2015 AO Men's Singles Summary + ELO Rankings 02/02/2015

With the Australian Open finishing today, now's the best time to have a look back at how my predictions did. These predictions were solely based on an ELO rating system I have been calibrating for a few weeks based solely on Grand Slam matches from 2014 and the ATP tournaments held so far in 2015.

R1: 41/64 (64%)

R2: 21/32 (66%)

R3: 13/16 (81%)

R4: 7/8 (88%)

R5: 4/4 (100%)

R6: 2/2 (100%)

R7: 1/1 (100%)

Overall: 89/127 (70%)

For a rating system that isn't yet fully calibrated in my opinion, I'm very happy with these results. I hope to do better at Roland Garros as my system learns more, but knowing how difficult it can be to predict matches, I'm not expecting to break 75%.

Because the Grand Slam tournaments have more rounds (and an additional week) than most ATP tournaments, my Big Gainer of the (2) week(s) automatically goes to the winner, Novak Djokovic. His victory gained him 52 rating points and moves him ahead of Federer to claim the #1 position!

The Upset player of the (2) week(s) goes to Tommy Robredo, who lost 12 rating points following his 1st round loss, and fell 3 places to #17 on my rankings. Let's hope he does better at Paris.

Other strong performers relative to their rankings are Nick Kyrgios, Bernard Tomic, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Steve Johnson and Jarkko Nieminen

Now, the the full rankings. (± is for ranking, not rating. Some players who are new to the rankings will have artificially high ± scores as I add them to the bottom before sorting them in to their new position)

