Monday, 10 July 2017

2017 Wimbledon Week 2 Predictions - Men's

Right now, it's late on Middle Sunday, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made  last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
Wimbledon Logo, © Wimbledon Championships
  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
  • Jared Donaldson had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, and h made it to the 3rd round before losing to Dominc Thiem. Martin Klizan, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Novak Djokovic in the 1st round.
  • Facundo Bagnis had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing to Radu Albot in round 1. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Alexandr Dolgopolov, lost his opening match as expected to Roger Federer.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Novak Djokovic the favourite for the title, with a 26.19% chance of winning the whole thing, with Andy Murray 2nd at 23.28%. The 3rd most likely winner is Rafael Nadal with 19.15%, and 4th is Roger Federer with 16.84%.
  • Andy Murray and Marin Cilic have the easiest draw to the title relative to their ranking, as they're the 2nd and 6th most likely to win the title, but are the 4th and 8th highest ranked players in the tournament.
  • On the other hand, 5 players are tied with the toughest draws relative to his ranking. Nadal, Raonic, Federer, Thiem and Mannarino are all 1 place less likely to win the title than their ranking would suggest.
  • As for the next match, Milos Raonic has the toughest draw. He is the 10th most likely to advance, but is the 7th highest ranked player competing.
  • The players with the easiest next match compared to their ranking right now are Sam Querrey and Kevin Anderson. They are the 9th and 8th most likely players to advance to the next round, while being the 14th and 13th highest ranked players remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


#NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
1
Andy Murray
192588.88%74.25%43.91%23.28%
2
Benoit Paire
156411.12%4.33%0.74%0.10%
3
Sam Querrey
163247.12%9.67%2.24%0.42%
4
Kevin Anderson
165252.88%11.75%2.95%0.60%
5
Rafael Nadal
193678.11%58.30%35.13%19.15%
6
Gilles Muller
171521.89%9.92%3.27%0.87%
7
Roberto Bautista Agut
172343.70%12.64%4.28%1.17%
8
Marin Cilic
176756.30%19.14%7.46%2.41%
9
Milos Raonic
176946.41%16.12%5.42%1.87%
10
Alexander Zverev
179453.59%20.27%7.42%2.80%
11
Grigor Dimitrov
170821.59%8.52%2.29%0.63%
12
Roger Federer
193278.41%55.09%30.07%16.84%
13
Dominic Thiem
177855.87%17.14%6.71%2.39%
14
Tomas Berdych
173744.13%11.65%3.95%1.22%
15
Adrian Mannarino
15689.43%2.35%0.40%0.06%
16
Novak Djokovic
196190.57%68.86%43.74%26.19%

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