The 2nd week of the US Open is starting up in a few hours time, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, only Serena Williams is still in. Simona Halep lost her 1st round match to Kaia Kanepi, Petra Kvitova lost in round 3 to Aryna Sabalenka and Angelique Kerber lost in the same round to Dominika Cibulkova.
- After receiving the easiest 1st round draw, Anna Blinkova unexpectedly lost her match to Vera Zvonareva. Johanna Konta had the toughest 1st round match, and lost as expected to Caroline Garcia.
- Magda Linette and Whitney Osuigwe has the toughest overall draws, and both went out in round 1. Francesca di Lorenzo was the only one of 5 players to take advantage of an easy overall draw, but then lost in round 2 to Kiki Bertens.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Serena Williams is now the favourite, and has a 24.54% chance of winning the title, Elina Svitolina is 2nd at 12.95%, Maria Sharapova is 3rd at 9.65%, and 4th is Aryna Sabalenka with 7.99%.
- Madison Keys, Aryna Sabalenka and Lesia Tsurenko have the easiest draws to the title, they are all 3 places more likely to win than expected. Tsurenko has the easiest round 4 match, as she's the 3rd most likely to win her match, and is the 14th best player remaining.
- Ashleigh Barty and Anastasija Sevastova have the toughest round 4 matches relative to their ranking, as they are the 10th and 15th most likely winners, but are the 5th and 10th highest ranked players in the tournament. Sevastova has the toughest overall draw, 4 positions less likely to win the title than expected.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1549 |
14.63% |
3.45% |
0.80% |
0.24% |
| 2 |
Serena Williams |
1856 |
85.37% |
54.85% |
34.81% |
24.54% |
| 3 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1743 |
47.13% |
19.01% |
9.10% |
5.08% |
| 4 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1763 |
52.87% |
22.69% |
11.50% |
6.73% |
| 5 |
Sloane Stephens |
1742 |
52.46% |
23.98% |
9.93% |
5.52% |
| 6 |
Elise Mertens |
1725 |
47.54% |
20.60% |
8.06% |
4.29% |
| 7 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1703 |
35.10% |
15.99% |
5.80% |
2.90% |
| 8 |
Elina Svitolina |
1809 |
64.90% |
39.42% |
20.00% |
12.95% |
| 9 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1672 |
38.52% |
17.78% |
8.85% |
2.99% |
| 10 |
Maria Sharapova |
1754 |
61.48% |
35.47% |
21.66% |
9.65% |
| 11 |
Madison Keys |
1722 |
57.60% |
28.76% |
16.32% |
6.56% |
| 12 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1669 |
42.40% |
17.99% |
8.87% |
2.95% |
| 13 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1727 |
57.90% |
37.88% |
19.57% |
7.99% |
| 14 |
Naomi Osaka |
1671 |
42.10% |
24.43% |
10.70% |
3.60% |
| 15 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1553 |
36.51% |
10.85% |
3.08% |
0.64% |
| 16 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1649 |
63.49% |
26.85% |
10.93% |
3.37% |
