Sunday, 1 February 2015

2015 AO Men's Singles Summary + ELO Rankings 02/02/2015

With the Australian Open finishing today, now's the best time to have a look back at how my predictions did. These predictions were solely based on an ELO rating system I have been calibrating for a few weeks based solely on Grand Slam matches from 2014 and the ATP tournaments held so far in 2015.

R1: 41/64 (64%)
R2: 21/32 (66%)
R3: 13/16 (81%)
R4: 7/8 (88%)
R5: 4/4 (100%)
R6: 2/2 (100%)
R7: 1/1 (100%)

Overall: 89/127 (70%)

For a rating system that isn't yet fully calibrated in my opinion, I'm very happy with these results. I hope to do better at Roland Garros as my system learns more, but knowing how difficult it can be to predict matches, I'm not expecting to break 75%.

Because the Grand Slam tournaments have more rounds (and an additional week) than most ATP tournaments, my Big Gainer of the (2) week(s) automatically goes to the winner, Novak Djokovic. His victory gained him 52 rating points and moves him ahead of Federer to claim the #1 position!

The Upset player of the (2) week(s) goes to Tommy Robredo, who lost 12 rating points following his 1st round loss, and fell 3 places to #17 on my rankings. Let's hope he does better at Paris.

Other strong performers relative to their rankings are Nick Kyrgios, Bernard Tomic, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Steve Johnson and Jarkko Nieminen

Now, the the full rankings. (± is for ranking, not rating. Some players who are new to the rankings will have artificially high ± scores as I add them to the bottom before sorting them in to their new position)


