The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
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- Simona Halep is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 16.19% chance of winning the whole thing, with Serena Williams next at 13.59%. The 3rd most likely is Petra Kvitova with 8.62% and Caroline Wozniacki 4th with 7.99%
- Andrea Petkovic has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 85th most likely winner, while she is only the 103rd highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Varvara Lepchenko has a tough draw. She is the 114th most likely winner, but she is the 90th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Aliaksandra Sasnovich, as she's the 122nd most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 57th of the competitors.
- Viktorija Golubic got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 47th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 108th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
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| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Simona Halep |
1864 |
92.80% |
80.29% |
66.73% |
53.37% |
36.14% |
25.44% |
16.19% |
| 2 |
Kurumi Nara |
1420 |
7.20% |
2.55% |
0.73% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Zheng Saisai |
1396 |
26.15% |
2.41% |
0.62% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Wang Qiang |
1576 |
73.85% |
14.75% |
7.24% |
3.20% |
1.00% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
| 5 |
Ana Bogdan |
1542 |
52.82% |
21.27% |
4.45% |
1.76% |
0.48% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 6 |
Lara Arruabarrena |
1522 |
47.18% |
17.75% |
3.44% |
1.27% |
0.32% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 7 |
Hseih Su-Wei |
1565 |
39.19% |
21.39% |
4.88% |
2.08% |
0.62% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| 8 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1641 |
60.81% |
39.58% |
11.91% |
6.35% |
2.48% |
1.01% |
0.35% |
| 9 |
Johanna Konta |
1653 |
72.73% |
42.03% |
24.09% |
8.49% |
3.44% |
1.46% |
0.52% |
| 10 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1483 |
27.27% |
9.27% |
3.20% |
0.60% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Alize Cornet |
1574 |
43.79% |
19.86% |
9.24% |
2.48% |
0.77% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
| 12 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1617 |
56.21% |
28.84% |
15.13% |
4.74% |
1.71% |
0.65% |
0.20% |
| 13 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1519 |
52.59% |
17.87% |
6.64% |
1.45% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 14 |
Sachia Vickery |
1501 |
47.41% |
15.05% |
5.24% |
1.06% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 15 |
Danielle Collins |
1556 |
33.27% |
18.82% |
7.95% |
2.00% |
0.58% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 16 |
Elise Mertens |
1677 |
66.73% |
48.25% |
28.52% |
10.83% |
4.72% |
2.16% |
0.84% |
| 17 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1666 |
73.55% |
49.56% |
23.82% |
10.44% |
4.11% |
1.82% |
0.68% |
| 18 |
Katy Dunne |
1488 |
26.45% |
11.39% |
3.04% |
0.73% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 19 |
Heather Watson |
1473 |
35.90% |
11.08% |
2.79% |
0.63% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1573 |
64.10% |
27.97% |
10.16% |
3.33% |
0.96% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 21 |
Sofia Kenin |
1531 |
46.36% |
12.77% |
5.21% |
1.47% |
0.36% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 22 |
Maria Sakkari |
1556 |
53.64% |
16.22% |
7.16% |
2.21% |
0.60% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 23 |
Vitalia Diatchenko |
1426 |
13.28% |
4.46% |
1.24% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Maria Sharapova |
1752 |
86.72% |
66.54% |
46.57% |
25.50% |
12.78% |
7.16% |
3.49% |
| 25 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1631 |
65.48% |
38.46% |
14.14% |
6.35% |
2.24% |
0.89% |
0.29% |
| 26 |
Zarina Diyas |
1520 |
34.52% |
14.80% |
3.72% |
1.15% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 27 |
Peng Shuai |
1565 |
48.67% |
22.43% |
6.63% |
2.41% |
0.68% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
| 28 |
Samantha Stosur |
1575 |
51.33% |
24.31% |
7.42% |
2.78% |
0.81% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
| 29 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1533 |
59.94% |
12.95% |
5.50% |
1.79% |
0.44% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 30 |
Taylor Townsend |
1463 |
40.06% |
6.41% |
2.13% |
0.53% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1541 |
16.75% |
9.23% |
4.03% |
1.35% |
0.34% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Petra Kvitova |
1820 |
83.25% |
71.41% |
56.45% |
39.11% |
22.93% |
14.90% |
8.62% |
| 33 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1742 |
83.03% |
66.88% |
49.75% |
30.56% |
17.17% |
7.87% |
3.73% |
| 34 |
Naomi Broady |
1466 |
16.97% |
7.78% |
3.02% |
0.80% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1506 |
53.54% |
14.17% |
6.25% |
1.94% |
0.52% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 36 |
Polona Hercog |
1482 |
46.46% |
11.16% |
4.55% |
1.29% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Jennifer Brady |
