Saturday, 26 May 2018

2018 French Open Predictions - Women's

The French Open is starting tomorrow morning, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of my percentage odds for you to view.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros


  • Elina Svitolina is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 13.09% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 12.16%. The 3rd most likely is Serena Williams (based on previous form) with 11.99% and Petra Kvitova 4th with 10.16%
  • Deborah Chiesa has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating (based on the small number of WTA matches she's played). I have her as the 78th most likely winner, while she is only the 90th highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Natalia Vikhlyantseva has a tough draw. She is the 112th most likely winner, but she is the 81st highest ranked player competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Kristyna Pliskova, as she's the 126th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 52nd of the competitors. 
  • Jennifer Brady got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 47th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 99th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Simona Halep 1828 82.88% 73.36% 62.24% 47.48% 32.53% 19.90% 12.16%
2 Alison Riske 1554 17.12% 10.52% 5.69% 2.37% 0.79% 0.21% 0.06%
3 Myrtille Georges 1488 54.88% 9.44% 4.23% 1.41% 0.37% 0.08% 0.01%
4 Taylor Townsend 1454 45.12% 6.67% 2.67% 0.78% 0.18% 0.03% 0.01%
5 Bethanie Mattek-Sands 1476 36.66% 17.05% 3.54% 1.13% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
6 Johanna Larsson 1571 63.34% 37.94% 11.15% 4.90% 1.74% 0.50% 0.14%
7 Andrea Petkovic 1455 39.37% 15.23% 2.91% 0.85% 0.20% 0.03% 0.01%
8 Kristina Mladenovic 1530 60.63% 29.77% 7.57% 2.92% 0.89% 0.22% 0.05%
9 Daria Gavrilova 1631 63.34% 38.97% 20.39% 8.06% 3.47% 1.24% 0.43%
10 Sorana Cirstea 1536 36.66% 17.62% 7.05% 2.06% 0.65% 0.16% 0.04%
11 Bernada Pera 1536 46.41% 19.28% 7.71% 2.26% 0.71% 0.18% 0.04%
12 Elena Vesnina 1561 53.59% 24.13% 10.42% 3.32% 1.14% 0.31% 0.08%
13 Heather Watson 1479 50.72% 14.24% 5.15% 1.23% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01%
14 Oceane Dodin 1474 49.28% 13.57% 4.82% 1.13% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
15 Varvara Lepchenko 1493 23.40% 12.25% 4.66% 1.17% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01%
16 Elise Mertens 1699 76.60% 59.94% 39.80% 18.94% 9.86% 4.36% 1.91%
17 Angelique Kerber 1763 82.22% 64.24% 47.32% 30.87% 17.36% 9.14% 4.80%
18 Mona Barthel 1497 17.78% 7.75% 2.97% 0.94% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
19 Ana Bogdan 1536 48.42% 13.27% 5.79% 2.10% 0.60% 0.15% 0.04%
20 Marketa Vondrousova 1547 51.58% 14.73% 6.65% 2.51% 0.75% 0.20% 0.05%
21 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1560 57.29% 24.90% 8.60% 3.38% 1.06% 0.29% 0.08%
22 Denisa Allertova 1509 42.71% 15.59% 4.49% 1.49% 0.39% 0.09% 0.02%
23 Aryna Sabalenka 1560 39.23% 20.84% 7.20% 2.83% 0.89% 0.24% 0.07%
24 Kiki Bertens 1636 60.77% 38.67% 16.99% 8.34% 3.35% 1.21% 0.43%
25 Zhang Shuai 1548 64.40% 33.47% 11.37% 4.00% 1.20% 0.31% 0.08%
26 Kristina Kucova 1445 35.60% 13.38% 3.07% 0.73% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
27 Irina-Camelia Begu 1565 61.31% 35.25% 12.69% 4.73% 1.51% 0.42% 0.12%
28 Anna Karolina Schmiedlova 1485 38.69% 17.90% 4.82% 1.35% 0.32% 0.06% 0.01%
29 Peng Shuai 1570 57.15% 18.48% 10.31% 3.91% 1.27% 0.36% 0.10%
30 Aleksandra Krunic 1520 42.85% 11.52% 5.61% 1.79% 0.48% 0.11% 0.03%
31 Duan Yingying 1485 17.70% 7.26% 3.18% 0.89% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
32 Caroline Garcia 1752 82.30% 62.74% 48.95% 30.15% 16.54% 8.47% 4.32%
33 Garbine Muguruza 1722 62.80% 50.58% 34.27% 23.93% 10.33% 5.03% 2.36%
