The French Open is starting tomorrow morning, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of my percentage odds for you to view.
 |
| French Open logo, © Roland-Garros |
- Rafael Nadal is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 33.98% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic (based on previous form) next at 12.97%. The 3rd most likely is Alexander Zverev with 10.93% and Juan Martin del Potro 4th with 9.95%
- Casper Ruud has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 78th most likely winner, while he is only the 101st highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Jaume Munar has the toughest draw (based on the small number of ATP matches she's played). He is the 114th most likely winner, but he is the 88th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jeremy Chardy, as he's the 102nd most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 38th of the competitors.
- Dudi Sela got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 28th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 85th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Rafael Nadal |
1959 |
93.35% |
85.23% |
76.20% |
68.89% |
59.68% |
46.70% |
33.98% |
| 2 |
Simone Bolelli |
1500 |
6.65% |
2.85% |
1.11% |
0.46% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Joao Sousa |
1567 |
55.59% |
7.12% |
3.43% |
1.73% |
0.73% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 4 |
Guido Pella |
1528 |
44.41% |
4.80% |
2.05% |
0.92% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 5 |
Malek Jaziri |
1534 |
62.67% |
24.19% |
3.39% |
1.56% |
0.58% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 6 |
Mikhail Youzhny |
1444 |
37.33% |
10.21% |
0.98% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Andreas Seppi |
1572 |
39.78% |
23.87% |
3.90% |
1.99% |
0.85% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 8 |
Richard Gasquet |
1644 |
60.22% |
41.73% |
8.95% |
5.47% |
2.87% |
1.15% |
0.37% |
| 9 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1612 |
58.69% |
36.45% |
21.59% |
4.76% |
2.29% |
0.83% |
0.24% |
| 10 |
John Millman |
1551 |
41.31% |
22.17% |
11.27% |
1.98% |
0.79% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 11 |
Ryan Harrison |
1556 |
61.31% |
27.96% |
14.40% |
2.58% |
1.04% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
| 12 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1476 |
38.69% |
13.41% |
5.43% |
0.70% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Yuki Bhambri |
1518 |
55.87% |
24.31% |
10.55% |
1.63% |
0.58% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 14 |
Ruben Bemelmans |
1477 |
44.13% |
16.78% |
6.35% |
0.83% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 15 |
Jurgen Zopp |
1458 |
29.54% |
13.00% |
4.59% |
0.55% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Jack Sock |
1609 |
70.46% |
45.91% |
25.82% |
5.63% |
2.69% |
0.96% |
0.27% |
| 17 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1638 |
74.25% |
49.60% |
26.23% |
14.36% |
3.95% |
1.55% |
0.49% |
| 18 |
Calvin Hemery |
1454 |
25.75% |
10.64% |
3.14% |
0.96% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Mirza Basic |
1544 |
60.22% |
26.17% |
10.56% |
4.44% |
0.88% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
| 20 |
Adam Pavlasek |
1472 |
39.78% |
13.59% |
4.29% |
1.41% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Matthew Ebden |
1459 |
56.72% |
13.50% |
4.72% |
1.47% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 22 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1412 |
43.28% |
8.33% |
2.44% |
0.63% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Borna Coric |
1640 |
44.41% |
33.77% |
20.03% |
11.02% |
3.05% |
1.20% |
0.38% |
| 24 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1679 |
55.59% |
44.40% |
28.60% |
17.23% |
5.39% |
2.40% |
0.88% |
| 25 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1586 |
67.00% |
43.60% |
19.16% |
8.82% |
2.03% |
0.67% |
0.17% |
| 26 |
Sergiy Stakhovsky |
1463 |
33.00% |
15.83% |
4.51% |
1.36% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 27 |
Mischa Zverev |
1501 |
58.13% |
25.44% |
8.37% |
2.92% |
0.49% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 28 |
Florian Mayer |
1444 |
41.87% |
15.12% |
3.99% |
1.12% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1581 |
52.01% |
21.40% |
12.41% |
5.63% |
1.27% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
| 30 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1567 |
47.99% |
18.89% |
10.59% |
4.60% |
0.99% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
| 31 |
Paolo Lorenzi |
1442 |
19.17% |
6.10% |
2.37% |
0.66% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Kevin Anderson |
1692 |
80.83% |
53.60% |
38.61% |
23.36% |
7.60% |
3.51% |
1.35% |
| 33 |
Marin Cilic |
1754 |
85.55% |
69.82% |
51.35% |
35.68% |
19.66% |
8.12% |
3.78% |
| 34 |
James Duckworth |
1445 |
14.45% |
6.19% |
2.03% |
0.60% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1490 |
48.56% |
11.42% |
4.41% |
1.53% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1500 |
51.44% |
12.58% |
5.02% |
1.81% |
0.46% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1467 |
39.51% |
12.42% |
3.17% |
1.01% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 38 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1541 |
60.49% |