#NameELO±
1Novak Djokovic17061
2Stan Wawrinka16571
3Roger Federer1655-2
4Andy Murray16500
5Tomas Berdych16381
6Rafael Nadal16261
7Milos Raonic16212
8David Ferrer16150
9Marin Cillic1613-4
10Kei Nishikori16100
11Grigor Dimitrov15920
12Kevin Anderson15733
13Jo-Wilfried Tsonga1572-1
14Gael Monfils1563-1
15Victor Troicki15622
16Nick Kyrgios155411
17Tommy Robredo1552-3
18Roberto Bautista-Agut1549-2
19Gilles Muller15489
20Feliciano Lopez15476
21Richard Gasquet15450
22Gilles Simon15440
23Leonardo Mayer1541-4
24Adrian Mannarino1539-4
25Jerzy Janowicz1539-1
26John Isner1538-3
27Jiri Vesely1536-9
28Andreas Seppi153610
29Bernard Tomic152916
30Guillermo Garcia-Lopez152817
31Andrey Kuznetsov15260
32Jeremy Chardy1523-2
33Fernando Verdasco15238
34Simone Bolelli15210
35Florian Mayer1520-2
36Ivo Karlovic1517-1
37Ernests Gulbis1516-12
38Mikhail Kukushkin1514-9
39Aljaz Bedene1511-3
40Juan Martin Del Potro15112
41Marcel Granollers15112
42Donald Young15114
43Fabio Fognini1510-11
44Martin Klizan1510-5
45Philipp Kohlschreiber1510-5
46Blaz Kavcic1503-9
47Andreas Haider-Maurer15037
48Michael Berrer15025
49Axel Michon15017
50Matthias Bachinger15002
51Vincent Millot150013
52Nikoloz Basilashvili150013
53Thanasi Kokkinakis150016
54Jack Sock149916
55Steve Johnson149993
56Alexandr Dolgopolov1498-12
57Michael Venus149817
58David Goffin149715
59Benoit Paire149716
60Ivan Dodig149718
61Sam Groth149784
62Marcos Baghdatis149688
63Lukasz Kubot149514
64Dominic Thiem1494-15
65John Millman1494-15
66Illya Marchenko1494-9
67Tim Smyczek149435
68Marius Copil149467
69Dusan Lajovic1493-21
70Yuki Bhambri1493-3
71Malek Jaziri149387
72Vasek Pospisil149391
73Jarkko Nieminen1493101
74Jimmy Wang1492-15
75Damir Dzumhur149210
76Radek Stepanek149210
77Taro Daniel149210
78Thiemo de Bakker149211
79Teymuraz Gabashvili1491-28
80Luke Saville1491-20
81Tim Putz1491-20
82Ruben Bemelmans1491-16
83Hiroki Moriya1491-15
84Alex Kuznetsov14918
85Ante Pavic14918
86Jared Donaldson14918
87Julian Reister14918
88Jurgen Zopp14918
89Konstantin Kravchuk14918
90Marcos Giron14918
91Peter Polansky14918
92Radu Albot14918
93Robby Ginepri14918
94Ricardas Berankis149133
95Sam Querrey1490-40
96Jan Hernych1490-38
97Joao Souza1490-34
98Albano Olivetti14905
99Alex Bogomolov Jr14905
100Andrea Arnaboldi14905
101Daniel Cox14905
102Daniel Evans14905
103Daniel Smethurst14905
104David Guez14905
105Dmitry Tursunov14905
106Facundo Arguello14905
107Facundo Bagnis14905
108Gastao Elias14906
109Horacio Zeballos14906
110Jan Hajek14906
111Jesse Huta Galung14906
112Marco Chiudinelli14909
113Miloslav Mecir Jr149011
114Nikolay Davydenko149011
115Potito Starace149011
116Steve Darcis149012
117Wu Di149012
118Yoshihito Nishioka149012
119Yuichi Sugita149012
120Ramkumar Ramanathan149013
121Jabor Mohammed Ali Mutawa149013
122Luca Vanni149014
123N Vijay Sundar Prashanth149014
124Alexander Kudryavtsev1489-62
125Stephane Robert1489-54
126James McGee148912
127Niels Desein148912
128Noah Rubin148912
129Mohamed Safwat148912
130Jose Rubin Statham148912
131James Duckworth148912
132Elias Ymer1488-60
133Diego Schwartzman1488-57
134Yen-Hsun Lu1487-55
135Dudi Sela148746
136Thomaz Bellucci1485-54
137Lucas Pouille1484-47
138Marsel Ilhan1484-16
139Aleksandr Nedovyesov148410
140Peter Gojowczyk1483-59
141Borna Coric1483-58
142Blaz Rola1483-58
143Tatsuma Ito1483-55
144Edouard Roger-Vasselin148313
145Sergiy Stakhovsky148330
146Victor Estrella Burgos1482-66
147Denis Istomin1482-56
148Matthew Ebden14823
149Victor Hanescu14824
150Go Soeda148216
151Michael Llodra148110
152Pierre-Hugues Herbert148110
153Wayne Odesnik148111
154Filip Krajinovic1480-41
155Kyle Edmund1480-36
156Laurent Lokoli1480-36
157Rhyne Williams148011
158Andreas Beck148011
159Daniel Brands148011
160Frank Dancevic148011
161Michal Przysiezny148011
162Tommy Haas148011
163Jordan Thompson1479-45
164Maximo Gonzalez1479-41
165Zhang Ze1479-33
166Jurgen Melzer147912
167Joao Sousa147930
168Jan-Lennard Struff1477-24
169Pablo Carreno Busta1477-23
170Paul-Henri Mathieu1477-23
171Dustin Brown1475-17
172Mikhail Youzhny1474-13
173Santiago Giraldo14747
174Pablo Cuevas1473-22
175Nicolas Almagro1473-8
176Ryan Harrison14736
177Denis Kudla1472-21
178James Ward1472-18
179Albert Ramos-Vinolas1472-14
180Filippo Volandri14723
181Marinko Matosevic14728
182Kenny de Schepper1471-27
183Albert Montanes14711
184Pere Riba14711
185Evgeny Donskoy14701
186Alejandro Falla1469-9
187Benjamin Becker146917
188Alejandro Gonzalez14682
189Robin Haase1467-13
190Lukas Rosol14652
191Paolo Lorenzi14653
192Lleyton Hewitt14654
193Pablo Andujar1464-14
194Bradley Klahn14625
195Nicolas Mahut14625
196Michael Russell1461-9
197Tobias Kamke1461-9
198Somdev Devvarman14613
199Daniel Gimeno-Traver14613
200Lukas Lacko14585
201Federico Delbonis1457-10
202Juan Monaco1456-7
203Julien Bennetau1455-10
204Carlos Berlocq1454-6
205Andrey Golubev1449-2
206Igor Sijsling14350

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