Thanks, FiveThirtyEight! (and another look at methodology)

For writing an article showing just how a professionally done Tennis ELO system could look, and for indirectly giving me some page views. I hope some of my new viewers stick around for my weekly updates.

For those who haven't seen it, this is the FiveThirtyEight article I am referring to.

The article itself focuses on the dominance of Serena Williams and how it compares to dominating players of the past, but as I have only been updating my rankings from the start of this year, I'm not going to comment on the article itself, instead I want to take a look at their methodology and how it compares to my simplified version, which I detailed at the start of the year here.

U.S. Open Predictions - 1st Round

Quick post as I know I'm late, sorry for the inconsistent formatting too, I was on another weekend holiday and had too many late nights, should get back to a regular schedule for my grand slam predictions starting from the next round.

Men's

	Aug 31 • 16:00	João Sousa		-		Ričardas Berankis				3	:	0
		Simone Bolelli		-		David Goffin				1	:	3
		Marco Cecchinato		-		Mardy Fish				2	:	3
		Kei Nishikori		-		Benoît Paire				3	:	0
		Marsel İlhan		-		Radek Štěpánek				1	:	3
		Lu Yen-Hsun		-		Mikhail Kukushkin				3	:	1
		Matthew Ebden		-		Grigor Dimitrov				0	:	3
	Aug 31 • 17:30	Teymuraz Gabashvili		-		Pablo Andújar				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Tommy Paul		-		Andreas Seppi				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Milos Raonic		-		Tim Smyczek				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Nikoloz Basilashvili		-		Feliciano López				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Jo-Wilfried Tsonga		-		Jarkko Nieminen				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Lukáš Lacko		-		Marcel Granollers				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
	Aug 31 • 18:00	Fernando Verdasco		-		Tommy Haas				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Marin Čilić		-		Guido Pella				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
	Aug 31 • 19:00	Jerzy Janowicz		-		Pablo Carreño Busta				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Jérémy Chardy		-		Ryan Shane				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
	Aug 31 • 19:30	Novak Djokovic		-		João Souza				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Pablo Cuevas		-		Dudi Sela				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Michael Berrer		-		Tommy Robredo				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Lucas Pouille		-		Evgeny Donskoy				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Florian Mayer		-		Martin Kližan				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Filip Krajinović		-		Alejandro González				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Radu Albot		-		David Ferrer				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
	Aug 31 • 21:00	Vasek Pospisil		-		Andreas Haider-Maurer				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Roberto Bautista-Agut		-		Pierre-Hugues Herbert				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Fabio Fognini		-		Steve Johnson				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Elias Ymer		-		Diego Schwartzman				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Samuel Groth		-		Alexandr Dolgopolov				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Sergiy Stakhovsky		-		John Millman				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
		Illya Marchenko		-		Gaël Monfils				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3
	Sep 01 • 01:30	Borna Ćorić		-		Rafael Nadal				3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

