Sunday, 2 July 2017

2017 Wimbledon Predictions - Men's

The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow,  and here are my predictions for the Men's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.

Wimbledon Logo, © Wimbledon Championships


But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 22.56% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 17.79%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 17.78% and Andy Murray 4th with 16.25%
  • Jared Donaldson has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 60th most likely winner, while he is only the 72nd highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Martin Klizan has the toughest draw. He is the 82nd most likely winner, but he is the 63rd highest ranked player competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Alexandr Dolgopolov, as he's the 125th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 44th of the competitors. 
  • Facundo Bagnis got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 55th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 124th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Andy Murray 1919 91.28% 84.66% 74.17% 60.28% 45.43% 28.77% 16.24%
2 Alexander Bublik 1511 8.72% 4.79% 2.00% 0.64% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
3 Joao Sousa 1482 51.73% 5.60% 2.12% 0.61% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
4 Dustin Brown 1470 48.27% 4.95% 1.80% 0.50% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
5 Jiri Vesely 1575 66.61% 33.10% 6.56% 2.63% 0.86% 0.20% 0.03%
6 Illya Marchenko 1455 33.39% 11.31% 1.41% 0.37% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
7 Dmitry Tursunov 1443 26.19% 9.78% 1.16% 0.29% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
8 Fabio Fognini 1623 73.81% 45.81% 10.79% 5.00% 1.92% 0.53% 0.11%
9 Nick Kyrgios 1728 79.55% 62.25% 41.89% 15.50% 8.09% 3.18% 1.03%
10 Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1492 20.45% 9.95% 3.63% 0.59% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
11 Rogerio Dutra Silva 1431 34.94% 7.21% 2.11% 0.27% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
12 Benoit Paire 1539 65.06% 20.59% 8.76% 1.71% 0.49% 0.10% 0.01%
13 Denis Shapovalov 1491 48.56% 15.48% 4.76% 0.77% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00%
14 Jerzy Janowicz 1501 51.44% 17.02% 5.42% 0.91% 0.23% 0.04% 0.00%
15 Malek Jaziri 1491 25.64% 12.63% 3.88% 0.63% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
16 Lucas Pouille 1676 74.36% 54.87% 29.54% 9.32% 4.22% 1.40% 0.37%
17 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1765 82.22% 68.61% 53.31% 31.80% 13.80% 6.06% 2.22%
18 Cameron Norrie 1499 17.78% 9.29% 4.09% 1.11% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
19 Simone Bolelli 1502 56.16% 13.36% 5.94% 1.62% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
20 Yen-Hsun Lu 1459 43.84% 8.74% 3.37% 0.78% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
21 Carlos Berlocq 1487 46.55% 18.63% 5.05% 1.31% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00%
22 Nikoloz Basilashvili 1511 53.45% 23.11% 6.84% 1.94% 0.35% 0.06% 0.01%
23 Thomas Fabbiano 1444 28.36% 11.92% 2.74% 0.60% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
24 Sam Querrey 1605 71.64% 46.33% 18.66% 7.31% 1.89% 0.49% 0.10%
25 Fernando Verdasco 1624 49.28% 32.52% 12.92% 5.86% 1.62% 0.45% 0.10%
26 Kevin Anderson 1629 50.72% 33.79% 13.63% 6.27% 1.77% 0.50% 0.11%
27 Norbert Gombos 1490 45.12% 14.13% 3.58% 1.05% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
28 Andreas Seppi 1524 54.88% 19.57% 5.61% 1.86% 0.35% 0.07% 0.01%
29 Tommy Haas 1454 47.84% 8.28% 2.66% 0.68% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
30 Ruben Bemelmans 1469 52.16% 9.65% 3.28% 0.89% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
31 Daniil Medvedev 1559 20.83% 13.25% 6.10% 2.27% 0.49% 0.11% 0.02%
32 Stan Wawrinka 1791 79.17% 68.82% 52.22% 34.64% 16.14% 7.62% 3.04%
33 Rafael Nadal 1928 91.42% 81.39% 72.75% 61.96% 47.69% 30.86% 17.79%
34 John Millman 1517 8.58% 3.85% 1.74% 0.66% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
