Saturday, 26 May 2018

2018 French Open Predictions - Men's

The French Open is starting tomorrow morning, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of my percentage odds for you to view.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros


  • Rafael Nadal is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 33.98% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic (based on previous form) next at 12.97%. The 3rd most likely is Alexander Zverev with 10.93% and Juan Martin del Potro 4th with 9.95%
  • Casper Ruud has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 78th most likely winner, while he is only the 101st highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Jaume Munar has the toughest draw (based on the small number of ATP matches she's played). He is the 114th most likely winner, but he is the 88th highest ranked player competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Jeremy Chardy, as he's the 102nd most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 38th of the competitors. 
  • Dudi Sela got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 28th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 85th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Rafael Nadal 1959 93.35% 85.23% 76.20% 68.89% 59.68% 46.70% 33.98%
2 Simone Bolelli 1500 6.65% 2.85% 1.11% 0.46% 0.15% 0.04% 0.01%
3 Joao Sousa 1567 55.59% 7.12% 3.43% 1.73% 0.73% 0.22% 0.05%
4 Guido Pella 1528 44.41% 4.80% 2.05% 0.92% 0.34% 0.09% 0.02%
5 Malek Jaziri 1534 62.67% 24.19% 3.39% 1.56% 0.58% 0.16% 0.03%
6 Mikhail Youzhny 1444 37.33% 10.21% 0.98% 0.33% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
7 Andreas Seppi 1572 39.78% 23.87% 3.90% 1.99% 0.85% 0.27% 0.07%
8 Richard Gasquet 1644 60.22% 41.73% 8.95% 5.47% 2.87% 1.15% 0.37%
9 Denis Shapovalov 1612 58.69% 36.45% 21.59% 4.76% 2.29% 0.83% 0.24%
10 John Millman 1551 41.31% 22.17% 11.27% 1.98% 0.79% 0.23% 0.05%
11 Ryan Harrison 1556 61.31% 27.96% 14.40% 2.58% 1.04% 0.31% 0.07%
12 Maximilian Marterer 1476 38.69% 13.41% 5.43% 0.70% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
13 Yuki Bhambri 1518 55.87% 24.31% 10.55% 1.63% 0.58% 0.15% 0.03%
14 Ruben Bemelmans 1477 44.13% 16.78% 6.35% 0.83% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
15 Jurgen Zopp 1458 29.54% 13.00% 4.59% 0.55% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
16 Jack Sock 1609 70.46% 45.91% 25.82% 5.63% 2.69% 0.96% 0.27%
17 Diego Schwartzman 1638 74.25% 49.60% 26.23% 14.36% 3.95% 1.55% 0.49%
18 Calvin Hemery 1454 25.75% 10.64% 3.14% 0.96% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00%
19 Mirza Basic 1544 60.22% 26.17% 10.56% 4.44% 0.88% 0.25% 0.05%
20 Adam Pavlasek 1472 39.78% 13.59% 4.29% 1.41% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
21 Matthew Ebden 1459 56.72% 13.50% 4.72% 1.47% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
22 Thomas Fabbiano 1412 43.28% 8.33% 2.44% 0.63% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
23 Borna Coric 1640 44.41% 33.77% 20.03% 11.02% 3.05% 1.20% 0.38%
24 Philipp Kohlschreiber 1679 55.59% 44.40% 28.60% 17.23% 5.39% 2.40% 0.88%
25 Feliciano Lopez 1586 67.00% 43.60% 19.16% 8.82% 2.03% 0.67% 0.17%
26 Sergiy Stakhovsky 1463 33.00% 15.83% 4.51% 1.36% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
27 Mischa Zverev 1501 58.13% 25.44% 8.37% 2.92% 0.49% 0.12% 0.02%
28 Florian Mayer 1444 41.87% 15.12% 3.99% 1.12% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00%
29 Aljaz Bedene 1581 52.01% 21.40% 12.41% 5.63% 1.27% 0.41% 0.10%
30 Pablo Cuevas 1567 47.99% 18.89% 10.59% 4.60% 0.99% 0.30% 0.07%
31 Paolo Lorenzi 1442 19.17% 6.10% 2.37% 0.66% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
32 Kevin Anderson 1692 80.83% 53.60% 38.61% 23.36% 7.60% 3.51% 1.35%
33 Marin Cilic 1754 85.55% 69.82% 51.35% 35.68% 19.66% 8.12% 3.78%