2nd half

Sep 01 • 16:00

Donald Young

-

Gilles Simon

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Austin Krajicek

-

Santiago Giraldo

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Paul-Henri Mathieu

-

Yoshihito Nishioka

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Denis Kudla

-

Jürgen Melzer

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Robin Haase

-

Dustin Brown

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Jiří Veselý

-

Paolo Lorenzi

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Federico Delbonis

-

Ivo Karlović

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sep 01 • 17:30

Ernests Gulbis

-

Aljaž Bedene

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Tomáš Berdych

-

Bjorn Fratangelo

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Thanasi Kokkinakis

-

Richard Gasquet

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

John Isner

-

Malek Jaziri

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

John-Patrick Smith

-

Mikhail Youzhny

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Philipp Kohlschreiber

-

Alexander Zverev

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sep 01 • 18:00

Kevin Anderson

-

Andrey Rublev

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Thomaz Bellucci

-

James Ward

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sep 01 • 19:00

Daniel Gimeno-Traver

-

Dominic Thiem

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Aleksandr Nedovyesov

-

Lleyton Hewitt

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sep 01 • 19:30

Gilles Müller

-

Ruben Bemelmans

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Benjamin Becker

-

Denis Istomin

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sam Querrey

-

Nicolas Mahut

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Janko Tipsarević

-

Guillermo García-López

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Jared Donaldson

-

Lukáš Rosol

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Marcos Baghdatis

-

Steve Darcis

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Leonardo Mayer

-

Roger Federer

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sep 01 • 21:00

Chung Hyeon

-

James Duckworth

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Víctor Estrella Burgos

-

Jack Sock

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Viktor Troicki

-

Frances Tiafoe

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Rajeev Ram

-

Ryan Harrison

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Konstantin Kravchuk

-

Adrian Mannarino

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Bernard Tomic

-

Damir Džumhur

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sep 01 • 22:00

Stanislas Wawrinka

-

Albert Ramos

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Sep 01 • 23:01

Nick Kyrgios

-

Andy Murray

3:0 3:1 3:2  ---  2:3 1:3 0:3

Women's

	Aug 31 • 16:00	Kateřina Siniaková		-		Agnieszka Radwanska				0	:	2
		Anett Kontaveit		-		Casey Dellacqua				1	:	2
		Zheng Saisai		-		Madison Brengle				0	:	2
		Lara Arruabarrena-Vecino		-		Bojana Jovanovski				2	:	0
		Lauren Davis		-		Heather Watson				0	:	2
		Teliana Pereira		-		Ekaterina Makarova				0	:	2
		Sofia Kenin		-		Mariana Duque Mariño				1	:	2
		Jessica Pegula		-		Alison Van Uytvanck				2	:	1
		Dominika Cibulkova		-		Ana Ivanovic				1	:	2
	Aug 31 • 17:30	Magda Linette		-		Urszula Radwanska				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Kristina Mladenovic		-		Svetlana Kuznetsova				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
	Aug 31 • 18:00	Mónica Puig		-		Venus Williams				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova		-		Magdaléna Rybáriková				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Anna Tatishvili		-		Karolina Pliskova				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Elina Svitolina		-		Elizaveta Kulichkova				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Anna-Lena Friedsam		-		Kaia Kanepi				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Océane Dodin		-		Jelena Jankovic				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
	Aug 31 • 19:30	Irina Falconi		-		Samantha Crawford				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Carla Suarez Navarro		-		Denisa Allertová				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Eugenie Bouchard		-		Alison Riske				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Polona Hercog		-		Zarina Diyas				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
	Aug 31 • 20:00	Kateryna Kozlova		-		Bethanie Mattek-Sands				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Coco Vandeweghe		-		Sloane Stephens				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
	Aug 31 • 21:30	Kiki Bertens		-		Mirjana Lučić-Baroni				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Madison Keys		-		Klara Koukalová				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Tereza Smitková		-		Andreea Mitu				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Belinda Bencic		-		Sesil Karatantcheva				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Daniela Hantuchova		-		Misaki Doi				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Ana Konjuh		-		Tatjana Maria				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
		Vania King		-		Roberta Vinci				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
	Aug 31 • 22:00	Daria Kasatkina		-		Daria Gavrilova				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2
	Sep 01 • 00:00	Serena Williams		-		Vitalia Diatchenko				2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

2nd Half

Sep 01 • 16:00

Louisa Chirico

-

Johanna Konta

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Lucie Šafářová

-

Lesia Tsurenko

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Varvara Lepchenko

-

Kirsten Flipkens

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Olga Govortsova

-

Irina-Camelia Begu

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Ajla Tomljanović

-

Karin Knapp

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Alexandra Dulgheru

-

Angelique Kerber

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Timea Bacsinszky

-

Barbora Zahlavova Strycova

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Maria Sakkari

-

Wang Qiang

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Marina Erakovic

-

Simona Halep

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sep 01 • 17:30

Laura Robson

-

Elena Vesnina

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Camila Giorgi

-

Johanna Larsson

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sep 01 • 18:00

Carina Witthöft

-

Garbine Muquruza

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Jeļena Ostapenko

-

Annika Beck

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Christina McHale

-

Petra Cetkovska

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Jamie Loeb

-

Caroline Wozniacki

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Tsvetana Pironkova

-

Mona Barthel

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Yulia Putinsiva

-

Kateryna Bondarenko

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sep 01 • 19:30

Aleksandra Krunić

-

Danka Kovinić

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Andrea Petkovic

-

Caroline Garcia

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Victoria Azarenka

-

Lucie Hradecka

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Francesca Schiavone

-

Yanina Wickmayer

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Aliaksandra Sasnovich

-

Sabine Lisicki

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sep 01 • 20:00

Julia Görges

-

Anna Karolína Schmiedlová

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sara Errani

-

Mayo Hibi

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sep 01 • 21:00

Shelby Rogers

-

Sachia Vickery

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sep 01 • 21:30

Lourdes Dominguez Lino

-

Nicole Gibbs

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Evgeniya Rodina

-

Tereza Mrdeža

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Tímea Babos

-

Samantha Stosur

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Flavia Pennetta

-

Jarmila Gajdosova

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Alexandra Panova

-

Monica Niculescu

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Alize Cornet

-

Kurumi Nara

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2

Sep 02 • 02:00

Petra Kvitova

-

Laura Siegemund

2:0 2:1  ---  1:2 0:2