Monday 31 August 2015

Thanks, FiveThirtyEight! (and another look at methodology)

For writing an article showing just how a professionally done Tennis ELO system could look, and for indirectly giving me some page views. I hope some of my new viewers stick around for my weekly updates.

For those who haven't seen it, this is the FiveThirtyEight article I am referring to.

The article itself focuses on the dominance of Serena Williams and how it compares to dominating players of the past, but as I have only been updating my rankings from the start of this year, I'm not going to comment on the article itself, instead I want to take a look at their methodology and how it compares to my simplified version, which I detailed at the start of the year here.


U.S. Open Predictions - 1st Round

Quick post as I know I'm late, sorry for the inconsistent formatting too, I was on another weekend holiday and had too many late nights, should get back to a regular schedule for my grand slam predictions starting from the next round.

Men's




Aug 31 • 16:00João Sousa-Ričardas Berankis

3:0
Simone Bolelli-David Goffin

1:3
Marco Cecchinato-Mardy Fish

2:3
Kei Nishikori-Benoît Paire

3:0
Marsel İlhan-Radek Štěpánek

1:3
Lu Yen-Hsun-Mikhail Kukushkin

3:1
Matthew Ebden-Grigor Dimitrov

0:3
Aug 31 • 17:30Teymuraz Gabashvili-Pablo Andújar
Tommy Paul-Andreas Seppi
Milos Raonic-Tim Smyczek
Nikoloz Basilashvili-Feliciano López
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Jarkko Nieminen
Lukáš Lacko-Marcel Granollers
Aug 31 • 18:00Fernando Verdasco-Tommy Haas
Marin Čilić-Guido Pella
Aug 31 • 19:00Jerzy Janowicz-Pablo Carreño Busta
Jérémy Chardy-Ryan Shane
Aug 31 • 19:30Novak Djokovic-João Souza
Pablo Cuevas-Dudi Sela
Michael Berrer-Tommy Robredo
Lucas Pouille-Evgeny Donskoy
Florian Mayer-Martin Kližan
Filip Krajinović-Alejandro González
Radu Albot-David Ferrer
Aug 31 • 21:00Vasek Pospisil-Andreas Haider-Maurer
Roberto Bautista-Agut-Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Fabio Fognini-Steve Johnson
Elias Ymer-Diego Schwartzman
Samuel Groth-Alexandr Dolgopolov
Sergiy Stakhovsky-John Millman
Illya Marchenko-Gaël Monfils
Sep 01 • 01:30Borna Ćorić-Rafael Nadal

2nd half

Sep 01 • 16:00Donald Young-Gilles Simon
Austin Krajicek-Santiago Giraldo
Paul-Henri Mathieu-Yoshihito Nishioka
Denis Kudla-Jürgen Melzer
Robin Haase-Dustin Brown
Jiří Veselý-Paolo Lorenzi
Federico Delbonis-Ivo Karlović
Sep 01 • 17:30Ernests Gulbis-Aljaž Bedene
Tomáš Berdych-Bjorn Fratangelo
Thanasi Kokkinakis-Richard Gasquet
John Isner-Malek Jaziri
John-Patrick Smith-Mikhail Youzhny
Philipp Kohlschreiber-Alexander Zverev
Sep 01 • 18:00Kevin Anderson-Andrey Rublev
Thomaz Bellucci-James Ward
Sep 01 • 19:00Daniel Gimeno-Traver-Dominic Thiem
Aleksandr Nedovyesov-Lleyton Hewitt
Sep 01 • 19:30Gilles Müller-Ruben Bemelmans
Benjamin Becker-Denis Istomin
Sam Querrey-Nicolas Mahut
Janko Tipsarević-Guillermo García-López
Jared Donaldson-Lukáš Rosol
Marcos Baghdatis-Steve Darcis
Leonardo Mayer-Roger Federer
Sep 01 • 21:00Chung Hyeon-James Duckworth
Víctor Estrella Burgos-Jack Sock
Viktor Troicki-Frances Tiafoe
Rajeev Ram-Ryan Harrison
Konstantin Kravchuk-Adrian Mannarino
Bernard Tomic-Damir Džumhur
Sep 01 • 22:00Stanislas Wawrinka-Albert Ramos
Sep 01 • 23:01Nick Kyrgios-Andy Murray


