The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
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- Karolina Pliskova is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 12.12% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 11.57%. The 3rd most likely is Petra Kvitova with 9.47% and Elina Svitolina 4th with 7.99%
- Jennifer Brady has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 103rd most likely winner, while she is only the 116th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Timea Babos and Anna Blinkova have tough draws. They are the 111th and 101st most likely winners, but they are the 94th and 84th highest ranked players competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Ashleigh Barty, as she's the 115th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 30th of the competitors.
- Jennifer Brady also got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 49th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 116th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Angelique Kerber |
1718 |
83.04% |
63.69% |
45.10% |
30.14% |
18.22% |
9.64% |
4.81% |
| 2 |
Irina Falconi |
1442 |
16.96% |
6.82% |
2.31% |
0.71% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1522 |
53.45% |
16.41% |
7.31% |
2.99% |
1.03% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
| 4 |
Misaki Doi |
1498 |
46.55% |
13.08% |
5.39% |
2.04% |
0.64% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 5 |
Shelby Rogers |
1538 |
54.02% |
23.84% |
8.79% |
3.78% |
1.38% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
| 6 |
Julia Boserup |
1510 |
45.98% |
18.53% |
6.21% |
2.44% |
0.81% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 7 |
Oceane Dodin |
1503 |
33.90% |
15.87% |
5.19% |
2.00% |
0.64% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 8 |
Lucie Safarova |
1619 |
66.10% |
41.76% |
19.70% |
10.64% |
5.02% |
1.99% |
0.73% |
| 9 |
Kiki Bertens |
1577 |
52.16% |
32.18% |
15.12% |
6.56% |
2.73% |
0.94% |
0.30% |
| 10 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1562 |
47.84% |
28.53% |
12.84% |
5.32% |
2.11% |
0.69% |
0.21% |
| 11 |
Magda Linette |
1488 |
48.27% |
18.56% |
6.61% |
2.12% |
0.65% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 12 |
Bethanie Mattek-Sands |
1500 |
51.73% |
20.74% |
7.69% |
2.58% |
0.82% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
| 13 |
Yanina Wickmayer |
1495 |
54.31% |
17.21% |
7.50% |
2.48% |
0.77% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 14 |
Kateryna Bondarenko |
1465 |
45.69% |
12.93% |
5.10% |
1.50% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 15 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1477 |
23.40% |
11.56% |
4.75% |
1.47% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1683 |
76.60% |
58.31% |
40.39% |
23.23% |
12.97% |
6.25% |
2.82% |
| 17 |
Agnieszka Radwanska |
1676 |
73.25% |
53.90% |
33.94% |
19.09% |
10.71% |
5.06% |
2.24% |
| 18 |
Jelena Jankovic |
1501 |
26.75% |
13.49% |
5.29% |
1.79% |
0.59% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 19 |
Katie Boulter |
1500 |
50.58% |
16.61% |
6.50% |
2.19% |
0.72% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 20 |
Christina McHale |
1496 |
49.42% |
16.00% |
6.17% |
2.05% |
0.67% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 21 |
Kristina Kucova |
1462 |
44.55% |
12.82% |
4.20% |
1.23% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 22 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1500 |
55.45% |
18.52% |
6.94% |
2.34% |
0.77% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| 23 |
Monica Puig |
1579 |
40.06% |
25.41% |
12.17% |
5.29% |
2.28% |
0.79% |
0.25% |
| 24 |
Timea Bacsinszky |
1649 |
59.94% |
43.25% |
24.78% |
13.06% |
6.85% |
2.99% |
1.21% |
| 25 |
Lauren Davis |
1584 |
61.04% |
41.56% |
16.79% |
7.91% |
3.45% |
1.22% |
0.40% |
| 26 |