34 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1631 37.20% 26.44% 14.77% 8.59% 2.73% 1.01% 0.35%
35 Fiona Ferro 1435 40.75% 7.82% 2.34% 0.74% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
36 Carina Witthoft 1500 59.25% 15.16% 5.75% 2.30% 0.43% 0.10% 0.02%
37 Samantha Stosur 1555 55.73% 23.69% 9.08% 4.32% 1.02% 0.29% 0.08%
38 Yanina Wickmayer 1515 44.27% 16.49% 5.51% 2.32% 0.46% 0.11% 0.02%
39 Polona Hercog 1488 27.66% 11.89% 3.60% 1.38% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
40 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1655 72.34% 47.94% 24.67% 15.14% 5.25% 2.09% 0.80%
41 Magdalena Rybarikova 1577 64.80% 39.38% 18.80% 7.84% 2.02% 0.62% 0.18%
42 Luksika Kumkhum 1471 35.20% 16.09% 5.39% 1.54% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
43 Belinda Bencic 1509 52.44% 23.94% 9.20% 3.04% 0.59% 0.14% 0.03%
44 Deborah Chiesa 1492 47.56% 20.59% 7.45% 2.31% 0.42% 0.09% 0.02%
45 Lesia Tsurenko 1553 58.69% 23.27% 12.52% 4.83% 1.13% 0.32% 0.08%
46 Stefanie Vogele 1492 41.31% 13.08% 5.91% 1.83% 0.33% 0.07% 0.01%
47 Laura Siegemund 1592 41.59% 24.57% 14.55% 6.36% 1.74% 0.56% 0.17%
48 Coco Vandeweghe 1651 58.41% 39.08% 26.19% 13.54% 4.62% 1.82% 0.68%
49 Julia Gorges 1703 60.22% 46.15% 18.09% 8.49% 5.14% 2.37% 1.05%
50 Dominika Cibulkova 1631 39.78% 27.23% 8.37% 3.15% 1.60% 0.59% 0.21%
51 Alison Van Uytvanck 1493 48.99% 12.85% 2.29% 0.51% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
52 Isabelle Wallace 1500 51.01% 13.78% 2.53% 0.58% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
53 Kristyna Pliskova 1557 14.88% 6.03% 2.43% 0.70% 0.29% 0.08% 0.02%
54 Serena Williams 1860 85.12% 66.84% 52.15% 35.14% 27.63% 18.39% 11.99%
55 Natalia Vikhlyantseva 1502 27.32% 4.34% 1.45% 0.34% 0.11% 0.03% 0.01%
56 Ashleigh Barty 1672 72.68% 22.79% 12.71% 5.44% 3.07% 1.29% 0.52%
57 Maria Sharapova 1730 84.45% 66.86% 33.91% 15.59% 9.99% 4.97% 2.38%
58 Richel Hogenkamp 1436 15.55% 6.41% 1.16% 0.18% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
59 Kateryna Bondarenko 1479 45.12% 11.21% 2.44% 0.46% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
60 Donna Vekic 1513 54.88% 15.52% 3.88% 0.84% 0.29% 0.07% 0.02%
61 Lucie Safarova 1614 66.36% 21.09% 9.50% 3.02% 1.46% 0.51% 0.17%
62 Jessika Ponchet 1496 33.64% 6.77% 2.09% 0.42% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
63 Barbora Krejcikova 1505 15.55% 6.27% 2.00% 0.42% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
64 Karolina Pliskova 1799 84.45% 65.86% 45.03% 24.74% 17.90% 10.53% 6.04%
65 Jelena Ostapenko 1675 75.76% 35.59% 21.39% 11.76% 5.23% 2.30% 0.88%
66 Kateryna Kozlova 1477 24.24% 5.60% 1.87% 0.55% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00%
67 Katerina Siniakova 1558 25.64% 10.38% 4.57% 1.80% 0.55% 0.16% 0.04%
68 Victoria Azarenka 1743 74.36% 48.43% 33.32% 21.28% 11.31% 6.00% 2.83%
69 Zheng Saisai 1408 21.30% 6.12% 1.09% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
70 Ekaterina Makarova 1635 78.70% 45.85% 19.71% 9.77% 3.86% 1.50% 0.50%
71 Kurumi Nara 1437 25.86% 7.92% 1.60% 0.40% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
72 Barbora Strycova 1620 74.14% 40.11% 16.44% 7.81% 2.95% 1.09% 0.34%
73 Johanna Konta 1659 73.92% 56.45% 29.32% 14.38% 6.11% 2.56% 0.93%
74 Yulia Putintseva 1478 26.08% 13.90% 4.00% 1.05% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01%
75 Jennifer Brady 1467 53.73% 16.67% 4.59% 1.15% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
76 Amandine Hesse 1441 46.27% 12.98% 3.22% 0.72% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00%
77 Petra Martic 1572 58.27% 20.68% 10.28% 3.83% 1.23% 0.38% 0.10%
78 Wang Yafan 1514 41.73% 11.91% 5.01% 1.51% 0.39% 0.10% 0.02%
79 Wang Qiang 1564 28.36% 14.83% 7.21% 2.62% 0.82% 0.25% 0.06%
80 Venus Williams 1725 71.64% 52.57% 36.36% 21.13% 10.74% 5.44% 2.44%
81 Madison Keys 1674 70.70% 50.47% 30.25% 13.20% 6.67% 2.92% 1.11%
