Friday 8 November 2019

2019 ATP Finals Predictions

Next week, the ATP Finals are taking place in London, with the top 8 players over the year taking part.

Last year's champion and runner-up, © Getty Images

After the jump, I'll take a look at the players and how I expect the tournament to go. A full update for the Men's ratings will be completed once the tournament concludes.

The 8 tennis players who will be playing the ATP Finals, coloured by the group they are in, along with their ELO ratings are:
  1. Rafael Nadal - 2024
  2. Novak Djokovic - 1991
  3. Roger Federer - 1973
  4. Daniil Medvedev - 1865
  5. Dominic Thiem - 1849
  6. Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1773
  7. Alexander Zverev - 1751
  8. Matteo Berrettini - 1732
The Borg Group is the tougher of the 2 groups, with 3 of the top 5 players in it, just ahead of the Agassi Group, which has the #1 and #4 players.

Below, I've estimated the chance for each player to advance from the group, make it to the final, and to win the tournament, ignoring changes in rating following each match.


Agassi GroupELOAdvFinalWin
Rafael Nadal202486%53%32%
Daniil Medvedev186556%22%9%
Stefanos Tsitsipas177332%9%2%
Alexander Zverev175127%7%2%

Borg GroupELOAdvFinalWin
Novak Djokovic199174%46%26%
Roger Federer197371%42%22%
Dominic Thiem184939%16%6%
Matteo Berrettini173217%5%1%

(NOTE: Because the finalists could come from the same group or both groups, the numbers for the winner are a best estimate)

Best of luck to all of the players who made it to the ATP Finals, and may the best player win!