The 2nd week of the French Open has begin, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 2 of them are still in. Karolina Pliskova was knocked out of the tournament by Jelena Ostapenko in the 2nd round, and Serena Williams withdrew in the same round.
- Petra Kvitova had the easiest overall draw, and is still in the tournament. Laura Siegemund now has the easiest overall draw relative to her ranking. Victoria Azarenka had the toughest overall draw and lost in round 2 to Anna Kerolina Schmiedlova. Iga Swiatek now has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
- Ana Bogdan had the easiest 1st round draw, and won her match against Timea Babos as expected before going out in round 2. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Jessica Pegula lost her first round match to Aryna Sabalenka as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Simona Halep is the favourite for the title, with a 29.8% chance of winning the whole thing, with Elina Svitolina 2nd at 17.31%. The 3rd most likely winner is Petra Kvitova with 16.44%, and 4th is Sofia Kenin with 12.89%.
- As for the next match, it's Barbora Krejcikova who has the easiest next match, as she's 34 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect. Caroline Garcia has the toughest next match, as she's 28.8 percentage points less likely to win than her ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simona Halep | 1878 | 82.81% | 59.08% | 42.13% | 29.80% |
| 2 | Iga Swiatek | 1605 | 17.19% | 6.24% | 2.33% | 0.82% |
| 3 | Kiki Bertens | 1753 | 82.09% | 32.21% | 18.13% | 9.94% |
| 4 | Martina Trevisan | 1489 | 17.91% | 2.47% | 0.61% | 0.14% |
| 5 | Elina Svitolina | 1792 | 74.28% | 61.31% | 28.84% | 17.31% |
| 6 | Caroline Garcia | 1608 | 25.72% | 16.01% | 3.97% | 1.40% |
| 7 | Nadia Podoroska | 1479 | 40.28% | 7.59% | 1.07% | 0.23% |
| 8 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1548 | 59.72% | 15.09% | 2.91% | 0.82% |
| 9 | Ons Jabeur | 1662 | 54.52% | 22.76% | 10.35% | 3.34% |
| 10 | Danielle Collins | 1631 | 45.48% | 17.11% | 7.08% | 2.03% |
| 11 | Fiona Ferro | 1607 | 28.39% | 12.51% | 4.79% | 1.25% |
| 12 | Sofia Kenin | 1767 | 71.61% | 47.62% | 28.26% | 12.89% |
| 13 | Petra Kvitova | 1780 | 74.32% | 56.93% | 34.71% | 16.44% |
| 14 | Zhang Shuai | 1596 | 25.68% | 13.68% | 4.91% | 1.23% |
| 15 | Laura Siegemund | 1601 | 60.15% | 19.58% | 7.16% | 1.83% |
| 16 | Paula Badosa | 1530 | 39.85% | 9.81% | 2.74% | 0.52% |
