The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Men's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 22.56% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 17.79%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 17.78% and Andy Murray 4th with 16.25%
- Jared Donaldson has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 60th most likely winner, while he is only the 72nd highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Martin Klizan has the toughest draw. He is the 82nd most likely winner, but he is the 63rd highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Alexandr Dolgopolov, as he's the 125th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 44th of the competitors.
- Facundo Bagnis got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 55th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 124th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Andy Murray |
1919 |
91.28% |
84.66% |
74.17% |
60.28% |
45.43% |
28.77% |
16.24% |
| 2 |
Alexander Bublik |
1511 |
8.72% |
4.79% |
2.00% |
0.64% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Joao Sousa |
1482 |
51.73% |
5.60% |
2.12% |
0.61% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Dustin Brown |
1470 |
48.27% |
4.95% |
1.80% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 5 |
Jiri Vesely |
1575 |
66.61% |
33.10% |
6.56% |
2.63% |
0.86% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 6 |
Illya Marchenko |
1455 |
33.39% |
11.31% |
1.41% |
0.37% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Dmitry Tursunov |
1443 |
26.19% |
9.78% |
1.16% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Fabio Fognini |
1623 |
73.81% |
45.81% |
10.79% |
5.00% |
1.92% |
0.53% |
0.11% |
| 9 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1728 |
79.55% |
62.25% |
41.89% |
15.50% |
8.09% |
3.18% |
1.03% |
| 10 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1492 |
20.45% |
9.95% |
3.63% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Rogerio Dutra Silva |
1431 |
34.94% |
7.21% |
2.11% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 12 |
Benoit Paire |
1539 |
65.06% |
20.59% |
8.76% |
1.71% |
0.49% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1491 |
48.56% |
15.48% |
4.76% |
0.77% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
Jerzy Janowicz |
1501 |
51.44% |
17.02% |
5.42% |
0.91% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Malek Jaziri |
1491 |
25.64% |
12.63% |
3.88% |
0.63% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Lucas Pouille |
1676 |
74.36% |
54.87% |
29.54% |
9.32% |
4.22% |
1.40% |
0.37% |
| 17 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
1765 |
82.22% |
68.61% |
53.31% |
31.80% |
13.80% |
6.06% |
2.22% |
| 18 |
Cameron Norrie |
1499 |
17.78% |
9.29% |
4.09% |
1.11% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Simone Bolelli |
1502 |
56.16% |
13.36% |
5.94% |
1.62% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Yen-Hsun Lu |
1459 |
43.84% |
8.74% |
3.37% |
0.78% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
Carlos Berlocq |
1487 |
46.55% |
18.63% |
5.05% |
1.31% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1511 |
53.45% |
23.11% |
6.84% |
1.94% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1444 |
28.36% |
11.92% |
2.74% |
0.60% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Sam Querrey |
1605 |
71.64% |
46.33% |
18.66% |
7.31% |
1.89% |
0.49% |
0.10% |
| 25 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1624 |
49.28% |
32.52% |
12.92% |
5.86% |
1.62% |
0.45% |
0.10% |
| 26 |
Kevin Anderson |
1629 |
50.72% |
33.79% |
13.63% |
6.27% |
1.77% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
| 27 |
Norbert Gombos |
1490 |
45.12% |
14.13% |
3.58% |
1.05% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Andreas Seppi |
1524 |
54.88% |
19.57% |
5.61% |
1.86% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Tommy Haas |
1454 |
47.84% |
8.28% |
2.66% |
0.68% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Ruben Bemelmans |
1469 |
52.16% |
9.65% |
3.28% |
0.89% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1559 |
20.83% |
13.25% |
6.10% |
2.27% |
0.49% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1791 |
79.17% |
68.82% |
52.22% |
34.64% |
16.14% |
7.62% |
3.04% |
| 33 |
Rafael Nadal |
1928 |
91.42% |
81.39% |
72.75% |
61.96% |
47.69% |
30.86% |
17.79% |
| 34 |
John Millman |
1517 |
8.58% |
3.85% |
1.74% |
0.66% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Donald Young |
1599 |
71.53% |
12.33% |
6.99% |
3.42% |
1.22% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
| 36 |
Denis Istomin |
1439 |
28.47% |
2.42% |
0.84% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1451 |
42.01% |
13.29% |
1.52% |
0.46% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Andrew Whittington |
1507 |
57.99% |
22.57% |
3.28% |
1.21% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 39 |
Andrey Kuznetsov |
1552 |