#	Name	ELO	±
1	Novak Djokovic	1706	1
2	Stan Wawrinka	1657	1
3	Roger Federer	1655	-2
4	Andy Murray	1650	0
5	Tomas Berdych	1638	1
6	Rafael Nadal	1626	1
7	Milos Raonic	1621	2
8	David Ferrer	1615	0
9	Marin Cillic	1613	-4
10	Kei Nishikori	1610	0
11	Grigor Dimitrov	1592	0
12	Kevin Anderson	1573	3
13	Jo-Wilfried Tsonga	1572	-1
14	Gael Monfils	1563	-1
15	Victor Troicki	1562	2
16	Nick Kyrgios	1554	11
17	Tommy Robredo	1552	-3
18	Roberto Bautista-Agut	1549	-2
19	Gilles Muller	1548	9
20	Feliciano Lopez	1547	6
21	Richard Gasquet	1545	0
22	Gilles Simon	1544	0
23	Leonardo Mayer	1541	-4
24	Adrian Mannarino	1539	-4
25	Jerzy Janowicz	1539	-1
26	John Isner	1538	-3
27	Jiri Vesely	1536	-9
28	Andreas Seppi	1536	10
29	Bernard Tomic	1529	16
30	Guillermo Garcia-Lopez	1528	17
31	Andrey Kuznetsov	1526	0
32	Jeremy Chardy	1523	-2
33	Fernando Verdasco	1523	8
34	Simone Bolelli	1521	0
35	Florian Mayer	1520	-2
36	Ivo Karlovic	1517	-1
37	Ernests Gulbis	1516	-12
38	Mikhail Kukushkin	1514	-9
39	Aljaz Bedene	1511	-3
40	Juan Martin Del Potro	1511	2
41	Marcel Granollers	1511	2
42	Donald Young	1511	4
43	Fabio Fognini	1510	-11
44	Martin Klizan	1510	-5
45	Philipp Kohlschreiber	1510	-5
46	Blaz Kavcic	1503	-9
47	Andreas Haider-Maurer	1503	7
48	Michael Berrer	1502	5
49	Axel Michon	1501	7
50	Matthias Bachinger	1500	2
51	Vincent Millot	1500	13
52	Nikoloz Basilashvili	1500	13
53	Thanasi Kokkinakis	1500	16
54	Jack Sock	1499	16
55	Steve Johnson	1499	93
56	Alexandr Dolgopolov	1498	-12
57	Michael Venus	1498	17
58	David Goffin	1497	15
59	Benoit Paire	1497	16
60	Ivan Dodig	1497	18
61	Sam Groth	1497	84
62	Marcos Baghdatis	1496	88
63	Lukasz Kubot	1495	14
64	Dominic Thiem	1494	-15
65	John Millman	1494	-15
66	Illya Marchenko	1494	-9
67	Tim Smyczek	1494	35
68	Marius Copil	1494	67
69	Dusan Lajovic	1493	-21
70	Yuki Bhambri	1493	-3
71	Malek Jaziri	1493	87
72	Vasek Pospisil	1493	91
73	Jarkko Nieminen	1493	101
74	Jimmy Wang	1492	-15
75	Damir Dzumhur	1492	10
76	Radek Stepanek	1492	10
77	Taro Daniel	1492	10
78	Thiemo de Bakker	1492	11
79	Teymuraz Gabashvili	1491	-28
80	Luke Saville	1491	-20
81	Tim Putz	1491	-20
82	Ruben Bemelmans	1491	-16
83	Hiroki Moriya	1491	-15
84	Alex Kuznetsov	1491	8
85	Ante Pavic	1491	8
86	Jared Donaldson	1491	8
87	Julian Reister	1491	8
88	Jurgen Zopp	1491	8
89	Konstantin Kravchuk	1491	8
90	Marcos Giron	1491	8
91	Peter Polansky	1491	8
92	Radu Albot	1491	8
93	Robby Ginepri	1491	8
94	Ricardas Berankis	1491	33
95	Sam Querrey	1490	-40
96	Jan Hernych	1490	-38
97	Joao Souza	1490	-34
98	Albano Olivetti	1490	5
99	Alex Bogomolov Jr	1490	5
100	Andrea Arnaboldi	1490	5
101	Daniel Cox	1490	5
102	Daniel Evans	1490	5
103	Daniel Smethurst	1490	5
104	David Guez	1490	5
105	Dmitry Tursunov	1490	5
106	Facundo Arguello	1490	5
107	Facundo Bagnis	1490	5
108	Gastao Elias	1490	6
109	Horacio Zeballos	1490	6
110	Jan Hajek	1490	6
111	Jesse Huta Galung	1490	6
112	Marco Chiudinelli	1490	9
113	Miloslav Mecir Jr	1490	11
114	Nikolay Davydenko	1490	11
115	Potito Starace	1490	11
116	Steve Darcis	1490	12
117	Wu Di	1490	12
118	Yoshihito Nishioka	1490	12
119	Yuichi Sugita	1490	12
120	Ramkumar Ramanathan	1490	13
121	Jabor Mohammed Ali Mutawa	1490	13
122	Luca Vanni	1490	14
123	N Vijay Sundar Prashanth	1490	14
124	Alexander Kudryavtsev	1489	-62
125	Stephane Robert	1489	-54
126	James McGee	1489	12
127	Niels Desein	1489	12
128	Noah Rubin	1489	12
129	Mohamed Safwat	1489	12
130	Jose Rubin Statham	1489	12
131	James Duckworth	1489	12
132	Elias Ymer	1488	-60
133	Diego Schwartzman	1488	-57
134	Yen-Hsun Lu	1487	-55
135	Dudi Sela	1487	46
136	Thomaz Bellucci	1485	-54
137	Lucas Pouille	1484	-47
138	Marsel Ilhan	1484	-16
139	Aleksandr Nedovyesov	1484	10
140	Peter Gojowczyk	1483	-59
141	Borna Coric	1483	-58
142	Blaz Rola	1483	-58
143	Tatsuma Ito	1483	-55
144	Edouard Roger-Vasselin	1483	13
145	Sergiy Stakhovsky	1483	30
146	Victor Estrella Burgos	1482	-66
147	Denis Istomin	1482	-56
148	Matthew Ebden	1482	3
149	Victor Hanescu	1482	4
150	Go Soeda	1482	16
151	Michael Llodra	1481	10
152	Pierre-Hugues Herbert	1481	10
153	Wayne Odesnik	1481	11
154	Filip Krajinovic	1480	-41
155	Kyle Edmund	1480	-36
156	Laurent Lokoli	1480	-36
157	Rhyne Williams	1480	11
158	Andreas Beck	1480	11
159	Daniel Brands	1480	11
160	Frank Dancevic	1480	11
161	Michal Przysiezny	1480	11
162	Tommy Haas	1480	11
163	Jordan Thompson	1479	-45
164	Maximo Gonzalez	1479	-41
165	Zhang Ze	1479	-33
166	Jurgen Melzer	1479	12
167	Joao Sousa	1479	30
168	Jan-Lennard Struff	1477	-24
169	Pablo Carreno Busta	1477	-23
170	Paul-Henri Mathieu	1477	-23
171	Dustin Brown	1475	-17
172	Mikhail Youzhny	1474	-13
173	Santiago Giraldo	1474	7
174	Pablo Cuevas	1473	-22
175	Nicolas Almagro	1473	-8
176	Ryan Harrison	1473	6
177	Denis Kudla	1472	-21
178	James Ward	1472	-18
179	Albert Ramos-Vinolas	1472	-14
180	Filippo Volandri	1472	3
181	Marinko Matosevic	1472	8
182	Kenny de Schepper	1471	-27
183	Albert Montanes	1471	1
184	Pere Riba	1471	1
185	Evgeny Donskoy	1470	1
186	Alejandro Falla	1469	-9
187	Benjamin Becker	1469	17
188	Alejandro Gonzalez	1468	2
189	Robin Haase	1467	-13
190	Lukas Rosol	1465	2
191	Paolo Lorenzi	1465	3
192	Lleyton Hewitt	1465	4
193	Pablo Andujar	1464	-14
194	Bradley Klahn	1462	5
195	Nicolas Mahut	1462	5
196	Michael Russell	1461	-9
197	Tobias Kamke	1461	-9
198	Somdev Devvarman	1461	3
199	Daniel Gimeno-Traver	1461	3
200	Lukas Lacko	1458	5
201	Federico Delbonis	1457	-10
202	Juan Monaco	1456	-7
203	Julien Bennetau	1455	-10
204	Carlos Berlocq	1454	-6
205	Andrey Golubev	1449	-2
206	Igor Sijsling	1435	0