35 Donald Young 1599 71.53% 12.33% 6.99% 3.42% 1.22% 0.30% 0.06%
36 Denis Istomin 1439 28.47% 2.42% 0.84% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
37 Thiago Monteiro 1451 42.01% 13.29% 1.52% 0.46% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
38 Andrew Whittington 1507 57.99% 22.57% 3.28% 1.21% 0.31% 0.05% 0.01%
39 Andrey Kuznetsov 1552 41.73% 24.90% 4.34% 1.85% 0.56% 0.11% 0.02%
40 Karen Khachanov 1610 58.27% 39.24% 8.55% 4.31% 1.59% 0.41% 0.08%
41 Ivo Karlovic 1601 59.25% 39.90% 19.10% 4.70% 1.68% 0.42% 0.08%
42 Aljaz Bedene 1536 40.75% 23.92% 9.47% 1.84% 0.52% 0.10% 0.01%
43 Damir Dzumhur 1494 56.30% 21.79% 7.53% 1.24% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01%
44 Renzo Olivo 1450 43.70% 14.39% 4.26% 0.58% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
45 Lukas Rosol 1459 47.99% 12.42% 4.81% 0.68% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
46 Henri Laaksonen 1473 52.01% 14.22% 5.78% 0.87% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
47 Marton Fucsovics 1458 19.80% 9.66% 3.73% 0.53% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
48 Gilles Muller 1701 80.20% 63.70% 45.32% 15.45% 7.56% 2.72% 0.80%
49 Kei Nishikori 1776 89.32% 77.10% 53.72% 35.95% 16.20% 7.33% 2.79%
50 Marco Cecchinato 1407 10.68% 4.59% 1.14% 0.25% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
51 Julien Bennetau 1457 50.29% 9.24% 2.78% 0.75% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
52 Sergiy Stakhovsky 1455 49.71% 9.06% 2.70% 0.72% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
53 Peter Gojowczyk 1485 51.73% 14.75% 3.67% 1.10% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
54 Marius Copil 1473 48.27% 13.14% 3.13% 0.90% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
55 Andreas Haider-Maurer 1464 20.26% 9.69% 2.23% 0.62% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
56 Roberto Bautista Agut 1702 79.74% 62.42% 30.63% 17.65% 6.46% 2.33% 0.69%
57 Steve Johnson 1623 65.45% 50.84% 22.49% 8.73% 2.48% 0.68% 0.15%
58 Nicolas Kicker 1512 34.55% 22.37% 6.81% 1.79% 0.34% 0.06% 0.01%
59 Facundo Bagnis 1413 52.01% 14.32% 2.92% 0.51% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
60 Radu Albot 1399 47.99% 12.47% 2.39% 0.39% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
61 Victor Troicki 1561 60.90% 18.65% 9.82% 3.09% 0.71% 0.15% 0.02%
62 Florian Mayer 1484 39.10% 8.72% 3.69% 0.87% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
63 Philipp Kohlschreiber 1613 31.25% 19.21% 11.44% 4.30% 1.18% 0.31% 0.06%
64 Marin Cilic 1750 68.75% 53.42% 40.43% 22.39% 9.41% 3.95% 1.38%
65 Milos Raonic 1756 82.13% 67.87% 51.90% 28.30% 12.01% 4.80% 1.82%
66 Jan-Lennard Struff 1491 17.87% 9.10% 3.89% 0.89% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
67 Mikhail Youzhny 1462 44.27% 9.28% 3.61% 0.73% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
68 Nicolas Mahut 1502 55.73% 13.75% 6.08% 1.45% 0.26% 0.04% 0.01%
69 Andrey Rublev 1466 45.12% 16.31% 4.21% 0.87% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
70 Stefano Travaglia 1500 54.88% 22.26% 6.52% 1.54% 0.28% 0.04% 0.01%
71 Jordan Thompson 1452 28.24% 12.80% 3.13% 0.61% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
72 Albert Ramos Vinolas 1614 71.76% 48.63% 20.64% 7.45% 2.04% 0.50% 0.11%
73 Jack Sock 1726 79.46% 62.09% 31.63% 18.74% 7.31% 2.67% 0.92%
74 Christian Garin 1491 20.54% 9.87% 2.40% 0.72% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
75 Thomaz Bellucci 1509 51.29% 14.62% 3.80% 1.22% 0.23% 0.04% 0.01%
76 Sebastian Ofner 1500 48.71% 13.41% 3.37% 1.05% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
77 Robin Haase 1522 65.45% 15.06% 5.23% 1.76% 0.34% 0.06% 0.01%
78 Frances Tiafoe 1411 34.55% 5.02% 1.15% 0.25% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
79 Evgeny Donskoy 1423 11.01% 4.57% 1.10% 0.25% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
80 Alexander Zverev 1786 88.99% 75.35% 51.31% 34.17% 15.69% 6.85% 2.86%
81 Grigor Dimitrov 1691 67.25% 48.54% 32.76% 10.85% 4.95% 1.61% 0.49%