1460 |
47.94% |
15.92% |
4.18% |
1.09% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 38 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1475 |
52.06% |
18.23% |
5.06% |
1.39% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 39 |
Denisa Allertova |
1504 |
33.32% |
18.40% |
5.68% |
1.75% |
0.46% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 40 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1625 |
66.68% |
47.46% |
21.51% |
9.87% |
4.01% |
1.26% |
0.41% |
| 41 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1705 |
78.97% |
61.68% |
36.96% |
21.37% |
10.96% |
4.50% |
1.91% |
| 42 |
Stefanie Vogele |
1475 |
21.03% |
10.24% |
3.16% |
0.92% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Gabriella Taylor |
1490 |
51.94% |
14.95% |
4.88% |
1.50% |
0.38% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1477 |
48.06% |
13.13% |
4.08% |
1.20% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 45 |
Magda Linette |
1458 |
41.99% |
10.29% |
3.07% |
0.84% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1514 |
58.01% |
17.71% |
6.44% |
2.16% |
0.59% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 47 |
Jana Fett |
1495 |
22.21% |
11.24% |
3.83% |
1.20% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1713 |
77.79% |
60.75% |
37.57% |
22.11% |
11.57% |
4.87% |
2.12% |
| 49 |
Angelique Kerber |
1774 |
82.96% |
65.32% |
47.27% |
31.44% |
19.76% |
9.90% |
5.12% |
| 50 |
Vera Zvonareva |
1499 |
17.04% |
7.47% |
2.78% |
0.88% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 51 |
Ana Konjuh |
1579 |
64.14% |
19.76% |
9.42% |
3.91% |
1.44% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
| 52 |
Claire Liu |
1478 |
35.86% |
7.45% |
2.58% |
0.76% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Katie Boulter |
1494 |
55.52% |
17.25% |
4.47% |
1.39% |
0.38% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 54 |
Veronica Cepede Royg |
1455 |
44.48% |
11.86% |
2.64% |
0.71% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Monica Niculescu |
1539 |
30.76% |
18.10% |
5.56% |
2.03% |
0.65% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 56 |
Naomi Osaka |
1680 |
69.24% |
52.80% |
25.29% |
13.83% |
6.95% |
2.64% |
1.03% |
| 57 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1604 |
67.68% |
43.08% |
17.85% |
7.05% |
2.83% |
0.82% |
0.25% |
| 58 |
Carina Witthoft |
1476 |
32.32% |
14.73% |
3.90% |
0.97% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 59 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1489 |
45.40% |
18.08% |
5.04% |
1.32% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1521 |
54.60% |
24.12% |
7.57% |
2.24% |
0.67% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 61 |
Alison Riske |
1572 |
65.46% |
21.56% |
11.62% |
4.13% |
1.49% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
| 62 |
Mariana Duque Marino |
1461 |
34.54% |
7.39% |
2.84% |
0.67% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Belinda Bencic |
1509 |
20.05% |
9.33% |
4.21% |
1.20% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 64 |
Caroline Garcia |
1750 |
79.95% |
61.72% |
46.96% |
27.49% |
16.41% |
7.69% |
3.73% |
| 65 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1777 |
83.97% |
53.22% |
39.55% |
27.88% |
18.79% |
9.41% |
4.84% |
| 66 |
Harriet Dart |
1489 |
16.03% |
4.35% |
1.57% |
0.53% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 67 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1460 |
18.36% |
3.49% |
1.13% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1719 |
81.64% |
38.94% |
26.30% |
16.70% |
10.04% |
4.25% |
1.85% |
| 69 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1568 |
64.44% |
27.49% |
7.89% |
3.43% |
1.37% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
| 70 |
Katie Swan |
1464 |
35.56% |
10.35% |
1.93% |
0.59% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 71 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1608 |
46.98% |
28.51% |
9.52% |
4.65% |
2.10% |
0.61% |
0.18% |
| 72 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1629 |
53.02% |
33.65% |
12.11% |
6.26% |
3.00% |
0.94% |
0.30% |
| 73 |
Kiki Bertens |
1628 |
69.85% |
48.44% |
24.29% |
9.85% |
4.72% |
1.47% |
0.47% |
| 74 |
Barbora Stefkova |
1482 |
30.15% |
14.93% |
4.71% |
1.11% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 75 |
Wang Yafan |
1506 |
56.80% |
22.30% |
7.67% |
2.00% |
0.64% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 76 |
Anna Blinkova |
1458 |
43.20% |
14.34% |
4.14% |
0.88% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 77 |
Alexandra Dulgheru |
1452 |
39.56% |
9.19% |
3.33% |
0.69% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1526 |
60.44% |
18.93% |
8.71% |
2.45% |
0.85% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 79 |
Johanna Larsson |
1562 |
29.81% |
17.66% |
9.01% |
2.92% |
1.14% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
| 80 |
Venus Williams |
1711 |
70.19% |
54.23% |
38.15% |
19.73% |
11.65% |
4.82% |
2.05% |
| 81 |
Julia Gorges |
1704 |
65.48% |
50.21% |
31.88% |
19.68% |
10.33% |
4.18% |
1.74% |
| 82 |
Monica Puig |
1593 |
34.52% |
21.90% |
10.51% |
4.99% |
1.88% |
0.51% |
0.14% |
| 83 |
Vera Lapko |
1510 |
54.03% |
