2015 AO Women's Singles Summary + ELO Rankings 02/02/2015

With the Australian Open finishing today, now's the best time to have a look back at how my predictions did. These predictions were solely based on an ELO rating system I have been calibrating for a few weeks based solely on Grand Slam matches from 2014 and the WTA tournaments held so far in 2015.

R1: 38/64 (59%)

R2: 27/32 (84%)

R3: 11/16 (69%)

R4: 6/8 (75%)

R5: 2/4 (50%)

R6: 2/2 (50%)

R7: 0/1 (0%)

Overall: 86/127 (76.8%)

For a rating system that isn't yet fully calibrated in my opinion, I'm very happy with these results. I hope to do better at Roland Garros as my system learns more, but knowing how difficult it can be to predict matches, I'm not expecting to break 75%.

Because the Grand Slam tournaments have more rounds (and an additional week) than most WTA tournaments, my Big Gainer of the (2) week(s) automatically goes to the winner, Serena Williams. Her victory gained her 60 rating points and moves her ahead of Bouchard and Kvitova to a new ranking of #3.

The Upset player of the (2) week(s) goes to Angelique Kerber, who lost 13 rating points following her 1st round loss, and fell 2 places to #9 on my rankings. Let's hope she does better at Paris.

Other strong performers relative to their rankings are Dominika Cibulkova, Madison Keys, Julia Gorges, Irina-Camelia Begu and Yanina Wickmayer.

Now, the the full rankings. (± is for ranking, not rating. Some players who are new to the rankings will have artificially high ± scores as I add them to the bottom before sorting them in to their new position)

