2018 ATP Finals Predictions

Next week, the ATP Finals are taking place in London, with the top 8 players over the year taking part.

The 8 players competing this year © Getty Images/ATP World Tour

After the jump, I'll take a look at the players and how I expect the tournament to go. For my latest ranking update for all the men on the ATP World Tour, go here.

The 8 tennis players who will be playing the ATP Finals, coloured by the group they are in, along with their ELO ratings are:

1. Novak Djokovic - 1981
2. Roger Federer - 1931
3. Kei Nishikori - 1805
4. Alexander Zverev - 1796
5. Marin Cilic - 1780
6. Kevin Anderson - 1779
7. Dominic Thiem - 1762
8. John Isner - 1692

The 2 groups are pretty well balanced, which makes a change from previous tournaments. Below, I've estimated the chance for each player to advance from the group, make it to the final, and to win the tournament, ignoring changes in rating following each match.

Kuerten Group	ELO	Adv	Final	Win
Novak Djokovic	1976	84.8%	56.6%	35.1%
Alexander Zverev	1796	47.8%	19.5%	7.4%
Marin Cilic	1780	43.5%	16.8%	6.1%
John Isner	1692	23.8%	6.6%	1.7%

Hewitt Group	ELO	Adv	Final	Win
Roger Federer	1968	81.4%	53.7%	32.4%
Kevin Anderson	1779	38.7%	15.0%	5.4%
Dominic Thiem	1762	34.6%	12.6%	4.3%
Kei Nishikori	1805	45.4%	19.1%	7.5%

(NOTE: Because the finalists could come from the same group or both groups, the numbers for the winner are a best estimate)

Best of luck to all of the players who made it to the ATP Finals, and may the best player win!