34 James Duckworth 1445 14.45% 6.19% 2.03% 0.60% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
35 Hubert Hurkacz 1490 48.56% 11.42% 4.41% 1.53% 0.37% 0.06% 0.01%
36 Tennys Sandgren 1500 51.44% 12.58% 5.02% 1.81% 0.46% 0.08% 0.01%
37 Evgeny Donskoy 1467 39.51% 12.42% 3.17% 1.01% 0.22% 0.03% 0.01%
38 Jan-Lennard Struff 1541 60.49% 24.90% 8.30% 3.43% 1.01% 0.21% 0.04%
39 Steve Johnson 1630 59.25% 39.24% 17.26% 9.22% 3.65% 1.04% 0.32%
40 Adrian Mannarino 1565 40.75% 23.44% 8.46% 3.77% 1.21% 0.27% 0.06%
41 Fabio Fognini 1665 75.12% 57.70% 35.00% 17.69% 7.76% 2.47% 0.86%
42 Pablo Andujar 1473 24.88% 13.13% 4.56% 1.23% 0.28% 0.04% 0.01%
43 Dudi Sela 1490 64.54% 21.39% 7.89% 2.28% 0.55% 0.09% 0.02%
44 Elias Ymer 1386 35.46% 7.78% 1.92% 0.36% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
45 Vasek Pospisil 1467 38.55% 11.59% 4.08% 1.08% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01%
46 Marton Fucsovics 1548 61.45% 24.81% 11.29% 4.02% 1.21% 0.26% 0.06%
47 Alex De Minaur 1538 33.51% 17.76% 7.85% 2.70% 0.78% 0.16% 0.03%
48 Kyle Edmund 1657 66.49% 45.83% 27.43% 13.58% 5.82% 1.81% 0.61%
49 John Isner 1658 74.58% 53.93% 31.08% 13.25% 6.61% 2.06% 0.70%
50 Noah Rubin 1471 25.42% 11.97% 3.93% 0.91% 0.24% 0.04% 0.01%
51 Horacio Zeballos 1501 53.02% 18.72% 6.83% 1.78% 0.53% 0.09% 0.02%
52 Yuichi Sugita 1480 46.98% 15.38% 5.21% 1.25% 0.35% 0.06% 0.01%
53 Peter Polansky 1445 37.33% 9.32% 3.04% 0.64% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
54 Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1535 62.67% 22.33% 9.84% 2.88% 0.97% 0.20% 0.04%
55 Jeremy Chardy 1571 35.20% 21.02% 10.28% 3.39% 1.30% 0.30% 0.07%
56 Tomas Berdych 1677 64.80% 47.32% 29.80% 13.37% 7.01% 2.32% 0.84%
57 Albert Ramos Vinolas 1537 62.80% 39.16% 9.82% 3.94% 1.35% 0.27% 0.06%
58 Mikhail Kukushkin 1446 37.20% 18.44% 3.20% 0.93% 0.22% 0.03% 0.00%
59 Jordan Thompson 1419 42.57% 16.30% 2.52% 0.65% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
60 Casper Ruud 1471 57.43% 26.10% 5.04% 1.60% 0.43% 0.07% 0.01%
61 Leonardo Mayer 1568 56.02% 13.21% 8.15% 3.61% 1.37% 0.31% 0.08%
62 Julien Bennetau 1526 43.98% 8.75% 4.90% 1.90% 0.62% 0.12% 0.02%
63 Nicolas Mahut 1519 14.23% 6.50% 3.57% 1.35% 0.43% 0.08% 0.02%
64 Juan Martin del Potro 1831 85.77% 71.54% 62.81% 48.54% 34.87% 17.47% 9.95%
65 David Goffin 1756 77.52% 62.50% 44.65% 28.16% 13.52% 7.00% 2.83%
66 Robin Haase 1541 22.48% 12.34% 5.33% 1.89% 0.44% 0.11% 0.02%
67 Ivo Karlovic 1531 58.27% 16.07% 6.73% 2.30% 0.52% 0.13% 0.02%
68 Corentin Moutet 1473 41.73% 9.09% 3.12% 0.86% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00%
69 Martin Klizan 1553 59.39% 24.56% 8.67% 3.19% 0.78% 0.21% 0.04%
70 Laslo Djere 1487 40.61% 13.36% 3.73% 1.09% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
71 Elliot Benchetrit 1500 28.36% 13.12% 3.85% 1.18% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
72 Gael Monfils 1661 71.64% 48.96% 23.91% 12.13% 4.38% 1.72% 0.51%
73 Nick Kyrgios 1740 80.11% 67.11% 47.09% 28.39% 13.05% 6.47% 2.50%
74 Bernard Tomic 1498 19.89% 11.18% 4.33% 1.28% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
75 Marco Cecchinato 1464 52.88% 11.93% 4.11% 1.06% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00%
76 Marius Copil 1444 47.12% 9.78% 3.13% 0.75% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
77 Federico Delbonis 1512 57.01% 20.60% 6.73% 2.09% 0.43% 0.10% 0.02%
78 Thomaz Bellucci 1463 42.99% 12.99% 3.57% 0.92% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00%
79 Jozef Kovalik 1480 25.97% 12.58% 3.67% 1.01% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
80 Pablo Carreno Busta 1662 74.03% 53.83% 27.37% 13.70% 4.97% 1.96% 0.59%
81 Roberto Bautista Agut 1697 77.11% 56.14% 19.87% 11.25% 5.80% 2.55% 0.86%
82 Denis Istomin 1486 22.89% 10.36% 1.66% 0.50% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00%
