Right now, it's late on Middle Sunday, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Andy Murray withdrew from the tournament after I made my post.
- Whilst Dennis Novak had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help him to victory, as he lost to Milos Raonic in the 3rd round. Federico Delbonis had the toughest draw and lost his opening match to Feliciano Lopez.
- Before Murray's withdrawal, Benoit Paire has the toughest 1st round draw; he went on to make round 3 before losing to Juan Martin del Potro. Laslo Djere however, had the easiest 1st round draw but lost his match to Paolo Lorenzi
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Roger Federer is still the favourite, and has a 37.38% chance of winning the title, Rafael Nadal is 2nd at 29.71%, Novak Djokovic is 3rd at 11.18%, and 4th is Juan Martin del Potro with 7.79%.
- Mackenzie McDonald, John Isner and Stefanos Tsitsipas have the easiest draws to the title relative to their ranking, as they're the 14th, 7th and 11th most likely players to win, but are the 16th, 9th and 13th highest ranked players remaining.
- 8 players are tied as to the toughest draw relative to their ranking. Mannarino, Monfils, Anderson, Nishikori, Gulbis, Simon, Vesely and Nadal are one position less likely to win than their ranking would suggest.
- As for the next match, Adrian Mannarino has the toughest round 4 match, as he is the 15th most likely player to win their next match, but is the 11th highest ranked player.
- Mackenzie McDonald the easiest 4th round match, he is the 12th most likely to advance to the quarter finals, but is the 16th highest ranked player.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Roger Federer |
1982 |
89.58% |
75.22% |
62.48% |
37.38% |
| 2 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1609 |
10.42% |
3.95% |
1.50% |
0.24% |
| 3 |
Gael Monfils |
1686 |
47.73% |
9.61% |
4.65% |
1.06% |
| 4 |
Kevin Anderson |
1702 |
52.27% |
11.22% |
5.67% |
1.38% |
| 5 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1500 |
19.01% |
5.66% |
0.62% |
0.06% |
| 6 |
Milos Raonic |
1752 |
80.99% |
51.76% |
15.85% |
4.72% |
| 7 |
John Isner |
1684 |
62.42% |
29.23% |
7.00% |
1.59% |
| 8 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1596 |
37.58% |
13.35% |
2.24% |
0.34% |
| 9 |
Karen Khachanov |
1660 |
22.12% |
8.87% |
1.64% |
0.41% |
| 10 |
Novak Djokovic |
1878 |
77.88% |
53.35% |
22.62% |
11.18% |
| 11 |
Kei Nishikori |
1777 |
82.82% |
35.29% |
10.55% |
3.93% |
| 12 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1504 |
17.18% |
2.49% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
| 13 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1858 |
81.48% |
29.79% |
16.61% |
7.79% |
| 14 |
Gilles Simon |
1601 |
18.52% |
2.49% |
0.59% |
0.12% |
| 15 |
Jiri Vesely |
1547 |
7.47% |
1.46% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
| 16 |
Rafael Nadal |
1985 |
92.53% |
66.26% |
47.50% |
29.71% |