41.73% |
24.90% |
4.34% |
1.85% |
0.56% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 40 |
Karen Khachanov |
1610 |
58.27% |
39.24% |
8.55% |
4.31% |
1.59% |
0.41% |
0.08% |
| 41 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1601 |
59.25% |
39.90% |
19.10% |
4.70% |
1.68% |
0.42% |
0.08% |
| 42 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1536 |
40.75% |
23.92% |
9.47% |
1.84% |
0.52% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1494 |
56.30% |
21.79% |
7.53% |
1.24% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Renzo Olivo |
1450 |
43.70% |
14.39% |
4.26% |
0.58% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Lukas Rosol |
1459 |
47.99% |
12.42% |
4.81% |
0.68% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Henri Laaksonen |
1473 |
52.01% |
14.22% |
5.78% |
0.87% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1458 |
19.80% |
9.66% |
3.73% |
0.53% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Gilles Muller |
1701 |
80.20% |
63.70% |
45.32% |
15.45% |
7.56% |
2.72% |
0.80% |
| 49 |
Kei Nishikori |
1776 |
89.32% |
77.10% |
53.72% |
35.95% |
16.20% |
7.33% |
2.79% |
| 50 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1407 |
10.68% |
4.59% |
1.14% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Julien Bennetau |
1457 |
50.29% |
9.24% |
2.78% |
0.75% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Sergiy Stakhovsky |
1455 |
49.71% |
9.06% |
2.70% |
0.72% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 53 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1485 |
51.73% |
14.75% |
3.67% |
1.10% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Marius Copil |
1473 |
48.27% |
13.14% |
3.13% |
0.90% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Andreas Haider-Maurer |
1464 |
20.26% |
9.69% |
2.23% |
0.62% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1702 |
79.74% |
62.42% |
30.63% |
17.65% |
6.46% |
2.33% |
0.69% |
| 57 |
Steve Johnson |
1623 |
65.45% |
50.84% |
22.49% |
8.73% |
2.48% |
0.68% |
0.15% |
| 58 |
Nicolas Kicker |
1512 |
34.55% |
22.37% |
6.81% |
1.79% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 59 |
Facundo Bagnis |
1413 |
52.01% |
14.32% |
2.92% |
0.51% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Radu Albot |
1399 |
47.99% |
12.47% |
2.39% |
0.39% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Victor Troicki |
1561 |
60.90% |
18.65% |
9.82% |
3.09% |
0.71% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 62 |
Florian Mayer |
1484 |
39.10% |
8.72% |
3.69% |
0.87% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1613 |
31.25% |
19.21% |
11.44% |
4.30% |
1.18% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
| 64 |
Marin Cilic |
1750 |
68.75% |
53.42% |
40.43% |
22.39% |
9.41% |
3.95% |
1.38% |
| 65 |
Milos Raonic |
1756 |
82.13% |
67.87% |
51.90% |
28.30% |
12.01% |
4.80% |
1.82% |
| 66 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1491 |
17.87% |
9.10% |
3.89% |
0.89% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Mikhail Youzhny |
1462 |
44.27% |
9.28% |
3.61% |
0.73% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Nicolas Mahut |
1502 |
55.73% |
13.75% |
6.08% |
1.45% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 69 |
Andrey Rublev |
1466 |
45.12% |
16.31% |
4.21% |
0.87% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1500 |
54.88% |
22.26% |
6.52% |
1.54% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Jordan Thompson |
1452 |
28.24% |
12.80% |
3.13% |
0.61% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 72 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1614 |
71.76% |
48.63% |
20.64% |
7.45% |
2.04% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
| 73 |
Jack Sock |
1726 |
79.46% |
62.09% |
31.63% |
18.74% |
7.31% |
2.67% |
0.92% |
| 74 |
Christian Garin |
1491 |
20.54% |
9.87% |
2.40% |
0.72% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Thomaz Bellucci |
1509 |
51.29% |
14.62% |
3.80% |
1.22% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Sebastian Ofner |
1500 |
48.71% |
13.41% |
3.37% |
1.05% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Robin Haase |
1522 |
65.45% |
15.06% |
5.23% |
1.76% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 78 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1411 |
34.55% |
5.02% |
1.15% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1423 |
11.01% |
4.57% |
1.10% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Alexander Zverev |
1786 |
88.99% |
75.35% |
51.31% |
34.17% |
15.69% |
6.85% |
2.86% |
| 81 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1691 |
67.25% |
48.54% |
32.76% |
10.85% |
4.95% |
1.61% |
0.49% |
| 82 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1566 |
32.75% |
18.47% |
9.48% |
2.09% |
0.63% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 83 |
James Ward |
1405 |
28.59% |
5.76% |
1.76% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Marcos Baghdatis |
1564 |
