The 2nd week of Wimbledon starts tomorrow, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Dominic Thiem lost in round 1 to Sam Querrey.
- Reilly Opelka had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, and he made it to round 3 before losing to Milos Raonic. Jordan Thompson, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Nick Kyrgios in the 1st round.
- Denis Kudla had the easiest 1st round draw, and won his match as expected, before losing in round 2 to Novak Djokovic. Philipp Kohlschreiber had the toughest round 1 match and lost as expected to Djokovic.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Rafael Nadal is still the favourite for the title, with a 34.7% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 33.12%. The 3rd most likely winner is Roger Federer with 21.38%, and 4th is Kei Nishikori with 2.82%.
- Sam Querrey and Tennys Sandgren have the easiest draw to the title relative to their ranking, as they're the 8th and 14th most likely players to win the title, while they are the 10th and 16th highest ranked players in the tournament.
- Matteo Berrettini has the toughest overall draw, he is the 10th most likely winner, but he is the 8th best player remaining.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Sam Querrey who's more likely than expected to advance, as he's the 5th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while being the 10th highest ranked player still in the tournament.
- And Matteo Berrettini has the toughest 4th round match, as he's the 14th most likely quarter finalist, but he's the 8th best player here.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1980 |
94.03% |
78.57% |
64.77% |
33.12% |
| 2 |
Ugo Humbert |
1501 |
5.97% |
1.48% |
0.35% |
0.03% |
| 3 |
David Goffin |
1724 |
60.27% |
13.37% |
6.99% |
1.45% |
| 4 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1652 |
39.73% |
6.57% |
2.77% |
0.42% |
| 5 |
Guido Pella |
1628 |
35.35% |
13.87% |
2.51% |
0.34% |
| 6 |
Milos Raonic |
1733 |
64.65% |
34.81% |
9.51% |
2.05% |
| 7 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1742 |
64.32% |
36.30% |
10.25% |
2.30% |
| 8 |
Benoit Paire |
1640 |
35.68% |
15.03% |
2.85% |
0.41% |
| 9 |
Sam Querrey |
1648 |
69.87% |
10.13% |
2.06% |
0.47% |
| 10 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1501 |
30.13% |
2.28% |
0.24% |
0.03% |
| 11 |
Joao Sousa |
1545 |
6.45% |
2.70% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
| 12 |
Rafael Nadal |
2010 |
93.55% |
84.89% |
53.46% |
34.70% |
| 13 |
Kei Nishikori |
1789 |
81.71% |
25.22% |
7.49% |
2.82% |
| 14 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1529 |
18.29% |
1.86% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 15 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1697 |
16.15% |
7.02% |
1.50% |
0.41% |
| 16 |
Roger Federer |
1983 |
83.85% |
65.89% |
34.69% |
21.38% |
