The French Open is starting tomorrow morning, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of my percentage odds for you to view.
 |
| French Open logo, © Roland-Garros |
- Elina Svitolina is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 13.09% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 12.16%. The 3rd most likely is Serena Williams (based on previous form) with 11.99% and Petra Kvitova 4th with 10.16%
- Deborah Chiesa has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating (based on the small number of WTA matches she's played). I have her as the 78th most likely winner, while she is only the 90th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Natalia Vikhlyantseva has a tough draw. She is the 112th most likely winner, but she is the 81st highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Kristyna Pliskova, as she's the 126th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 52nd of the competitors.
- Jennifer Brady got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 47th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 99th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Simona Halep |
1828 |
82.88% |
73.36% |
62.24% |
47.48% |
32.53% |
19.90% |
12.16% |
| 2 |
Alison Riske |
1554 |
17.12% |
10.52% |
5.69% |
2.37% |
0.79% |
0.21% |
0.06% |
| 3 |
Myrtille Georges |
1488 |
54.88% |
9.44% |
4.23% |
1.41% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 4 |
Taylor Townsend |
1454 |
45.12% |
6.67% |
2.67% |
0.78% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Bethanie Mattek-Sands |
1476 |
36.66% |
17.05% |
3.54% |
1.13% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 6 |
Johanna Larsson |
1571 |
63.34% |
37.94% |
11.15% |
4.90% |
1.74% |
0.50% |
0.14% |
| 7 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1455 |
39.37% |
15.23% |
2.91% |
0.85% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 8 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1530 |
60.63% |
29.77% |
7.57% |
2.92% |
0.89% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 9 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1631 |
63.34% |
38.97% |
20.39% |
8.06% |
3.47% |
1.24% |
0.43% |
| 10 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1536 |
36.66% |
17.62% |
7.05% |
2.06% |
0.65% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 11 |
Bernada Pera |
1536 |
46.41% |
19.28% |
7.71% |
2.26% |
0.71% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 12 |
Elena Vesnina |
1561 |
53.59% |
24.13% |
10.42% |
3.32% |
1.14% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 13 |
Heather Watson |
1479 |
50.72% |
14.24% |
5.15% |
1.23% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Oceane Dodin |
1474 |
49.28% |
13.57% |
4.82% |
1.13% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 15 |
Varvara Lepchenko |
1493 |
23.40% |
12.25% |
4.66% |
1.17% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 16 |
Elise Mertens |
1699 |
76.60% |
59.94% |
39.80% |
18.94% |
9.86% |
4.36% |
1.91% |
| 17 |
Angelique Kerber |
1763 |
82.22% |
64.24% |
47.32% |
30.87% |
17.36% |
9.14% |
4.80% |
| 18 |
Mona Barthel |
1497 |
17.78% |
7.75% |
2.97% |
0.94% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 19 |
Ana Bogdan |
1536 |
48.42% |
13.27% |
5.79% |
2.10% |
0.60% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 20 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1547 |
51.58% |
14.73% |
6.65% |
2.51% |
0.75% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| 21 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1560 |
57.29% |
24.90% |
8.60% |
3.38% |
1.06% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
| 22 |
Denisa Allertova |
1509 |
42.71% |
15.59% |
4.49% |
1.49% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 23 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1560 |
39.23% |
20.84% |
7.20% |
2.83% |
0.89% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| 24 |
Kiki Bertens |
1636 |
60.77% |
38.67% |
16.99% |
8.34% |
3.35% |
1.21% |
0.43% |
| 25 |
Zhang Shuai |
1548 |
64.40% |
33.47% |
11.37% |
4.00% |
1.20% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 26 |
Kristina Kucova |
1445 |
35.60% |
13.38% |
3.07% |
0.73% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1565 |
61.31% |
35.25% |
12.69% |
4.73% |
1.51% |
0.42% |
0.12% |
| 28 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1485 |
38.69% |
17.90% |
4.82% |
1.35% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Peng Shuai |
1570 |
57.15% |
18.48% |
10.31% |
3.91% |
1.27% |
0.36% |
0.10% |
| 30 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1520 |
42.85% |
11.52% |
5.61% |
1.79% |
0.48% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 31 |
Duan Yingying |
1485 |
17.70% |
7.26% |
3.18% |
0.89% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Caroline Garcia |
1752 |
82.30% |
62.74% |
48.95% |
30.15% |
16.54% |
8.47% |
4.32% |
| 33 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1722 |
62.80% |
50.58% |
34.27% |
23.93% |
10.33% |
5.03% |
2.36% |
| 34 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1631 |
37.20% |
26.44% |
14.77% |
8.59% |
2.73% |
1.01% |
0.35% |
| 35 |
Fiona Ferro |
1435 |
40.75% |
7.82% |
2.34% |
0.74% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Carina Witthoft |
1500 |
59.25% |
15.16% |
5.75% |
2.30% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 37 |
Samantha Stosur |
1555 |
55.73% |
23.69% |
9.08% |
4.32% |
1.02% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
| 38 |
Yanina Wickmayer |
1515 |
44.27% |
16.49% |
5.51% |
2.32% |
0.46% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 39 |
Polona Hercog |
1488 |
27.66% |
11.89% |
3.60% |
1.38% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 40 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1655 |
