The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Men's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Roger Federer is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 32.09% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 26.11%. The 3rd most likely is Novak Djokovic with 7.78% and Andy Murray 4th with 5.89%
- Dennis Novak has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 74th most likely winner, while he is only the 95th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Federico Delbonis has the toughest draw. He is the 110th most likely winner, but he is the 76th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Benoit Paire, as he's the 123rd most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 34th of the competitors.
- Laslo Djere got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 46th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 96th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Roger Federer |
1978 |
92.03% |
87.00% |
81.07% |
72.14% |
63.36% |
51.51% |
32.09% |
| 2 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1553 |
7.97% |
4.79% |
2.62% |
1.15% |
0.46% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 3 |
Lukas Lacko |
1454 |
42.92% |
3.07% |
1.25% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Benjamin Bonzi |
1503 |
57.08% |
5.14% |
2.45% |
0.92% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1510 |
62.61% |
28.17% |
3.37% |
1.29% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 6 |
Mikhail Youzhny |
1420 |
37.39% |
12.29% |
1.01% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1525 |
44.95% |
25.58% |
3.26% |
1.31% |
0.47% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 8 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1560 |
55.05% |
33.97% |
4.97% |
2.23% |
0.91% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
| 9 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1584 |
63.59% |
38.60% |
17.60% |
3.29% |
1.45% |
0.49% |
0.08% |
| 10 |
Christian Garin |
1487 |
36.41% |
17.11% |
5.70% |
0.74% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Ryan Harrison |
1526 |
55.80% |
26.11% |
9.95% |
1.51% |
0.55% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 12 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1485 |
44.20% |
18.19% |
6.02% |
0.78% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Guillermo Garcia Lopez |
1515 |
58.33% |
18.27% |
8.65% |
1.26% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Gastao Elias |
1457 |
41.67% |
10.33% |
4.05% |
0.47% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1549 |
29.45% |
17.15% |
8.94% |
1.48% |
0.58% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Borna Coric |
1701 |
70.55% |
54.24% |
39.08% |
10.77% |
6.48% |
3.16% |
0.86% |
| 17 |
Sam Querrey |
1603 |
76.02% |
46.76% |
22.29% |
10.73% |
2.31% |
0.83% |
0.15% |
| 18 |
Jordan Thompson |
1402 |
23.98% |
8.12% |
1.91% |
0.45% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Sergiy Stakhovsky |
1467 |
37.95% |
14.45% |
4.40% |
1.35% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Joao Sousa |
1552 |
62.05% |
30.66% |
12.56% |
5.20% |
0.93% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
| 21 |
Laslo Djere |
1479 |
56.93% |
14.51% |
5.80% |
1.86% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 22 |
Paolo Lorenzi |
1431 |
43.07% |
8.85% |
2.98% |
0.79% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Gael Monfils |
1664 |
49.58% |
37.92% |
24.70% |
13.96% |
3.70% |
1.62% |
0.38% |
| 24 |
Richard Gasquet |
1667 |
50.42% |
38.72% |
25.36% |
14.44% |
3.87% |
1.71% |
0.41% |
| 25 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1646 |
75.14% |
50.59% |
27.56% |
15.24% |
3.81% |
1.58% |
0.34% |
| 26 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1453 |
24.86% |
10.14% |
3.04% |
0.91% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Gilles Muller |
1546 |
59.52% |
25.45% |
10.50% |
4.38% |
0.77% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
| 28 |
Michael Mmoh |
1479 |
40.48% |
13.83% |
4.56% |
1.51% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
John-Patrick Smith |
1419 |
32.32% |
7.65% |
2.25% |
0.59% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Andreas Seppi |
1547 |
67.68% |
25.66% |
11.74% |
4.92% |
0.87% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
| 31 |
Norbert Gombos |
1421 |
18.11% |
6.94% |
2.05% |
0.54% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Kevin Anderson |
1683 |
81.89% |
59.75% |
38.30% |
23.13% |
6.53% |
3.03% |
0.77% |
| 33 |
Marin Cilic |
1806 |
84.91% |
71.02% |
60.20% |
42.33% |
29.67% |
12.95% |
5.13% |
| 34 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1506 |
15.09% |
7.21% |
3.62% |
1.18% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 35 |
Jason Kubler |
1493 |
42.90% |
8.27% |
4.00% |
1.24% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Guido Pella |
1543 |
57.10% |
13.49% |
7.47% |
2.75% |
0.98% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 37 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1451 |
47.73% |
18.39% |
3.65% |
0.97% |
0.24% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1467 |