83 Marcos Baghdatis 1564 70.22% 27.00% 5.94% 2.34% 0.80% 0.22% 0.05%
84 Santiago Giraldo 1415 29.78% 6.50% 0.76% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
85 Jaume Munar 1488 33.64% 4.48% 1.47% 0.44% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
86 David Ferrer 1606 66.36% 14.40% 6.88% 3.08% 1.21% 0.40% 0.10%
87 Rogerio Dutra Silva 1421 6.94% 2.13% 0.54% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
88 Novak Djokovic 1872 93.06% 78.99% 62.88% 48.36% 35.55% 23.68% 12.97%
89 Fernando Verdasco 1595 61.45% 35.67% 14.41% 3.93% 1.49% 0.47% 0.11%
90 Yoshihito Nishioka 1514 38.55% 17.98% 5.53% 1.10% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01%
91 Guido Andreozzi 1485 38.01% 14.81% 4.09% 0.72% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
92 Taylor Fritz 1570 61.99% 31.54% 11.77% 2.92% 1.02% 0.29% 0.06%
93 Nicolas Jarry 1527 50.29% 13.85% 6.35% 1.33% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02%
94 Jared Donaldson 1525 49.71% 13.59% 6.19% 1.29% 0.38% 0.09% 0.02%
95 Victor Troicki 1511 19.89% 9.52% 4.15% 0.81% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
96 Grigor Dimitrov 1753 80.11% 63.04% 47.51% 21.65% 12.78% 6.56% 2.63%
97 Dominic Thiem 1749 81.79% 62.73% 49.23% 30.15% 15.73% 7.56% 3.00%
98 Ilya Ivashka 1488 18.21% 7.75% 3.52% 1.00% 0.22% 0.04% 0.01%
99 Stefanos Tsitsipas 1567 59.25% 19.18% 10.85% 4.10% 1.23% 0.32% 0.07%
100 Carlos Taberner 1502 40.75% 10.34% 4.90% 1.47% 0.35% 0.07% 0.01%
101 Oscar Otte 1500 53.45% 23.97% 6.95% 2.07% 0.48% 0.10% 0.02%
102 Matteo Berrettini 1476 46.55% 19.34% 5.12% 1.39% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01%
103 Ernests Gulbis 1459 33.77% 15.44% 3.82% 0.97% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
104 Gilles Muller 1576 66.23% 41.24% 15.61% 6.07% 1.89% 0.51% 0.11%
105 Kei Nishikori 1768 82.39% 64.46% 49.14% 32.54% 17.76% 8.99% 3.77%
106 Maxime Janvier 1500 17.61% 7.71% 3.16% 1.03% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01%
107 Benoit Paire 1571 59.52% 18.24% 9.30% 3.83% 1.17% 0.31% 0.07%
108 Roberto Carballes Baena 1504 40.48% 9.59% 3.98% 1.32% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01%
109 Nikoloz Basilashvili 1490 37.33% 14.29% 3.74% 1.18% 0.26% 0.05% 0.01%
110 Gilles Simon 1580 62.67% 31.94% 11.57% 4.90% 1.54% 0.42% 0.09%
111 Frances Tiafoe 1554 44.98% 22.97% 7.62% 2.98% 0.85% 0.21% 0.04%
112 Sam Querrey 1589 55.02% 30.81% 11.49% 5.00% 1.63% 0.46% 0.11%
113 Lucas Pouille 1640 60.90% 37.86% 19.17% 7.29% 3.23% 1.10% 0.30%
114 Daniil Medvedev 1563 39.10% 20.13% 8.10% 2.42% 0.84% 0.21% 0.04%
115 Peter Gojowczyk 1585 62.13% 28.86% 12.46% 4.00% 1.49% 0.42% 0.09%
116 Cameron Norrie 1499 37.87% 13.15% 4.23% 1.01% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
117 Karen Khachanov 1605 77.52% 33.73% 17.57% 6.01% 2.39% 0.72% 0.17%
118 Andreas Haider-Maurer 1390 22.48% 4.34% 1.06% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
119 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1501 24.24% 10.23% 3.85% 0.93% 0.26% 0.05% 0.01%
120 Stan Wawrinka 1699 75.76% 51.70% 33.56% 15.04% 7.83% 3.25% 1.10%
121 Damir Dzumhur 1563 68.75% 45.64% 11.82% 4.87% 1.68% 0.43% 0.09%
122 Denis Kudla 1426 31.25% 14.81% 2.22% 0.55% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
123 Gregoire Barrere 1466 57.29% 24.31% 4.32% 1.25% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01%
124 Radu Albot 1415 42.71% 15.24% 2.18% 0.51% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
125 Dusan Lajovic 1552 57.85% 11.99% 6.91% 2.74% 0.91% 0.22% 0.04%
126 Jiri Vesely 1497 42.15% 6.97% 3.49% 1.14% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01%
127 Ricardas Berankis 1450 9.63% 3.75% 1.63% 0.44% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
128 Alexander Zverev 1839 90.37% 77.30% 67.43% 51.65% 35.99% 21.59% 10.93%

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