The 2nd week of the French Open has begin, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 of them are still in!
- Gael Monfils had the easiest overall draw, but lost in round 1 to Alexander Bublik. Andrey Rublev now has the easiest overall draw relative to his ranking. Stan Wawrinka had the toughest overall draw and lost in round 3 to Hugo Gaston. Alexander Zverev now has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
- Quentin Halys had the easiest 1st round draw, but he ended up losing his round 1 match to Marcos Giron. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Egor Gerasimov lost his first round match to Rafael Nadal as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Novak Djokovic is the favourite for the title, with a 37.78% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal 2nd at 32.25%. The 3rd most likely winner is Dominic Thiem with 13.91%, and 4th is Stefanos Tsitsipas with 4.97%.
- As for the next match, it's Lorenzo Sonego who has the easiest next match, as he's 13.26 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect. Karen Khachanov has the toughest next match, as he's 14.8 percentage points less likely to win than his ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2025 | 88.34% | 77.10% | 61.56% | 37.78% |
| 2 | Karen Khachanov | 1673 | 11.66% | 5.75% | 2.04% | 0.39% |
| 3 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1724 | 75.74% | 15.15% | 6.42% | 1.54% |
| 4 | Daniel Altmaier | 1527 | 24.26% | 2.00% | 0.39% | 0.04% |
| 5 | Marton Fucsovics | 1615 | 26.46% | 7.46% | 1.16% | 0.17% |
| 6 | Andrey Rublev | 1792 | 73.54% | 37.78% | 11.53% | 3.60% |
| 7 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1686 | 31.09% | 13.01% | 2.71% | 0.55% |
| 8 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1825 | 68.91% | 41.75% | 14.19% | 4.97% |
| 9 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1515 | 23.08% | 3.15% | 0.28% | 0.03% |
| 10 | Diego Schwartzman | 1724 | 76.92% | 24.10% | 5.52% | 1.43% |
| 11 | Hugo Gaston | 1518 | 9.83% | 2.90% | 0.26% | 0.03% |
| 12 | Dominic Thiem | 1903 | 90.17% | 69.85% | 30.01% | 13.91% |
| 13 | Alexander Zverev | 1802 | 79.01% | 21.00% | 9.42% | 3.22% |
| 14 | Jannik Sinner | 1572 | 20.99% | 2.14% | 0.42% | 0.06% |
| 15 | Sebastian Korda | 1511 | 5.37% | 1.13% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 16 | Rafael Nadal | 2009 | 94.63% | 75.73% | 53.91% | 32.25% |
