Next week, the season ending ATP Finals takes place in Turin. After the jump, I'll take a look at the players competing this year and how I expect the tournament to go.
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| Novak Djokovic, last year's champion. © Getty Images |
The 8 tennis players who will be playing the ATP Finals, coloured by the group they are in, along with their ELO ratings and my estimated chances for each player to advance from their group, to make it to the final and to win the title are:
| # | Player | ELO | Adv | Final | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2100 | 90% | 68% | 48% |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1957 | 67% | 34% | 16% |
| 3 | Daniil Medvedev | 1920 | 58% | 26% | 12% |
| 4 | Jannik Sinner | 1891 | 56% | 27% | 10% |
| 5 | Andrey Rublev | 1845 | 38% | 14% | 5% |
| 6 | Alexander Zverev | 1841 | 37% | 13% | 4% |
| 7 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1792 | 30% | 10% | 3% |
| 8 | Holger Rune | 1762 | 24% | 7% | 2% |
The two groups appear to be pretty evenly balanced, though the presence of the ELO #1 in the green group means that the winner is more likely to come from that group than the red group.
(NOTE: Because the finalists could come from the same group or both groups, the numbers for the winner are a best estimate)