15.86% |
5.80% |
2.14% |
0.59% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 84 |
Christina McHale |
1482 |
45.97% |
12.04% |
3.96% |
1.33% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1592 |
58.45% |
25.85% |
11.83% |
5.59% |
2.09% |
0.57% |
0.16% |
| 86 |
Timea Babos |
1532 |
41.55% |
14.98% |
5.69% |
2.26% |
0.68% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 87 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1615 |
45.54% |
25.88% |
12.66% |
6.37% |
2.58% |
0.77% |
0.23% |
| 88 |
Barbora Strycova |
1646 |
54.46% |
33.28% |
17.67% |
9.61% |
4.28% |
1.43% |
0.49% |
| 89 |
Zhang Shuai |
1535 |
58.45% |
32.13% |
11.64% |
4.35% |
1.33% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
| 90 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1476 |
41.55% |
19.30% |
5.67% |
1.70% |
0.41% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Mona Barthel |
1506 |
51.50% |
25.39% |
8.30% |
2.79% |
0.76% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 92 |
Yanina Wickmayer |
1495 |
48.50% |
23.18% |
7.31% |
2.36% |
0.62% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 93 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1515 |
55.94% |
15.94% |
8.15% |
2.83% |
0.80% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 94 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1473 |
44.06% |
10.62% |
4.80% |
1.43% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
Donna Vekic |
1538 |
24.88% |
13.91% |
7.57% |
2.86% |
0.88% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 96 |
Sloane Stephens |
1730 |
75.12% |
59.53% |
46.57% |
29.71% |
16.63% |
7.29% |
3.29% |
| 97 |
Elina Svitolina |
1812 |
88.16% |
75.27% |
38.68% |
29.35% |
19.08% |
12.71% |
7.14% |
| 98 |
Tatjana Maria |
1463 |
11.84% |
5.23% |
0.87% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1477 |
43.17% |
7.49% |
1.32% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 100 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1525 |
56.83% |
12.01% |
2.53% |
1.01% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 101 |
Tereza Smitkova |
1419 |
40.89% |
4.39% |
0.74% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Viktoriya Tomova |
1483 |
59.11% |
8.47% |
1.84% |
0.63% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Arantxa Rus |
1495 |
10.87% |
6.03% |
1.37% |
0.50% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 104 |
Serena Williams |
1861 |
89.13% |
81.11% |
52.65% |
42.38% |
29.98% |
21.70% |
13.59% |
| 105 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1603 |
62.66% |
43.46% |
20.88% |
5.09% |
1.93% |
0.75% |
0.22% |
| 106 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1513 |
37.34% |
21.46% |
7.80% |
1.31% |
0.36% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 107 |
Evgeniya Rodina |
1442 |
45.09% |
14.73% |
4.12% |
0.50% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 108 |
Antonia Lottner |
1476 |
54.91% |
20.35% |
6.48% |
0.92% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 109 |
Luksika Kumkhum |
1464 |
39.23% |
10.28% |
4.15% |
0.56% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Bernada Pera |
1540 |
60.77% |
21.26% |
10.80% |
2.03% |
0.62% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 111 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1519 |
26.23% |
13.45% |
6.45% |
1.11% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 112 |
Madison Keys |
1699 |
73.77% |
55.01% |
39.32% |
13.69% |
6.91% |
3.57% |
1.46% |
| 113 |
Coco Vandeweghe |
1641 |
61.25% |
45.72% |
25.33% |
10.07% |
3.26% |
1.43% |
0.48% |
| 114 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1561 |
38.75% |
25.22% |
11.18% |
3.38% |
0.81% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 115 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1473 |
56.72% |
17.82% |
5.83% |
1.24% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Ons Jabeur |
1426 |
43.28% |
11.23% |
3.06% |
0.53% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1563 |
68.05% |
27.13% |
13.41% |
4.08% |
0.99% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
| 118 |
Madison Brengle |
1432 |
31.95% |
7.61% |
2.46% |
0.44% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Camila Giorgi |
1600 |
41.34% |
25.09% |
13.64% |
4.73% |
1.32% |
0.50% |
0.15% |
| 120 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1660 |
58.66% |
40.17% |
25.09% |
10.60% |
3.67% |
1.70% |
0.61% |
| 121 |
Agnieszka Radwanska |
1677 |
74.90% |
47.57% |
19.91% |
12.07% |
4.42% |
2.15% |
0.82% |
| 122 |
Elena Gabriela Ruse |
1487 |
25.10% |
9.45% |
1.99% |
0.69% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Kateryna Bondarenko |
1481 |
30.91% |
9.46% |
1.94% |
0.66% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Lucie Safarova |
1621 |
69.09% |
33.52% |
11.70% |
6.18% |
1.86% |
0.76% |
0.24% |
| 125 |
Petra Martic |
1573 |
45.03% |
11.54% |
4.98% |
2.30% |
0.58% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| 126 |
Ekaterina Makarova |
1607 |
54.97% |
16.04% |
7.68% |
3.92% |
1.12% |
0.44% |
0.13% |
| 127 |
Varvara Lepchenko |
1488 |
13.33% |
4.73% |
1.52% |
0.53% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1813 |
86.67% |
67.68% |
50.27% |
38.58% |
20.86% |
13.92% |
7.85% |