71.41% |
27.23% |
13.90% |
3.05% |
0.91% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 85 |
Dudi Sela |
1447 |
48.85% |
14.96% |
4.21% |
0.59% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Marcel Granollers |
1455 |
51.15% |
16.15% |
4.70% |
0.68% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 87 |
Taylor Fritz |
1485 |
29.18% |
16.01% |
5.22% |
0.86% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
John Isner |
1639 |
70.82% |
52.89% |
27.97% |
7.89% |
3.06% |
0.83% |
0.21% |
| 89 |
Mischa Zverev |
1570 |
54.16% |
35.79% |
6.93% |
3.08% |
0.94% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 90 |
Bernard Tomic |
1541 |
45.84% |
28.53% |
4.96% |
2.01% |
0.55% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 91 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1458 |
51.15% |
18.51% |
2.31% |
0.70% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 92 |
Taro Daniel |
1450 |
48.85% |
17.16% |
2.07% |
0.61% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1470 |
46.12% |
4.63% |
1.99% |
0.63% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1497 |
53.88% |
6.12% |
2.86% |
1.00% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 95 |
Alexandr Dolgopolov |
1549 |
10.25% |
6.06% |
3.27% |
1.36% |
0.38% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 96 |
Roger Federer |
1926 |
89.75% |
83.18% |
75.61% |
64.39% |
48.48% |
29.55% |
17.78% |
| 97 |
Dominic Thiem |
1765 |
81.54% |
63.88% |
52.22% |
33.87% |
13.10% |
5.63% |
2.20% |
| 98 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1507 |
18.46% |
8.44% |
4.26% |
1.33% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Gilles Simon |
1575 |
65.06% |
20.48% |
12.31% |
4.87% |
0.97% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
| 100 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1467 |
34.94% |
7.20% |
3.22% |
0.86% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Janko Tipsarevic |
1467 |
45.69% |
19.47% |
4.72% |
1.26% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Jared Donaldson |
1497 |
54.31% |
25.45% |
6.93% |
2.08% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Horacio Zeballos |
1533 |
54.45% |
31.09% |
9.67% |
3.32% |
0.56% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 104 |
Paolo Lorenzi |
1502 |
45.55% |
24.00% |
6.66% |
2.04% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 105 |
Richard Gasquet |
1700 |
66.23% |
52.00% |
30.14% |
17.00% |
5.36% |
1.88% |
0.59% |
| 106 |
David Ferrer |
1583 |
33.77% |
22.01% |
9.32% |
3.88% |
0.80% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 107 |
Steve Darcis |
1501 |
59.94% |
17.35% |
5.56% |
1.77% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 108 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1431 |
40.06% |
8.63% |
2.10% |
0.52% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Borna Coric |
1561 |
56.02% |
19.57% |
8.31% |
3.23% |
0.61% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 110 |
Ryan Harrison |
1519 |
43.98% |
13.17% |
4.88% |
1.66% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 111 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1533 |
25.31% |
12.31% |
4.78% |
1.70% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 112 |
Tomas Berdych |
1721 |
74.69% |
54.95% |
34.91% |
20.61% |
6.95% |
2.61% |
0.88% |
| 113 |
Gael Monfils |
1709 |
79.83% |
60.04% |
39.60% |
11.50% |
6.18% |
2.23% |
0.72% |
| 114 |
Daniel Brands |
1470 |
20.17% |
8.79% |
3.01% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Kyle Edmund |
1538 |
57.71% |
19.48% |
8.39% |
1.28% |
0.40% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Alexander Ward |
1484 |
42.29% |
11.69% |
4.21% |
0.51% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1529 |
57.85% |
21.52% |
7.95% |
1.16% |
0.36% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 118 |
Brydan Klein |
1474 |
42.15% |
12.79% |
3.89% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1530 |
31.49% |
16.83% |
6.24% |
0.92% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1665 |
68.51% |
48.86% |
26.71% |
6.64% |
3.18% |
0.99% |
0.27% |
| 121 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1720 |
81.54% |
66.59% |
18.34% |
11.31% |
6.24% |
2.34% |
0.78% |
| 122 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1462 |
18.46% |
9.28% |
0.98% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1448 |
46.69% |
10.72% |
1.07% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Victor Estrella Burgos |
1471 |
53.31% |
13.42% |
1.47% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Adam Pavlasek |
1462 |
46.98% |
3.80% |
1.10% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Ernesto Escobedo |
1483 |
53.02% |
4.72% |
1.48% |
0.45% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Martin Klizan |
1506 |
6.90% |
3.78% |
1.28% |
0.43% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Novak Djokovic |
1958 |
93.10% |
87.71% |
74.29% |
63.70% |
52.20% |
35.13% |
22.56% |