Varvara Lepchenko |
1506 |
38.96% |
22.48% |
6.96% |
2.55% |
0.86% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 27 |
Polona Hercog |
1429 |
44.13% |
14.55% |
3.33% |
0.92% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 28 |
Annika Beck |
1470 |
55.87% |
21.41% |
5.78% |
1.87% |
0.55% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 29 |
Ekaterina Makarova |
1582 |
68.88% |
24.97% |
14.64% |
6.86% |
2.98% |
1.04% |
0.34% |
| 30 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1444 |
31.12% |
6.68% |
2.65% |
0.77% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 31 |
Ons Jabeur |
1483 |
19.26% |
8.12% |
3.65% |
1.23% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1732 |
80.74% |
60.22% |
46.20% |
30.86% |
19.57% |
10.72% |
5.55% |
| 33 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1796 |
87.62% |
72.19% |
57.35% |
42.97% |
29.29% |
20.06% |
12.12% |
| 34 |
Evgeniya Rodina |
1456 |
12.38% |
4.93% |
1.76% |
0.56% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 35 |
Monica Niculescu |
1535 |
52.16% |
12.27% |
5.72% |
2.39% |
0.81% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
| 36 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1520 |
47.84% |
10.61% |
4.72% |
1.88% |
0.60% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 37 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1569 |
45.41% |
26.14% |
8.21% |
3.80% |
1.45% |
0.56% |
0.17% |
| 38 |
Julia Gorges |
1601 |
54.59% |
33.84% |
11.83% |
5.99% |
2.54% |
1.08% |
0.37% |
| 39 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1502 |
46.27% |
17.63% |
4.34% |
1.63% |
0.49% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Zhang Shuai |
1528 |
53.73% |
22.40% |
6.07% |
2.48% |
0.82% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 41 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1631 |
71.99% |
49.77% |
27.59% |
11.62% |
5.40% |
2.52% |
0.96% |
| 42 |
Petra Martic |
1467 |
28.01% |
13.05% |
4.47% |
1.07% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Denisa Allertova |
1498 |
52.16% |
19.87% |
7.56% |
2.04% |
0.60% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 44 |
Risa Ozaki |
1483 |
47.84% |
17.31% |
6.27% |
1.59% |
0.44% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 45 |
Han Xinyun |
1488 |
55.02% |
17.72% |
7.18% |
1.86% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 46 |
Zarina Diyas |
1453 |
44.98% |
12.71% |
4.57% |
1.03% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Arina Rodionova |
1453 |
22.09% |
10.43% |
3.75% |
0.85% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1672 |
77.91% |
59.14% |
38.60% |
18.24% |
9.49% |
4.96% |
2.17% |
| 49 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1700 |
79.08% |
51.26% |
36.18% |
20.22% |
10.53% |
5.91% |
2.80% |
| 50 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1469 |
20.92% |
6.89% |
2.74% |
0.73% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 51 |
Alison Riske |
1562 |
42.29% |
15.99% |
8.40% |
3.16% |
1.09% |
0.41% |
0.12% |
| 52 |
Sloane Stephens |
1616 |
57.71% |
25.85% |
15.50% |
6.92% |
2.85% |
1.27% |
0.46% |
| 53 |
Tatjana Maria |
1404 |
36.53% |
9.80% |
2.08% |
0.42% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1500 |
63.47% |
24.67% |
7.75% |
2.34% |
0.65% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 55 |
Mona Barthel |
1548 |
42.29% |
26.02% |
9.73% |
3.49% |
1.15% |
0.41% |
0.12% |
| 56 |
Coco Vandeweghe |
1602 |
57.71% |
39.51% |
17.63% |
7.54% |
2.98% |
1.27% |
0.44% |
| 57 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1612 |
74.69% |
39.24% |
16.79% |
8.30% |
3.38% |
1.49% |
0.53% |
| 58 |
Zheng Saisai |
1424 |
25.31% |
6.95% |
1.52% |
0.39% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Lara Arruabarrena |
1557 |
41.03% |
20.01% |
7.20% |
3.02% |
1.03% |
0.38% |
0.11% |
| 60 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1620 |