#	Name	ELO	±
1	Maria Sharapova	1673	0
2	Simona Halep	1653	0
3	Serena Williams	1653	2
4	Eugenie Bouchard	1638	-1
5	Ekaterina Makarova	1622	1
6	Petra Kvitova	1620	-2
7	Venus Williams	1585	5
8	Caroline Wozniacki	1576	0
9	Angelique Kerber	1575	-2
10	Agnieszka Radwanska	1572	5
11	Victoria Azarenka	1564	6
12	Dominika Cibulkova	1564	10
13	Li Na	1563	-3
14	Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova	1563	0
15	Lucie Safarova	1556	-6
16	Karolina Pliskova	1555	0
17	Peng Shuai	1555	3
18	Garbine Muguruza	1555	3
19	Zarina Diyas	1553	-1
20	Carla Suarez Navarro	1551	-9
21	Ana Ivanovic	1548	-8
22	Madison Keys	1548	35
23	Madison Brengle	1546	7
24	Timea Bacsinszky	1543	-1
25	Varvara Lepchenko	1540	2
26	Alize Cornet	1537	2
27	Casey Dellacqua	1532	-2
28	Flavia Pennetta	1530	-9
29	Sara Errani	1525	9
30	Heather Watson	1524	-6
31	Aleksandra Krunic	1521	-5
32	Coco Vandeweghe	1521	10
33	Jelena Jankovic	1520	-4
34	Tereza Smitkova	1518	3
35	Elina Svitolina	1518	13
36	Kurumi Nara	1517	-5
37	Yaroslava Shvedova	1517	12
38	Julia Gorges	1517	47
39	Daniela Hantuchova	1514	2
40	Camila Giorgi	1514	32
41	Belinda Bencic	1513	-9
42	Andrea Petkovic	1513	-9
43	Sloane Stephens	1512	-8
44	Vera Zvonareva	1512	1
45	Lauren Davis	1512	1
46	Tsvetana Pironkova	1512	1
47	Lucie Hradecka	1512	17
48	Sabine Lisicki	1511	-14
49	Samantha Stosur	1511	-6
50	Alison Riske	1510	-14
51	Kaia Kanepi	1507	-12
52	Irina-Camelia Begu	1507	98
53	Yanina Wickmayer	1506	90
54	Zheng Saisai	1505	-14
55	Alexandra Panova	1504	26
56	CiCi Bellis	1503	-4
57	Michelle Larcher de Brito	1503	-4
58	Natalia Vikhlyantseva	1502	-4
59	Chang Kai-Chen	1502	10
60	Oceane Dodin	1502	10
61	Jarmila Gajdosova	1502	22
62	Nicole Gibbs	1501	-7
63	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	1501	-7
64	Irina Falconi	1501	-1
65	Carina Witthoft	1501	48
66	Elena Vesnina	1500	-22
67	Anastasia Rodionova	1500	-8
68	Ayumi Morita	1500	-8
69	Claire Feuerstein	1500	-8
70	Galina Voskoboeva	1500	-8
71	Naomi Broady	1500	-6
72	Vesna Dolonc	1500	-6
73	Victoria Duval	1500	-6
74	Cagla Buyukakcay	1500	-3
75	Kateryna Kozlova	1500	-2
76	Denisa Allertova	1500	1
77	Mona Barthel	1499	7
78	Johanna Larsson	1497	8
79	Daria Gavrilova	1495	-29
80	Kiki Bertens	1495	17
81	Alla Kudryavtseva	1494	-30
82	Bethanie Mattek-Sands	1494	67
83	Danielle Collins	1493	7
84	Petra Cetkovska	1493	7
85	An-Sophie Mestach	1492	-10
86	Samantha Murray	1492	6
87	Ajla Tomljanovic	1492	9
88	Katerina Siniakova	1492	18
89	Yvonne Meusburger	1491	-21
90	Vitalia Diatchenko	1491	-16
91	Tatjana Maria	1491	-11
92	Evgeniya Rodina	1491	-10
93	Alize Lim	1491	5
94	Andreea Mitu	1491	5
95	Anett Kontaveit	1491	5
96	Anna Schmiedlova	1491	5
97	Francoise Abanda	1491	5
98	Tamira Paszek	1491	6
99	Zhu Lin	1491	8
100	Anabel Medina Garrigues	1490	11
101	Andrea Hlavackova	1490	11
102	Danka Kovinic	1490	12
103	Estrella Cabeza Candela	1490	12
104	Fiona Ferro	1490	12
105	Iveta Melzer	1490	12
106	Laura Robson	1490	12
107	Luksika Kumkhum	1490	12
108	Mandy Minella	1490	12
109	Mariana Duque	1490	12
110	Mathilde Johansson	1490	12
111	Sachia Vickery	1490	12
112	Sofia Shapatava	1490	12
113	Tadeja Majeric	1490	12
114	Tang Haochen	1490	12
115	Tara Moore	1490	12
116	Yuliya Beygelzimer	1490	13
117	Caroline Garcia	1490	45
118	Ana Konjuh	1489	-60
119	Arina Rodionova	1489	-43
120	Stephanie Foretz	1489	-42
121	Renata Voracova	1489	-42
122	Roberta Vinci	1488	14
123	Polona Hercog	1485	12
124	Sorana Cirstea	1484	-37
125	Bojana Jovanovski	1484	-37
126	Taylor Townsend	1484	-32
127	Richel Hogenkamp	1484	3
128	Maria Kirilenko	1484	9
129	Alexandra Dulgheru	1483	-40
130	Marina Erakovic	1483	-37
131	Urszula Radwanska	1483	-36
132	Ksenia Pervak	1483	7
133	Ons Jabeur	1482	-30
134	Lourdes Domingues Lino	1482	7
135	Paula Kania	1482	7
136	Zheng Jie	1481	-31
137	Kirsten Flipkens	1481	-29
138	Alisa Kleybanova	1481	6
139	Amandine Hesse	1481	6
140	Paula Ormaechea	1481	6
141	Lara Arruabarrena	1481	10
142	Wang Qiang	1480	-32
143	Yulia Putintseva	1480	-15
144	Mirjana Lucic-Baroni	1480	-12
145	Karin Knapp	1480	-11
146	Chan Yung-jan	1480	6
147	Dinah Pfizenmaier	1480	6
148	Hseih Su-wei	1480	6
149	Jovana Jaksic	1480	6
150	Kristyna Pliskova	1480	6
151	Maryna Zanevska	1480	6
152	Nadiia Kichenok	1480	6
153	Pauline Parmentier	1479	-44
154	Olivia Rogowska	1479	-23
155	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	1479	-22
156	Johanna Konta	1479	5
157	Silvia Soler Espinosa	1476	6
158	Grace Min	1474	-20
159	Julia Glushko	1473	7
160	Aleksandra Wozniak	1473	7
161	Misaki Doi	1473	8
162	Sharon Fichman	1473	8
163	Vania King	1473	8
164	Shelby Rogers	1472	-24
165	Ashleigh Barty	1472	8
166	Shahar Pe'er	1472	9
167	Teliana Pereira	1472	9
168	Stefanie Vogele	1472	9
169	Maria Teresa Torro Flor	1471	-9
170	Alexandra Cadantu	1471	8
171	Virgine Razzano	1471	9
172	Svetlana Kuznetsova	1470	-25
173	Monica Niculescu	1470	-14
174	Storm Sanders	1469	-26
175	Kristina Mladenovic	1468	7
176	Timea Babos	1467	-12
177	Alison Van Uytvanck	1466	-9
178	Anna-Lena Friedsam	1466	-6
179	Petra Martic	1466	0
180	Monica Puig	1466	5
181	Olga Govortsova	1465	2
182	Christina McHale	1464	8
183	Anna Tatishvili	1464	8
184	Magdalena Rybarikova	1464	9
185	Duan Yingying	1463	-20
186	Romina Oprandi	1463	-12
187	Katarzyna Piter	1463	1
188	Patricia Mayr-Achleitner	1462	4
189	Lesia Tsurenko	1458	-8
190	Jana Cepelova	1457	4
191	Annika Beck	1455	-7
192	Klara Koukalova	1455	4
193	Chanelle Scheepers	1454	-7
194	Donna Vekic	1454	-7
195	Kimiko Date-Krumm	1453	-6
196	Zhang Shuai	1446	-1
197	Francesca Schiavone	1445	0