81% |
0.82% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Robin Haase |
1514 |
32.00% |
15.04% |
5.99% |
0.89% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 84 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1645 |
68.00% |
44.36% |
25.74% |
6.18% |
2.56% |
0.66% |
0.17% |
| 85 |
Jiri Vesely |
1504 |
45.88% |
15.46% |
6.08% |
0.87% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1533 |
54.12% |
20.28% |
8.77% |
1.40% |
0.39% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1590 |
41.94% |
25.13% |
12.85% |
2.54% |
0.88% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 88 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1646 |
58.06% |
39.13% |
23.07% |
5.56% |
2.32% |
0.60% |
0.16% |
| 89 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1614 |
67.75% |
41.84% |
7.86% |
4.15% |
1.56% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
| 90 |
Pablo Andujar |
1485 |
32.25% |
14.04% |
1.61% |
0.57% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Casper Ruud |
1552 |
57.15% |
26.90% |
4.00% |
1.77% |
0.53% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 92 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1502 |
42.85% |
17.22% |
2.11% |
0.79% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Malek Jaziri |
1472 |
47.66% |
3.97% |
1.51% |
0.51% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Oscar Otte |
1489 |
52.34% |
4.70% |
1.88% |
0.67% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 95 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1521 |
7.28% |
4.06% |
1.81% |
0.72% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Roger Federer |
1963 |
92.72% |
87.27% |
79.23% |
70.49% |
56.59% |
35.01% |
22.28% |
| 97 |
Kei Nishikori |
1760 |
86.39% |
56.50% |
45.10% |
28.84% |
10.31% |
4.00% |
1.54% |
| 98 |
Quentin Halys |
1439 |
13.61% |
3.33% |
1.29% |
0.31% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
1690 |
73.15% |
33.38% |
24.24% |
13.29% |
3.83% |
1.19% |
0.36% |
| 100 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1516 |
26.85% |
6.79% |
3.37% |
1.08% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1467 |
48.43% |
18.67% |
3.87% |
1.03% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Ugo Humbert |
1478 |
51.57% |
20.65% |
4.49% |
1.24% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 103 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1528 |
44.78% |
25.94% |
6.94% |
2.33% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 104 |
Laslo Djere |
1564 |
55.22% |
34.75% |
10.71% |
4.07% |
0.75% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 105 |
Alex De Minaur |
1604 |
72.89% |
40.70% |
16.13% |
6.63% |
1.42% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
| 106 |
Bradley Klahn |
1432 |
27.11% |
8.70% |
1.78% |
0.39% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1587 |
58.00% |
31.22% |
11.67% |
4.54% |
0.91% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 108 |
Joao Sousa |
1531 |
42.00% |
19.38% |
5.93% |
1.91% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 109 |
Benoit Paire |
1621 |
71.46% |
26.78% |
15.31% |
6.63% |
1.51% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
| 110 |
Marius Copil |
1462 |
28.54% |
5.67% |
1.99% |
0.49% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1600 |
28.63% |
15.22% |
8.25% |
3.35% |
0.70% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 112 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1759 |
71.37% |
52.33% |
38.94% |
23.86% |
8.49% |
3.27% |
1.26% |
| 113 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1619 |
65.09% |
33.54% |
19.77% |
3.94% |
1.60% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
| 114 |
Juan Ignacio Londero |
1511 |
34.91% |
12.98% |
5.75% |
0.75% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Mischa Zverev |
1447 |
23.33% |
7.45% |
2.68% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Richard Gasquet |
1654 |
76.67% |
46.04% |
29.22% |
6.59% |
2.98% |
0.81% |
0.22% |
| 117 |
Alexey Vatutin |
1498 |
58.06% |
22.41% |
7.84% |
0.98% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 118 |
Corentin Moutet |
1442 |
41.94% |
13.25% |
3.74% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1451 |
26.46% |
12.34% |
3.61% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 120 |
Guido Pella |
1628 |
73.54% |
52.00% |
27.38% |
5.64% |
2.36% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
| 121 |
David Goffin |
1662 |
74.18% |
54.93% |
11.25% |
6.58% |
3.05% |
0.85% |
0.24% |
| 122 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1478 |
25.82% |
12.91% |
1.31% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1503 |
58.59% |
20.57% |
2.32% |
0.86% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Denis Kudla |
1443 |
41.41% |
11.60% |
1.02% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Yannick Maden |
1470 |
51.49% |
3.91% |
1.39% |
0.46% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Kimmer Coppejans |
1460 |
48.51% |
3.51% |
1.20% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Yannick Hanfmann |
1497 |
5.94% |
3.24% |
1.26% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Rafael Nadal |
1976 |
94.06% |
89.34% |
80.24% |
71.63% |
59.44% |
38.67% |
25.22% |