24.90% |
8.30% |
3.43% |
1.01% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
| 39 |
Steve Johnson |
1630 |
59.25% |
39.24% |
17.26% |
9.22% |
3.65% |
1.04% |
0.32% |
| 40 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1565 |
40.75% |
23.44% |
8.46% |
3.77% |
1.21% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
| 41 |
Fabio Fognini |
1665 |
75.12% |
57.70% |
35.00% |
17.69% |
7.76% |
2.47% |
0.86% |
| 42 |
Pablo Andujar |
1473 |
24.88% |
13.13% |
4.56% |
1.23% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Dudi Sela |
1490 |
64.54% |
21.39% |
7.89% |
2.28% |
0.55% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 44 |
Elias Ymer |
1386 |
35.46% |
7.78% |
1.92% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1467 |
38.55% |
11.59% |
4.08% |
1.08% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 46 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1548 |
61.45% |
24.81% |
11.29% |
4.02% |
1.21% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| 47 |
Alex De Minaur |
1538 |
33.51% |
17.76% |
7.85% |
2.70% |
0.78% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 48 |
Kyle Edmund |
1657 |
66.49% |
45.83% |
27.43% |
13.58% |
5.82% |
1.81% |
0.61% |
| 49 |
John Isner |
1658 |
74.58% |
53.93% |
31.08% |
13.25% |
6.61% |
2.06% |
0.70% |
| 50 |
Noah Rubin |
1471 |
25.42% |
11.97% |
3.93% |
0.91% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 51 |
Horacio Zeballos |
1501 |
53.02% |
18.72% |
6.83% |
1.78% |
0.53% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 52 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1480 |
46.98% |
15.38% |
5.21% |
1.25% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Peter Polansky |
1445 |
37.33% |
9.32% |
3.04% |
0.64% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1535 |
62.67% |
22.33% |
9.84% |
2.88% |
0.97% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 55 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1571 |
35.20% |
21.02% |
10.28% |
3.39% |
1.30% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
| 56 |
Tomas Berdych |
1677 |
64.80% |
47.32% |
29.80% |
13.37% |
7.01% |
2.32% |
0.84% |
| 57 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1537 |
62.80% |
39.16% |
9.82% |
3.94% |
1.35% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
| 58 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1446 |
37.20% |
18.44% |
3.20% |
0.93% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Jordan Thompson |
1419 |
42.57% |
16.30% |
2.52% |
0.65% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Casper Ruud |
1471 |
57.43% |
26.10% |
5.04% |
1.60% |
0.43% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 61 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1568 |
56.02% |
13.21% |
8.15% |
3.61% |
1.37% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 62 |
Julien Bennetau |
1526 |
43.98% |
8.75% |
4.90% |
1.90% |
0.62% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 63 |
Nicolas Mahut |
1519 |
14.23% |
6.50% |
3.57% |
1.35% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 64 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1831 |
85.77% |
71.54% |
62.81% |
48.54% |
34.87% |
17.47% |
9.95% |
| 65 |
David Goffin |
1756 |
77.52% |
62.50% |
44.65% |
28.16% |
13.52% |
7.00% |
2.83% |
| 66 |
Robin Haase |
1541 |
22.48% |
12.34% |
5.33% |
1.89% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 67 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1531 |
58.27% |
16.07% |
6.73% |
2.30% |
0.52% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 68 |
Corentin Moutet |
1473 |
41.73% |
9.09% |
3.12% |
0.86% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Martin Klizan |
1553 |
59.39% |
24.56% |
8.67% |
3.19% |
0.78% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
| 70 |
Laslo Djere |
1487 |
40.61% |
13.36% |
3.73% |
1.09% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Elliot Benchetrit |
1500 |
28.36% |
13.12% |
3.85% |
1.18% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 72 |
Gael Monfils |
1661 |
71.64% |
48.96% |
23.91% |
12.13% |
4.38% |
1.72% |
0.51% |
| 73 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1740 |
80.11% |
67.11% |
47.09% |
28.39% |
13.05% |
6.47% |
2.50% |
| 74 |
Bernard Tomic |
1498 |
19.89% |
11.18% |
4.33% |
1.28% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 75 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1464 |
52.88% |
11.93% |
4.11% |
1.06% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Marius Copil |
1444 |
47.12% |
9.78% |
3.13% |
0.75% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Federico Delbonis |
1512 |
57.01% |
20.60% |
6.73% |
2.09% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 78 |
Thomaz Bellucci |
1463 |
42.99% |
12.99% |
3.57% |
0.92% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Jozef Kovalik |
1480 |
25.97% |
12.58% |
3.67% |
1.01% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 80 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1662 |
74.03% |
53.83% |
27.37% |
13.70% |
4.97% |
1.96% |
0.59% |
| 81 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1697 |
77.11% |
56.14% |
19.87% |
11.25% |
5.80% |
2.55% |
0.86% |
| 82 |
Denis Istomin |
1486 |
22.89% |
10.36% |
1.66% |
0.50% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Marcos Baghdatis |
1564 |
70.22% |
27.00% |
5.94% |