58.97% |
33.80% |
14.81% |
7.49% |
3.13% |
1.41% |
0.52% |
| 61 |
Tsvetana Pironkova |
1501 |
44.41% |
11.26% |
4.23% |
1.47% |
0.41% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 62 |
Sara Errani |
1540 |
55.59% |
16.36% |
7.00% |
2.78% |
0.89% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 63 |
Timea Babos |
1481 |
17.70% |
7.80% |
2.72% |
0.88% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 64 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1748 |
82.30% |
64.59% |
45.74% |
30.85% |
17.99% |
11.24% |
6.07% |
| 65 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1632 |
70.94% |
53.55% |
33.43% |
17.00% |
7.98% |
2.98% |
1.23% |
| 66 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1477 |
29.06% |
16.22% |
6.62% |
2.03% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 67 |
Jennifer Brady |
1450 |
54.31% |
17.28% |
6.42% |
1.78% |
0.45% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 68 |
Danka Kovinic |
1420 |
45.69% |
12.95% |
4.31% |
1.06% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 69 |
Naomi Broady |
1464 |
40.89% |
14.62% |
5.68% |
1.66% |
0.44% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 70 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1528 |
59.11% |
26.31% |
12.43% |
4.60% |
1.55% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
| 71 |
Sabine Lisicki |
1534 |
42.01% |
22.93% |
11.02% |
4.16% |
1.43% |
0.37% |
0.11% |
| 72 |
Ana Konjuh |
1590 |
57.99% |
36.14% |
20.08% |
9.06% |
3.76% |
1.21% |
0.43% |
| 73 |
Barbora Strycova |
1660 |
70.58% |
48.03% |
26.48% |
16.84% |
8.53% |
3.49% |
1.57% |
| 74 |
Veronica Cepede Royg |
1508 |
29.42% |
13.91% |
4.89% |
2.10% |
0.66% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 75 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1481 |
39.23% |
12.61% |
4.03% |
1.58% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 76 |
Naomi Osaka |
1557 |
60.77% |
25.46% |
10.54% |
5.23% |
1.95% |
0.55% |
0.18% |
| 77 |
Chang Kai-Chen |
1461 |
40.75% |
10.05% |
3.30% |
1.21% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 78 |
Wang Qiang |
1526 |
59.25% |
18.95% |
7.81% |
3.54% |
1.19% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| 79 |
Elise Mertens |
1561 |
30.39% |
17.83% |
8.20% |
4.11% |
1.55% |
0.45% |
0.14% |
| 80 |
Venus Williams |
1705 |
69.61% |
53.17% |
34.75% |
24.04% |
13.62% |
6.38% |
3.26% |
| 81 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1653 |
68.75% |
51.35% |
29.38% |
14.82% |
8.22% |
3.29% |
1.45% |
| 82 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1516 |
31.25% |
17.90% |
6.89% |
2.31% |
0.85% |
0.21% |
0.06% |
| 83 |
Francoise Abanda |
1467 |
50.58% |
15.67% |
5.06% |
1.42% |
0.44% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 84 |
Kurumi Nara |
1463 |
49.42% |
15.08% |
4.79% |
1.32% |
0.40% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 85 |
Camila Giorgi |
1555 |
51.29% |
21.15% |
10.12% |
3.85% |
1.62% |
0.46% |
0.14% |
| 86 |
Alize Cornet |
1546 |
48.71% |
19.50% |
9.09% |
3.36% |
1.38% |
0.37% |
0.11% |
| 87 |
Nao Hibino |
1477 |
25.20% |
9.97% |
3.74% |
1.09% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 88 |
Madison Keys |
1666 |
74.80% |
49.38% |
30.92% |
16.11% |
9.22% |
3.84% |
1.76% |
| 89 |
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni |
1567 |
55.02% |
33.91% |
12.15% |
5.47% |
2.39% |
0.71% |
0.23% |
| 90 |
Carina Witthoft |
1532 |
44.98% |
25.54% |
8.12% |
3.27% |
1.28% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
| 91 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1489 |
51.29% |
21.11% |
5.74% |
1.99% |
0.67% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
| 92 |
Irina Khromacheva |
1480 |
48.71% |
19.44% |
5.11% |
1.72% |
0.56% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 93 |
Francesca Schiavone |
1502 |
59.52% |