82 Diego Schwartzman 1566 32.75% 18.47% 9.48% 2.09% 0.63% 0.13% 0.02%
83 James Ward 1405 28.59% 5.76% 1.76% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
84 Marcos Baghdatis 1564 71.41% 27.23% 13.90% 3.05% 0.91% 0.18% 0.03%
85 Dudi Sela 1447 48.85% 14.96% 4.21% 0.59% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
86 Marcel Granollers 1455 51.15% 16.15% 4.70% 0.68% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
87 Taylor Fritz 1485 29.18% 16.01% 5.22% 0.86% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
88 John Isner 1639 70.82% 52.89% 27.97% 7.89% 3.06% 0.83% 0.21%
89 Mischa Zverev 1570 54.16% 35.79% 6.93% 3.08% 0.94% 0.19% 0.04%
90 Bernard Tomic 1541 45.84% 28.53% 4.96% 2.01% 0.55% 0.10% 0.02%
91 Mikhail Kukushkin 1458 51.15% 18.51% 2.31% 0.70% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
92 Taro Daniel 1450 48.85% 17.16% 2.07% 0.61% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
93 Stefanos Tsitsipas 1470 46.12% 4.63% 1.99% 0.63% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
94 Dusan Lajovic 1497 53.88% 6.12% 2.86% 1.00% 0.23% 0.03% 0.00%
95 Alexandr Dolgopolov 1549 10.25% 6.06% 3.27% 1.36% 0.38% 0.07% 0.01%
96 Roger Federer 1926 89.75% 83.18% 75.61% 64.39% 48.48% 29.55% 17.78%
97 Dominic Thiem 1765 81.54% 63.88% 52.22% 33.87% 13.10% 5.63% 2.20%
98 Vasek Pospisil 1507 18.46% 8.44% 4.26% 1.33% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00%
99 Gilles Simon 1575 65.06% 20.48% 12.31% 4.87% 0.97% 0.21% 0.04%
100 Nicolas Jarry 1467 34.94% 7.20% 3.22% 0.86% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
101 Janko Tipsarevic 1467 45.69% 19.47% 4.72% 1.26% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%
102 Jared Donaldson 1497 54.31% 25.45% 6.93% 2.08% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01%
103 Horacio Zeballos 1533 54.45% 31.09% 9.67% 3.32% 0.56% 0.10% 0.02%
104 Paolo Lorenzi 1502 45.55% 24.00% 6.66% 2.04% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01%
105 Richard Gasquet 1700 66.23% 52.00% 30.14% 17.00% 5.36% 1.88% 0.59%
106 David Ferrer 1583 33.77% 22.01% 9.32% 3.88% 0.80% 0.18% 0.04%
107 Steve Darcis 1501 59.94% 17.35% 5.56% 1.77% 0.26% 0.04% 0.01%
108 Ricardas Berankis 1431 40.06% 8.63% 2.10% 0.52% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
109 Borna Coric 1561 56.02% 19.57% 8.31% 3.23% 0.61% 0.13% 0.02%
110 Ryan Harrison 1519 43.98% 13.17% 4.88% 1.66% 0.26% 0.05% 0.01%
111 Jeremy Chardy 1533 25.31% 12.31% 4.78% 1.70% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01%
112 Tomas Berdych 1721 74.69% 54.95% 34.91% 20.61% 6.95% 2.61% 0.88%
113 Gael Monfils 1709 79.83% 60.04% 39.60% 11.50% 6.18% 2.23% 0.72%
114 Daniel Brands 1470 20.17% 8.79% 3.01% 0.34% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
115 Kyle Edmund 1538 57.71% 19.48% 8.39% 1.28% 0.40% 0.08% 0.01%
116 Alexander Ward 1484 42.29% 11.69% 4.21% 0.51% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
117 Yuichi Sugita 1529 57.85% 21.52% 7.95% 1.16% 0.36% 0.07% 0.01%
118 Brydan Klein 1474 42.15% 12.79% 3.89% 0.45% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
119 Adrian Mannarino 1530 31.49% 16.83% 6.24% 0.92% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
120 Feliciano Lopez 1665 68.51% 48.86% 26.71% 6.64% 3.18% 0.99% 0.27%
121 Juan Martin del Potro 1720 81.54% 66.59% 18.34% 11.31% 6.24% 2.34% 0.78%
122 Thanasi Kokkinakis 1462 18.46% 9.28% 0.98% 0.28% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
123 Ernests Gulbis 1448 46.69% 10.72% 1.07% 0.29% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
124 Victor Estrella Burgos 1471 53.31% 13.42% 1.47% 0.43% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
125 Adam Pavlasek 1462 46.98% 3.80% 1.10% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
126 Ernesto Escobedo 1483 53.02% 4.72% 1.48% 0.45% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
127 Martin Klizan 1506 6.90% 3.78% 1.28% 0.43% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
128 Novak Djokovic 1958 93.10% 87.71% 74.29% 63.70% 52.20% 35.13% 22.56%

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