52.27% |
21.26% |
4.50% |
1.27% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 39 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1507 |
43.40% |
24.63% |
6.09% |
1.99% |
0.62% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 40 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1553 |
56.60% |
35.72% |
10.47% |
3.99% |
1.47% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
| 41 |
Lucas Pouille |
1636 |
74.56% |
54.51% |
25.70% |
11.03% |
5.28% |
1.38% |
0.29% |
| 42 |
Denis Kudla |
1449 |
25.44% |
12.26% |
3.08% |
0.71% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Peter Polansky |
1438 |
43.98% |
13.37% |
3.21% |
0.71% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Dennis Novak |
1480 |
56.02% |
19.86% |
5.62% |
1.46% |
0.41% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 45 |
John Millman |
1542 |
58.06% |
17.79% |
8.55% |
2.75% |
0.97% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 46 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1485 |
41.94% |
10.34% |
4.19% |
1.11% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Liam Broady |
1492 |
19.42% |
8.99% |
3.73% |
1.01% |
0.30% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Milos Raonic |
1739 |
80.58% |
62.88% |
45.92% |
25.50% |
15.77% |
5.73% |
1.80% |
| 49 |
John Isner |
1670 |
75.07% |
46.93% |
28.30% |
15.20% |
6.78% |
1.99% |
0.48% |
| 50 |
Yannick Maden |
1478 |
24.93% |
9.10% |
3.15% |
0.93% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Steve Johnson |
1621 |
69.51% |
34.48% |
18.52% |
8.75% |
3.37% |
0.84% |
0.16% |
| 52 |
Ruben Bemelmans |
1478 |
30.49% |
9.49% |
3.28% |
0.97% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 53 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1556 |
57.11% |
24.19% |
10.01% |
3.88% |
1.20% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
| 54 |
Cameron Norrie |
1506 |
42.89% |
15.46% |
5.40% |
1.77% |
0.45% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Radu Albot |
1420 |
20.26% |
6.92% |
1.73% |
0.41% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1658 |
79.74% |
53.42% |
29.61% |
15.43% |
6.65% |
1.88% |
0.43% |
| 57 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1575 |
66.59% |
38.23% |
14.26% |
6.21% |
2.05% |
0.43% |
0.07% |
| 58 |
Gregoire Barrere |
1455 |
33.41% |
13.48% |
3.24% |
0.92% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Malek Jaziri |
1522 |
49.80% |
24.00% |
7.46% |
2.73% |
0.74% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 60 |
Jared Donaldson |
1524 |
50.20% |
24.29% |
7.59% |
2.79% |
0.76% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 61 |
Yuki Bhambri |
1495 |
60.71% |
13.39% |
5.95% |
1.97% |
0.48% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 62 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1419 |
39.29% |
6.10% |
2.09% |
0.51% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1672 |
39.73% |
30.40% |
20.90% |
11.92% |
5.35% |
1.58% |
0.38% |
| 64 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1745 |
60.27% |
50.11% |
38.52% |
25.64% |
13.93% |
5.14% |
1.65% |
| 65 |
Dominic Thiem |
1769 |
79.32% |
56.17% |
43.04% |
20.84% |
10.74% |
3.60% |
1.45% |
| 66 |
Marcos Baghdatis |
1536 |
20.68% |
8.05% |
3.72% |
0.86% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
David Ferrer |
1586 |
42.86% |
13.85% |
7.40% |
2.05% |
0.58% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 68 |
Karen Khachanov |
1636 |
57.14% |
21.94% |
13.26% |
4.35% |
1.49% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| 69 |
Julien Bennetau |
1538 |
49.25% |
21.77% |
6.47% |
1.50% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 70 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1543 |
50.75% |
22.80% |
6.91% |
1.64% |
0.39% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1556 |
44.31% |
23.16% |
7.38% |
1.83% |
0.47% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 72 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1596 |
55.69% |
32.26% |
11.84% |
3.39% |
1.01% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 73 |
Kyle Edmund |
1661 |
77.26% |
57.68% |
18.88% |
9.40% |
3.51% |
0.79% |
0.22% |
| 74 |
Alex Bolt |
1448 |
22.74% |
10.59% |
1.59% |
0.38% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1491 |
55.81% |
18.87% |
3.36% |
0.96% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Bradley Klahn |
1450 |
44.19% |
12.86% |
1.94% |
0.47% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1490 |
47.99% |
6.79% |
2.60% |
0.74% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Horacio Zeballos |
1504 |
52.01% |
7.82% |
3.13% |
0.94% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1490 |
10.12% |
4.95% |
1.89% |
0.54% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Novak Djokovic |
1869 |
89.88% |
80.43% |
66.61% |
50.13% |
32.45% |
14.89% |
7.78% |
| 81 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1764 |
81.99% |
66.79% |
40.44% |
22.11% |
10.79% |
3.56% |
1.41% |
| 82 |
Denis Istomin |
1501 |
18.01% |
8.92% |
2.54% |
0.63% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Marius Copil |
1452 |
38.21% |
7.43% |
1.76% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Robin Haase |
