Saturday 21 October 2017

2017 WTA Finals Preview

Next week, the WTA Finals are taking place in Singapore, with the top 8 players over the year taking part.

The 8 players competing at this year's WTA Finals, © MARK CHEONG

After the jump, I'll take a look at the players and how I expect the tournament to go. A full update for the Women's ratings will be completed later, once all of this week's matches finish.


The 8 tennis players who will be playing the WTA Finals, coloured by the group they are in, along with their ELO ratings are:
  1. Simona Halep - 1804
  2. Elina Svitolina - 1784
  3. Karolina Pliskova - 1768
  4. Garbine Muguruza - 1764
  5. Caroline Wozniacki - 1760
  6. Caroline Garcia - 1754
  7. Venus Williams - 1737
  8. Jelena Ostapenko - 1710
Last year's champion Dominika Cibulkova failed to qualify this year, so who will take her place as champion?

The Red Group is the tougher of the 2 groups, with the top 2 players participating, and the #5 and #6 players, and the White Group is the easier group, with the 3rd, 4th, 7th and 8th ranked players in it. Below, I've estimated the chance for each player to advance, make it to the final, and to win the tournament, ignoring changes in rating following each match.


Red GroupAdv1st2ndFinalWin
Simona Halep57.5%30.7%26.8%33%18%
Elina Svitolina52.3%26.4%25.8%29%15%
Caroline Wozniacki45.9%22.0%24.0%24%12%
Caroline Garcia44.4%20.9%23.4%23%11%



White GroupAdv1st2ndFinalWin
Karolina Pliskova56.1%29.4%26.7%27%14%
Garbine Muguruza55.0%28.6%26.5%26%13%
Venus Williams47.9%23.3%24.7%21%10%
Jelena Ostapenko40.9%18.8%22.2%17%7%
(NOTE: Because the finalists could come from the same group or both groups, the numbers for the winner are a best estimate)

Best of luck to all of the players who made it to the WTA Finals, and may the best player win!