13.67% |
6.40% |
2.33% |
0.82% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 94 |
Mandy Minella |
1435 |
40.48% |
6.90% |
2.59% |
0.73% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1599 |
27.55% |
18.46% |
11.15% |
5.51% |
2.65% |
0.88% |
0.32% |
| 96 |
Elina Svitolina |
1767 |
72.45% |
60.97% |
48.74% |
34.70% |
24.29% |
13.43% |
7.99% |
| 97 |
Johanna Konta |
1741 |
81.45% |
64.73% |
50.18% |
28.89% |
15.85% |
9.70% |
5.43% |
| 98 |
Hseih Su-Wei |
1484 |
18.55% |
8.70% |
3.85% |
1.03% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 99 |
Donna Vekic |
1494 |
46.84% |
11.88% |
5.43% |
1.51% |
0.37% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 100 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1516 |
53.16% |
14.69% |
7.17% |
2.16% |
0.58% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 101 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1534 |
63.47% |
31.31% |
10.77% |
3.46% |
1.00% |
0.34% |
0.10% |
| 102 |
Maria Sakkari |
1438 |
36.53% |
13.12% |
3.16% |
0.71% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1544 |
51.58% |
29.05% |
10.34% |
3.44% |
1.03% |
0.36% |
0.11% |
| 104 |
Roberta Vinci |
1533 |
48.42% |
26.52% |
9.09% |
2.91% |
0.83% |
0.28% |
0.08% |
| 105 |
Caroline Garcia |
1626 |
71.05% |
49.82% |
20.19% |
9.97% |
3.96% |
1.82% |
0.73% |
| 106 |
Jana Cepelova |
1470 |
28.95% |
14.19% |
3.39% |
1.02% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 107 |
Duan Yingying |
1502 |
58.69% |
22.98% |
6.19% |
2.09% |
0.53% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 108 |
Ana Bogdan |
1441 |
41.31% |
13.01% |
2.77% |
0.75% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 109 |
Madison Brengle |
1474 |
49.42% |
9.64% |
3.81% |
1.17% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 110 |
Richel Hogenkamp |
1478 |
50.58% |
10.03% |
4.02% |
1.25% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 111 |
Johanna Larsson |
1527 |
18.46% |
10.58% |
4.93% |
1.82% |
0.51% |
0.17% |
0.05% |
| 112 |
Petra Kvitova |
1785 |
81.54% |
69.75% |
54.70% |
37.83% |
22.93% |
15.31% |
9.47% |
| 113 |
Elena Vesnina |
1595 |
63.74% |
23.95% |
12.75% |
4.57% |
1.70% |
0.71% |
0.26% |
| 114 |
Anna Blinkova |
1497 |
36.26% |
9.38% |
3.74% |
0.94% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 115 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1730 |
69.98% |
50.67% |
35.85% |
18.94% |
10.32% |
6.17% |
3.36% |
| 116 |
Catherine Bellis |
1583 |
30.02% |
16.00% |
8.26% |
2.84% |
1.01% |
0.41% |
0.14% |
| 117 |
Maryna Zanevska |
1415 |
33.39% |
8.59% |
1.84% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Heather Watson |
1535 |
66.61% |
27.04% |
9.32% |
2.71% |
0.82% |
0.28% |
0.08% |
| 119 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1539 |
36.13% |
20.27% |
7.09% |
2.09% |
0.64% |
0.22% |
0.07% |
| 120 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1638 |
63.87% |
44.10% |
21.16% |
8.69% |
3.69% |
1.75% |
0.74% |
| 121 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1624 |
62.67% |
35.98% |
13.31% |
6.45% |
2.63% |
1.20% |
0.48% |
| 122 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1534 |
37.33% |
16.65% |
4.59% |
1.68% |
0.50% |
0.17% |
0.05% |
| 123 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1542 |
42.57% |
18.38% |
5.21% |
1.95% |
0.61% |
0.21% |
0.06% |
| 124 |
Peng Shuai |
1594 |
57.43% |
29.00% |
9.77% |
4.34% |
1.61% |
0.67% |
0.24% |
| 125 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1476 |
58.27% |
10.66% |
3.72% |
1.10% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 126 |
Laura Robson |
1418 |
41.73% |
5.96% |
1.66% |
0.39% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Marina Erakovic |
1425 |
10.57% |
4.88% |
1.40% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Simona Halep |
1796 |
89.43% |
78.50% |
60.35% |
42.65% |
26.86% |
18.28% |
11.57% |