1536 |
61.79% |
16.85% |
5.44% |
1.53% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Bernard Tomic |
1516 |
52.87% |
13.50% |
4.04% |
1.06% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1496 |
47.13% |
11.12% |
3.09% |
0.75% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 87 |
Christian Harrison |
1469 |
15.76% |
7.03% |
1.77% |
0.39% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
Kei Nishikori |
1760 |
84.24% |
68.34% |
40.92% |
22.17% |
10.71% |
3.48% |
1.36% |
| 89 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1601 |
63.57% |
42.43% |
13.23% |
4.61% |
1.35% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 90 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1504 |
36.43% |
19.50% |
4.27% |
1.04% |
0.21% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1462 |
45.42% |
16.24% |
3.00% |
0.61% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 92 |
Jay Clarke |
1494 |
54.58% |
21.83% |
4.59% |
1.07% |
0.21% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1517 |
47.03% |
8.98% |
4.25% |
1.09% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Taylor Fritz |
1538 |
52.97% |
11.00% |
5.53% |
1.53% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
James Duckworth |
1442 |
9.94% |
3.76% |
1.40% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Alexander Zverev |
1825 |
90.06% |
76.25% |
63.72% |
40.79% |
23.11% |
9.30% |
4.35% |
| 97 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1847 |
82.88% |
68.46% |
37.77% |
28.53% |
12.55% |
7.18% |
3.56% |
| 98 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1573 |
17.12% |
8.58% |
2.03% |
0.85% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 99 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1609 |
64.37% |
16.86% |
4.57% |
2.11% |
0.44% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 100 |
Federico Delbonis |
1506 |
35.63% |
6.10% |
1.10% |
0.37% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Benoit Paire |
1586 |
15.23% |
7.33% |
2.09% |
0.90% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 102 |
Andy Murray |
1884 |
84.77% |
70.98% |
45.92% |
36.31% |
17.56% |
10.90% |
5.89% |
| 103 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1615 |
55.18% |
12.75% |
4.03% |
1.90% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 104 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1579 |
44.82% |
8.94% |
2.48% |
1.05% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 105 |
Jack Sock |
1584 |
64.82% |
35.94% |
14.54% |
3.16% |
0.60% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 106 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1478 |
35.18% |
14.25% |
4.00% |
0.55% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Gilles Simon |
1578 |
62.27% |
33.88% |
13.46% |
2.85% |
0.53% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 108 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1491 |
37.73% |
15.93% |
4.70% |
0.68% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1549 |
68.51% |
21.63% |
10.72% |
2.01% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 110 |
Stephane Robert |
1414 |
31.49% |
5.77% |
1.81% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Matthew Ebden |
1498 |
20.04% |
9.77% |
4.14% |
0.62% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 112 |
David Goffin |
1739 |
79.96% |
62.82% |
46.63% |
17.93% |
5.78% |
2.46% |
0.90% |
| 113 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1651 |
67.35% |
48.65% |
27.29% |
5.98% |
1.90% |
0.60% |
0.16% |
| 114 |
Mirza Basic |
1525 |
32.65% |
18.27% |
7.13% |
0.99% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 115 |
Jiri Vesely |
1511 |
60.05% |
21.93% |
8.17% |
1.07% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Florian Mayer |
1441 |
39.95% |
11.15% |
3.20% |
0.31% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1570 |
60.08% |
25.27% |
12.49% |
2.05% |
0.48% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 118 |
Simone Bolelli |
1499 |
39.92% |
13.21% |
5.26% |
0.66% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Taro Daniel |
1474 |
23.97% |
9.72% |
3.56% |
0.40% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 120 |
Fabio Fognini |
1675 |
76.03% |
51.81% |
32.89% |
7.83% |
2.70% |
0.93% |
0.28% |
| 121 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1536 |
52.53% |
24.58% |
3.03% |
1.22% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 122 |
Alex De Minaur |
1518 |
47.47% |
21.02% |
2.41% |
0.92% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1554 |
48.72% |
26.19% |
3.45% |
1.47% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 124 |
Mischa Zverev |
1563 |
51.28% |
28.21% |
3.85% |
1.69% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 125 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1449 |
46.52% |
3.08% |
1.13% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1473 |
53.48% |
3.96% |
1.58% |
0.51% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Dudi Sela |
1477 |
5.21% |
2.72% |
1.10% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Rafael Nadal |
1981 |
94.79% |
90.24% |
83.45% |
74.22% |
53.95% |
39.76% |
26.11% |