82 Sachia Vickery 1521 29.30% 14.94% 5.90% 1.59% 0.48% 0.12% 0.03%
83 Caroline Dolehide 1538 58.13% 21.83% 9.10% 2.60% 0.85% 0.23% 0.05%
84 Viktorija Golubic 1481 41.87% 12.76% 4.39% 1.02% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01%
85 Magda Linette 1476 42.85% 12.60% 4.29% 0.98% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
86 Zarina Diyas 1526 57.15% 20.25% 8.18% 2.24% 0.70% 0.18% 0.04%
87 Sofia Kenin 1515 27.89% 14.36% 5.60% 1.47% 0.44% 0.11% 0.02%
88 Naomi Osaka 1680 72.11% 52.79% 32.29% 14.32% 7.35% 3.28% 1.28%
89 Mihaela Buzarnescu 1561 59.80% 32.33% 8.94% 3.79% 1.34% 0.40% 0.10%
90 Vania King 1492 40.20% 17.84% 3.83% 1.28% 0.35% 0.08% 0.01%
91 Rebecca Peterson 1464 35.33% 14.22% 2.74% 0.83% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
92 Hseih Su-Wei 1569 64.67% 35.61% 10.13% 4.40% 1.60% 0.49% 0.13%
93 Francesca Schiavone 1473 45.69% 7.27% 2.97% 0.93% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
94 Viktoria Kuzmova 1503 54.31% 9.83% 4.43% 1.54% 0.44% 0.10% 0.02%
95 Ajla Tomljanovic 1508 13.55% 7.14% 3.27% 1.16% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
96 Elina Svitolina 1830 86.45% 75.77% 63.70% 48.65% 34.47% 22.21% 13.09%
97 Petra Kvitova 1813 88.17% 73.08% 58.33% 42.62% 28.97% 17.93% 10.16%
98 Veronica Cepede Royg 1464 11.83% 4.68% 1.74% 0.49% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
99 Lara Arruabarrena 1510 42.99% 8.52% 3.67% 1.24% 0.37% 0.09% 0.02%
100 Timea Babos 1559 57.01% 13.73% 6.82% 2.73% 0.97% 0.28% 0.07%
101 Alexandra Dulgheru 1446 43.28% 13.45% 2.46% 0.65% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00%
102 Christina McHale 1493 56.72% 20.86% 4.62% 1.47% 0.41% 0.09% 0.02%
103 Madison Brengle 1437 23.82% 10.70% 1.88% 0.48% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
104 Anett Kontaveit 1639 76.18% 54.99% 20.48% 10.42% 4.76% 1.85% 0.63%
105 Anastasija Sevastova 1667 77.62% 49.89% 28.93% 12.67% 6.25% 2.66% 0.99%
106 Mariana Duque Marino 1451 22.38% 7.96% 2.44% 0.50% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
107 Camila Giorgi 1606 74.58% 35.76% 17.89% 6.51% 2.69% 0.94% 0.28%
108 Grace Min 1419 25.42% 6.40% 1.74% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
109 Magdalena Frech 1454 46.27% 12.05% 3.54% 0.74% 0.18% 0.03% 0.01%
110 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1480 53.73% 15.51% 5.03% 1.17% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01%
111 Arantxa Rus 1497 24.55% 13.30% 4.59% 1.14% 0.32% 0.07% 0.01%
112 Sloane Stephens 1692 75.45% 59.14% 35.85% 16.83% 8.86% 4.07% 1.64%
113 Daria Kasatkina 1697 72.91% 54.56% 35.70% 19.22% 9.29% 4.32% 1.78%
114 Kaia Kanepi 1525 27.09% 14.41% 6.03% 1.97% 0.54% 0.14% 0.03%
115 Tatjana Maria 1402 30.51% 6.17% 1.64% 0.33% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
116 Kirsten Flipkens 1545 69.49% 24.86% 11.08% 3.88% 1.14% 0.32% 0.07%
117 Mandy Minella 1415 30.39% 7.39% 1.86% 0.40% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
118 Maria Sakkari 1559 69.61% 29.48% 12.44% 4.56% 1.42% 0.42% 0.10%
119 Ana Konjuh 1588 43.70% 26.18% 12.05% 4.83% 1.66% 0.54% 0.15%
120 Carla Suarez Navarro 1632 56.30% 36.95% 19.19% 8.75% 3.49% 1.33% 0.44%
121 Alize Cornet 1583 54.31% 33.51% 12.18% 5.51% 1.87% 0.60% 0.16%
122 Sara Errani 1553 45.69% 26.30% 8.66% 3.57% 1.08% 0.31% 0.08%
123 Chloe Paquet 1480 44.84% 16.79% 4.26% 1.36% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01%
124 Pauline Parmentier 1516 55.16% 23.39% 6.77% 2.46% 0.65% 0.16% 0.03%
125 Dalila Jakupovic 1492 54.45% 11.64% 4.99% 1.67% 0.40% 0.09% 0.02%
126 Georgina Garcia Perez 1461 45.55% 8.51% 3.29% 0.98% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
127 Danielle Collins 1557 21.69% 13.27% 6.91% 2.89% 0.89% 0.26% 0.06%
128 Caroline Wozniacki 1780 78.31% 66.58% 52.93% 37.63% 22.29% 12.84% 6.71%

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