The 2nd week of Wimbledon starts tomorrow, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
- Marie Bouzkova had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, but she lost in round 2 to Maria Sakkari. Zheng Saisai, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Ashleigh Barty in the 1st round.
- Taylor Townsend had the easiest 1st round draw, and won her match as expected, before losing in round 2 to Kiki Bertens. Aliaksandra Sasnovich had the toughest round 1 match and lost as expected to Simona Halep,
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Ashleigh Barty is still the favourite for the title, with a 22.49% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep 2nd at 20.25%. The 3rd most likely winner is Karolina Pliskova with 17.13%, and 4th is Serena Williams with 11.93%.
- Zhang Shuai and Dayana Yastremska have the easiest draw to the title relative to their ranking, as they're the 13th and 10th most likely player to win the title, while they are the 15th and 12th highest ranked players in the tournament.
- 5 players are tied at 1 place worse than expected for their odds for winning the title. These are Alison Riske, Carla Suarez Navarro, Barbora Strycova, Karolina Muchova and Karolina Pliskova.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Dayana Yastremska who's more likely than expected to advance, as she's the 6th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while being the 12th highest ranked player still in the tournament.
- And Johanna Konta has the toughest 4th round match, as she's the 12th most likely quarter finalist, but she's the 7th best player here.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R6 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1889 |
83.57% |
53.37% |
36.36% |
22.49% |
| 2 |
Alison Riske |
1607 |
16.43% |
4.53% |
1.40% |
0.36% |
| 3 |
Serena Williams |
1831 |
76.08% |
36.33% |
22.07% |
11.93% |
| 4 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1630 |
23.92% |
5.77% |
1.94% |
0.55% |
| 5 |
Barbora Strycova |
1631 |
42.99% |
12.19% |
2.90% |
0.82% |
| 6 |
Elise Mertens |
1680 |
57.01% |
19.60% |
5.68% |
1.92% |
| 7 |
Johanna Konta |
1752 |
40.36% |
25.48% |
9.63% |
4.16% |
| 8 |
Petra Kvitova |
1820 |
59.64% |
42.73% |
20.02% |
10.51% |
| 9 |
Elina Svitolina |
1756 |
54.52% |
23.84% |
11.69% |
4.79% |
| 10 |
Petra Martic |
1725 |
45.48% |
18.05% |
8.12% |
2.99% |
| 11 |
Karolina Muchova |
1579 |
17.70% |
4.99% |
1.39% |
0.29% |
| 12 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1846 |
82.30% |
53.12% |
32.17% |
17.13% |
| 13 |
Simona Halep |
1840 |
84.87% |
67.85% |
38.59% |
20.25% |
| 14 |
Cori Gauff |
1541 |
15.13% |
6.33% |
1.27% |
0.22% |
| 15 |
Zhang Shuai |
1561 |
40.94% |
9.07% |
1.99% |
0.38% |
| 16 |
Dayana Yastremska |
1625 |
59.06% |
16.75% |
4.78% |
1.20% |