Women's

Aug 31 • 16:00Kateřina Siniaková-Agnieszka Radwanska

0:2
Anett Kontaveit-Casey Dellacqua

1:2
Zheng Saisai-Madison Brengle

0:2
Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino-Bojana Jovanovski

2:0
Lauren Davis-Heather Watson

0:2
Teliana Pereira-Ekaterina Makarova

0:2
Sofia Kenin-Mariana Duque Mariño

1:2
Jessica Pegula-Alison Van Uytvanck

2:1
Dominika Cibulkova-Ana Ivanovic

1:2
Aug 31 • 17:30Magda Linette-Urszula Radwanska
Kristina Mladenovic-Svetlana Kuznetsova
Aug 31 • 18:00Mónica Puig-Venus Williams
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova-Magdaléna Rybáriková
Anna Tatishvili-Karolina Pliskova
Elina Svitolina-Elizaveta Kulichkova
Anna-Lena Friedsam-Kaia Kanepi
Océane Dodin-Jelena Jankovic
Aug 31 • 19:30Irina Falconi-Samantha Crawford
Carla Suarez Navarro-Denisa Allertová
Eugenie Bouchard-Alison Riske
Polona Hercog-Zarina Diyas
Aug 31 • 20:00Kateryna Kozlova-Bethanie Mattek-Sands
Coco Vandeweghe-Sloane Stephens
Aug 31 • 21:30Kiki Bertens-Mirjana Lučić-Baroni
Madison Keys-Klara Koukalová
Tereza Smitková-Andreea Mitu
Belinda Bencic-Sesil Karatantcheva
Daniela Hantuchova-Misaki Doi
Ana Konjuh-Tatjana Maria
Vania King-Roberta Vinci
Aug 31 • 22:00Daria Kasatkina-Daria Gavrilova
Sep 01 • 00:00Serena Williams-Vitalia Diatchenko

2nd Half

Sep 01 • 16:00Louisa Chirico-Johanna Konta
Lucie Šafářová-Lesia Tsurenko
Varvara Lepchenko-Kirsten Flipkens
Olga Govortsova-Irina-Camelia Begu
Ajla Tomljanović-Karin Knapp
Alexandra Dulgheru-Angelique Kerber
Timea Bacsinszky-Barbora Zahlavova Strycova
Maria Sakkari-Wang Qiang
Marina Erakovic-Simona Halep
Sep 01 • 17:30Laura Robson-Elena Vesnina
Camila Giorgi-Johanna Larsson
Sep 01 • 18:00Carina Witthöft-Garbine Muquruza
Jeļena Ostapenko-Annika Beck
Christina McHale-Petra Cetkovska
Jamie Loeb-Caroline Wozniacki
Tsvetana Pironkova-Mona Barthel
Yulia Putinsiva-Kateryna Bondarenko
Sep 01 • 19:30Aleksandra Krunić-Danka Kovinić
Andrea Petkovic-Caroline Garcia
Victoria Azarenka-Lucie Hradecka
Francesca Schiavone-Yanina Wickmayer
Aliaksandra Sasnovich-Sabine Lisicki
Sep 01 • 20:00Julia Görges-Anna Karolína Schmiedlová
Sara Errani-Mayo Hibi
Sep 01 • 21:00Shelby Rogers-Sachia Vickery
Sep 01 • 21:30Lourdes Dominguez Lino-Nicole Gibbs
Evgeniya Rodina-Tereza Mrdeža
Tímea Babos-Samantha Stosur
Flavia Pennetta-Jarmila Gajdosova
Alexandra Panova-Monica Niculescu
Alize Cornet-Kurumi Nara
Sep 02 • 02:00Petra Kvitova-Laura Siegemund