The 2nd week of the US Open is starting up in a few hours time, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
- After receiving the easiest 1st round draw, Lukas Lacko unexpectedly lost to Vasek Pospisil. David Ferrer had the toughest 1st round and lost as expected to Nadal, but he was tied with Stan Wawrinka, who unexpectedly defeated Grigor Dimitrov in round 1.
- Yoshihito Nishioka has the toughest overall draw, and went out in round 1 to Federer. Roberto Carballes Baena defeated Mitchell Krueger, btoh of whom had the easiest overall draw, and then lost in round 2 to Borna Coric.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Rafael Nadal is still the favourite, and has a 35.79% chance of winning the title, Roger Federer is 2nd at 23.5%, Novak Djokovic is 3rd at 16.98%, and 4th is Juan Martin del Potro with 8.04%.
- Nikoloz Basilashvili hav the easiest draws to the title, he is 1 place more likely to win than expected. 7 players (Thiem, Anderson, Raonic, Nishikori, Kohlschreiber, Djokovic, Sousa) are tied as to who has the easiest round 4 match.
- Marin Cilic and David Goffin have the toughest round 4 matches relative to their ranking, as they are the 7th and 10th most likely winners, but are the 5th and 8th highest ranked players in the tournament. John Millman has the toughest overall draw, 1 position less likely to win the title than expected.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Rafael Nadal |
2000 |
92.98% |
75.72% |
57.76% |
35.79% |
| 2 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1551 |
7.02% |
1.75% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
| 3 |
Dominic Thiem |
1735 |
47.77% |
10.42% |
4.42% |
1.23% |
| 4 |
Kevin Anderson |
1751 |
52.23% |
12.11% |
5.39% |
1.59% |
| 5 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1856 |
72.63% |
48.03% |
18.86% |
8.04% |
| 6 |
Borna Coric |
1687 |
27.37% |
11.65% |
2.48% |
0.57% |
| 7 |
John Isner |
1701 |
40.88% |
14.46% |
3.27% |
0.79% |
| 8 |
Milos Raonic |
1765 |
59.12% |
25.86% |
7.46% |
2.33% |
| 9 |
Marin Cilic |
1818 |
58.30% |
36.44% |
11.64% |
4.39% |
| 10 |
David Goffin |
1760 |
41.70% |
22.78% |
5.77% |
1.78% |
| 11 |
Kei Nishikori |
1768 |
68.22% |
31.63% |
8.30% |
2.64% |
| 12 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1635 |
31.78% |
9.15% |
1.33% |
0.25% |
| 13 |
Novak Djokovic |
1938 |
91.47% |
44.44% |
31.93% |
16.98% |
| 14 |
Joao Sousa |
1526 |
8.53% |
0.87% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 15 |
John Millman |
1567 |
8.73% |
1.26% |
0.30% |
0.04% |
| 16 |
Roger Federer |
1975 |
91.27% |
53.42% |
40.55% |
23.50% |