2.34% |
0.80% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 84 |
Santiago Giraldo |
1415 |
29.78% |
6.50% |
0.76% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Jaume Munar |
1488 |
33.64% |
4.48% |
1.47% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
David Ferrer |
1606 |
66.36% |
14.40% |
6.88% |
3.08% |
1.21% |
0.40% |
0.10% |
| 87 |
Rogerio Dutra Silva |
1421 |
6.94% |
2.13% |
0.54% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
Novak Djokovic |
1872 |
93.06% |
78.99% |
62.88% |
48.36% |
35.55% |
23.68% |
12.97% |
| 89 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1595 |
61.45% |
35.67% |
14.41% |
3.93% |
1.49% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
| 90 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1514 |
38.55% |
17.98% |
5.53% |
1.10% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1485 |
38.01% |
14.81% |
4.09% |
0.72% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 92 |
Taylor Fritz |
1570 |
61.99% |
31.54% |
11.77% |
2.92% |
1.02% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
| 93 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1527 |
50.29% |
13.85% |
6.35% |
1.33% |
0.40% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 94 |
Jared Donaldson |
1525 |
49.71% |
13.59% |
6.19% |
1.29% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 95 |
Victor Troicki |
1511 |
19.89% |
9.52% |
4.15% |
0.81% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 96 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1753 |
80.11% |
63.04% |
47.51% |
21.65% |
12.78% |
6.56% |
2.63% |
| 97 |
Dominic Thiem |
1749 |
81.79% |
62.73% |
49.23% |
30.15% |
15.73% |
7.56% |
3.00% |
| 98 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1488 |
18.21% |
7.75% |
3.52% |
1.00% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 99 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1567 |
59.25% |
19.18% |
10.85% |
4.10% |
1.23% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
| 100 |
Carlos Taberner |
1502 |
40.75% |
10.34% |
4.90% |
1.47% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 101 |
Oscar Otte |
1500 |
53.45% |
23.97% |
6.95% |
2.07% |
0.48% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 102 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1476 |
46.55% |
19.34% |
5.12% |
1.39% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1459 |
33.77% |
15.44% |
3.82% |
0.97% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Gilles Muller |
1576 |
66.23% |
41.24% |
15.61% |
6.07% |
1.89% |
0.51% |
0.11% |
| 105 |
Kei Nishikori |
1768 |
82.39% |
64.46% |
49.14% |
32.54% |
17.76% |
8.99% |
3.77% |
| 106 |
Maxime Janvier |
1500 |
17.61% |
7.71% |
3.16% |
1.03% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 107 |
Benoit Paire |
1571 |
59.52% |
18.24% |
9.30% |
3.83% |
1.17% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
| 108 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1504 |
40.48% |
9.59% |
3.98% |
1.32% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 109 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1490 |
37.33% |
14.29% |
3.74% |
1.18% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 110 |
Gilles Simon |
1580 |
62.67% |
31.94% |
11.57% |
4.90% |
1.54% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
| 111 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1554 |
44.98% |
22.97% |
7.62% |
2.98% |
0.85% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
| 112 |
Sam Querrey |
1589 |
55.02% |
30.81% |
11.49% |
5.00% |
1.63% |
0.46% |
0.11% |
| 113 |
Lucas Pouille |
1640 |
60.90% |
37.86% |
19.17% |
7.29% |
3.23% |
1.10% |
0.30% |
| 114 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1563 |
39.10% |
20.13% |
8.10% |
2.42% |
0.84% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
| 115 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1585 |
62.13% |
28.86% |
12.46% |
4.00% |
1.49% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
| 116 |
Cameron Norrie |
1499 |
37.87% |
13.15% |
4.23% |
1.01% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Karen Khachanov |
1605 |
77.52% |
33.73% |
17.57% |
6.01% |
2.39% |
0.72% |
0.17% |
| 118 |
Andreas Haider-Maurer |
1390 |
22.48% |
4.34% |
1.06% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez |
1501 |
24.24% |
10.23% |
3.85% |
0.93% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1699 |
75.76% |
51.70% |
33.56% |
15.04% |
7.83% |
3.25% |
1.10% |
| 121 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1563 |
68.75% |
45.64% |
11.82% |
4.87% |
1.68% |
0.43% |
0.09% |
| 122 |
Denis Kudla |
1426 |
31.25% |
14.81% |
2.22% |
0.55% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Gregoire Barrere |
1466 |
57.29% |
24.31% |
4.32% |
1.25% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 124 |
Radu Albot |
1415 |
42.71% |
15.24% |
2.18% |
0.51% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1552 |
57.85% |
11.99% |
6.91% |
2.74% |
0.91% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
| 126 |
Jiri Vesely |
1497 |
42.15% |
6.97% |
3.49% |
1.14% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 127 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1450 |
9.63% |
3.75% |
1.63% |
0.44% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Alexander Zverev |
1839 |
90.37% |
77.30% |
67.43% |
51.65% |
35.99% |
21.59% |
10.93% |
