Monday, 2 February 2015

2015 AO Women's Singles Summary + ELO Rankings 02/02/2015

With the Australian Open finishing today, now's the best time to have a look back at how my predictions did. These predictions were solely based on an ELO rating system I have been calibrating for a few weeks based solely on Grand Slam matches from 2014 and the WTA tournaments held so far in 2015.

R1: 38/64 (59%)
R2: 27/32 (84%)
R3: 11/16 (69%)
R4: 6/8 (75%)
R5: 2/4 (50%)
R6: 2/2 (50%)
R7: 0/1 (0%)

Overall: 86/127 (76.8%)

For a rating system that isn't yet fully calibrated in my opinion, I'm very happy with these results. I hope to do better at Roland Garros as my system learns more, but knowing how difficult it can be to predict matches, I'm not expecting to break 75%.

Because the Grand Slam tournaments have more rounds (and an additional week) than most WTA tournaments, my Big Gainer of the (2) week(s) automatically goes to the winner, Serena Williams. Her victory gained her 60 rating points and moves her ahead of Bouchard and Kvitova to a new ranking of #3.

The Upset player of the (2) week(s) goes to Angelique Kerber, who lost 13 rating points following her 1st round loss, and fell 2 places to #9 on my rankings. Let's hope she does better at Paris.

Other strong performers relative to their rankings are Dominika Cibulkova, Madison Keys, Julia Gorges, Irina-Camelia Begu and Yanina Wickmayer.

Now, the the full rankings. (± is for ranking, not rating. Some players who are new to the rankings will have artificially high ± scores as I add them to the bottom before sorting them in to their new position)


#NameELO±
1Maria Sharapova16730
2Simona Halep16530
3Serena Williams16532
4Eugenie Bouchard1638-1
5Ekaterina Makarova16221
6Petra Kvitova1620-2
7Venus Williams15855
8Caroline Wozniacki15760
9Angelique Kerber1575-2
10Agnieszka Radwanska15725
11Victoria Azarenka15646
12Dominika Cibulkova156410
13Li Na1563-3
14Barbora Zahlavova-Strycova15630
15Lucie Safarova1556-6
16Karolina Pliskova15550
17Peng Shuai15553
18Garbine Muguruza15553
19Zarina Diyas1553-1
20Carla Suarez Navarro1551-9
21Ana Ivanovic1548-8
22Madison Keys154835
23Madison Brengle15467
24Timea Bacsinszky1543-1
25Varvara Lepchenko15402
26Alize Cornet15372
27Casey Dellacqua1532-2
28Flavia Pennetta1530-9
29Sara Errani15259
30Heather Watson1524-6
31Aleksandra Krunic1521-5
32Coco Vandeweghe152110
33Jelena Jankovic1520-4
34Tereza Smitkova15183
35Elina Svitolina151813
36Kurumi Nara1517-5
37Yaroslava Shvedova151712
38Julia Gorges151747
39Daniela Hantuchova15142
40Camila Giorgi151432
41Belinda Bencic1513-9
42Andrea Petkovic1513-9
43Sloane Stephens1512-8
44Vera Zvonareva15121
45Lauren Davis15121
46Tsvetana Pironkova15121
47Lucie Hradecka151217
48Sabine Lisicki1511-14
49Samantha Stosur1511-6
50Alison Riske1510-14
51Kaia Kanepi1507-12
52Irina-Camelia Begu150798
53Yanina Wickmayer150690
54Zheng Saisai1505-14
55Alexandra Panova150426
56CiCi Bellis1503-4
57Michelle Larcher de Brito1503-4
58Natalia Vikhlyantseva1502-4
59Chang Kai-Chen150210
60Oceane Dodin150210
61Jarmila Gajdosova150222
62Nicole Gibbs1501-7
63Aliaksandra Sasnovich1501-7
64Irina Falconi1501-1
65Carina Witthoft150148
66Elena Vesnina1500-22
67Anastasia Rodionova1500-8
68Ayumi Morita1500-8
69Claire Feuerstein1500-8
70Galina Voskoboeva1500-8
71Naomi Broady1500-6
72Vesna Dolonc1500-6
73Victoria Duval1500-6
74Cagla Buyukakcay1500-3
75Kateryna Kozlova1500-2
76Denisa Allertova15001
77Mona Barthel14997
78Johanna Larsson14978
79Daria Gavrilova1495-29
80Kiki Bertens149517
81Alla Kudryavtseva1494-30
82Bethanie Mattek-Sands149467
83Danielle Collins14937
84Petra Cetkovska14937
85An-Sophie Mestach1492-10
86Samantha Murray14926
87Ajla Tomljanovic14929
88Katerina Siniakova149218
89Yvonne Meusburger1491-21
90Vitalia Diatchenko1491-16
91Tatjana Maria1491-11
92Evgeniya Rodina1491-10
93Alize Lim14915
94Andreea Mitu14915
95Anett Kontaveit14915
96Anna Schmiedlova14915
97Francoise Abanda14915
98Tamira Paszek14916
99Zhu Lin14918
100Anabel Medina Garrigues149011
101Andrea Hlavackova149011
102Danka Kovinic149012
103Estrella Cabeza Candela149012
104Fiona Ferro149012
105Iveta Melzer149012
106Laura Robson149012
107Luksika Kumkhum149012
108Mandy Minella149012
109Mariana Duque149012
110Mathilde Johansson149012
111Sachia Vickery149012
112Sofia Shapatava149012
113Tadeja Majeric149012
114Tang Haochen149012
115Tara Moore149012
116Yuliya Beygelzimer149013
117Caroline Garcia149045
118Ana Konjuh1489-60
119Arina Rodionova1489-43
120Stephanie Foretz1489-42
121Renata Voracova1489-42
122Roberta Vinci148814
123Polona Hercog148512
124Sorana Cirstea1484-37
125Bojana Jovanovski1484-37
126Taylor Townsend1484-32
127Richel Hogenkamp14843
128Maria Kirilenko14849
129Alexandra Dulgheru1483-40
130Marina Erakovic1483-37
131Urszula Radwanska1483-36
132Ksenia Pervak14837
133Ons Jabeur1482-30
134Lourdes Domingues Lino14827
135Paula Kania14827
136Zheng Jie1481-31
137Kirsten Flipkens1481-29
138Alisa Kleybanova14816
139Amandine Hesse14816
140Paula Ormaechea14816
141Lara Arruabarrena148110
142Wang Qiang1480-32
143Yulia Putintseva1480-15
144Mirjana Lucic-Baroni1480-12
145Karin Knapp1480-11
146Chan Yung-jan14806
147Dinah Pfizenmaier14806
148Hseih Su-wei14806
149Jovana Jaksic14806
150Kristyna Pliskova14806
151Maryna Zanevska14806
152Nadiia Kichenok14806
153Pauline Parmentier1479-44
154Olivia Rogowska1479-23
155Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova1479-22
156Johanna Konta14795
157Silvia Soler Espinosa14766
158Grace Min1474-20
159Julia Glushko14737
160Aleksandra Wozniak14737
161Misaki Doi14738
162Sharon Fichman14738
163Vania King14738
164Shelby Rogers1472-24
165Ashleigh Barty14728
166Shahar Pe'er14729
167Teliana Pereira14729
168Stefanie Vogele14729
169Maria Teresa Torro Flor1471-9
170Alexandra Cadantu14718
171Virgine Razzano14719
172Svetlana Kuznetsova1470-25
173Monica Niculescu1470-14
174Storm Sanders1469-26
175Kristina Mladenovic14687
176Timea Babos1467-12
177Alison Van Uytvanck1466-9
178Anna-Lena Friedsam1466-6
179Petra Martic14660
180Monica Puig14665
181Olga Govortsova14652
182Christina McHale14648
183Anna Tatishvili14648
184Magdalena Rybarikova14649
185Duan Yingying1463-20
186Romina Oprandi1463-12
187Katarzyna Piter14631
188Patricia Mayr-Achleitner14624
189Lesia Tsurenko1458-8
190Jana Cepelova14574
191Annika Beck1455-7
192Klara Koukalova14554
193Chanelle Scheepers1454-7
194Donna Vekic1454-7
195Kimiko Date-Krumm1453-6
196Zhang Shuai1446-1
197Francesca Schiavone14450

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