72.34% |
47.94% |
24.67% |
15.14% |
5.25% |
2.09% |
0.80% |
| 41 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1577 |
64.80% |
39.38% |
18.80% |
7.84% |
2.02% |
0.62% |
0.18% |
| 42 |
Luksika Kumkhum |
1471 |
35.20% |
16.09% |
5.39% |
1.54% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Belinda Bencic |
1509 |
52.44% |
23.94% |
9.20% |
3.04% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 44 |
Deborah Chiesa |
1492 |
47.56% |
20.59% |
7.45% |
2.31% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 45 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1553 |
58.69% |
23.27% |
12.52% |
4.83% |
1.13% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
| 46 |
Stefanie Vogele |
1492 |
41.31% |
13.08% |
5.91% |
1.83% |
0.33% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Laura Siegemund |
1592 |
41.59% |
24.57% |
14.55% |
6.36% |
1.74% |
0.56% |
0.17% |
| 48 |
Coco Vandeweghe |
1651 |
58.41% |
39.08% |
26.19% |
13.54% |
4.62% |
1.82% |
0.68% |
| 49 |
Julia Gorges |
1703 |
60.22% |
46.15% |
18.09% |
8.49% |
5.14% |
2.37% |
1.05% |
| 50 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1631 |
39.78% |
27.23% |
8.37% |
3.15% |
1.60% |
0.59% |
0.21% |
| 51 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1493 |
48.99% |
12.85% |
2.29% |
0.51% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 52 |
Isabelle Wallace |
1500 |
51.01% |
13.78% |
2.53% |
0.58% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1557 |
14.88% |
6.03% |
2.43% |
0.70% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 54 |
Serena Williams |
1860 |
85.12% |
66.84% |
52.15% |
35.14% |
27.63% |
18.39% |
11.99% |
| 55 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1502 |
27.32% |
4.34% |
1.45% |
0.34% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 56 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1672 |
72.68% |
22.79% |
12.71% |
5.44% |
3.07% |
1.29% |
0.52% |
| 57 |
Maria Sharapova |
1730 |
84.45% |
66.86% |
33.91% |
15.59% |
9.99% |
4.97% |
2.38% |
| 58 |
Richel Hogenkamp |
1436 |
15.55% |
6.41% |
1.16% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Kateryna Bondarenko |
1479 |
45.12% |
11.21% |
2.44% |
0.46% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Donna Vekic |
1513 |
54.88% |
15.52% |
3.88% |
0.84% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 61 |
Lucie Safarova |
1614 |
66.36% |
21.09% |
9.50% |
3.02% |
1.46% |
0.51% |
0.17% |
| 62 |
Jessika Ponchet |
1496 |
33.64% |
6.77% |
2.09% |
0.42% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1505 |
15.55% |
6.27% |
2.00% |
0.42% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 64 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1799 |
84.45% |
65.86% |
45.03% |
24.74% |
17.90% |
10.53% |
6.04% |
| 65 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1675 |
75.76% |
35.59% |
21.39% |
11.76% |
5.23% |
2.30% |
0.88% |
| 66 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1477 |
24.24% |
5.60% |
1.87% |
0.55% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1558 |
25.64% |
10.38% |
4.57% |
1.80% |
0.55% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 68 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1743 |
74.36% |
48.43% |
33.32% |
21.28% |
11.31% |
6.00% |
2.83% |
| 69 |
Zheng Saisai |
1408 |
21.30% |
6.12% |
1.09% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Ekaterina Makarova |
1635 |
78.70% |
45.85% |
19.71% |
9.77% |
3.86% |
1.50% |
0.50% |
| 71 |
Kurumi Nara |
1437 |
25.86% |
7.92% |
1.60% |
0.40% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 72 |
Barbora Strycova |
1620 |
74.14% |
40.11% |
16.44% |
7.81% |
2.95% |
1.09% |
0.34% |
| 73 |
Johanna Konta |
1659 |
73.92% |
56.45% |
29.32% |
14.38% |
6.11% |
2.56% |
0.93% |
| 74 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1478 |
26.08% |
13.90% |
4.00% |
1.05% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 75 |
Jennifer Brady |
1467 |
53.73% |
16.67% |
4.59% |
1.15% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Amandine Hesse |
1441 |
46.27% |
12.98% |
3.22% |
0.72% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Petra Martic |
1572 |
58.27% |
20.68% |
10.28% |
3.83% |
1.23% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
| 78 |
Wang Yafan |
1514 |
41.73% |
11.91% |
5.01% |
1.51% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 79 |
Wang Qiang |
1564 |
28.36% |
14.83% |
7.21% |
2.62% |
0.82% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
| 80 |
Venus Williams |
1725 |
71.64% |
52.57% |
36.36% |
21.13% |
10.74% |
5.44% |
2.44% |
| 81 |
Madison Keys |
1674 |
70.70% |
50.47% |
30.25% |
13.20% |
6.67% |
2.92% |
1.11% |
| 82 |
Sachia Vickery |
1521 |
29.30% |
14.94% |
5.90% |
1.59% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 83 |
Caroline Dolehide |
1538 |
58.13% |
21.83% |
9.10% |
2.60% |
0.85% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 84 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1481 |
41.87% |
12.76% |
4.39% |
1.02% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Magda Linette |
1476 |
42.85% |
12.60% |
4.29% |
0.98% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 86 |
Zarina Diyas |
1526 |
57.15% |
20.25% |
8.18% |
2.24% |
0.70% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 87 |
Sofia Kenin |
1515 |
27.89% |
14.36% |
5.60% |
1.47% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 88 |
Naomi Osaka |
1680 |
72.11% |
52.79% |
32.29% |
14.32% |
7.35% |
3.28% |
1.28% |
| 89 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1561 |
59.80% |
32.33% |
8.94% |
3.79% |
1.34% |
0.40% |
0.10% |
| 90 |
Vania King |
1492 |
40.20% |
17.84% |
3.83% |
1.28% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1464 |
35.33% |
14.22% |
2.74% |
0.83% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 92 |
Hseih Su-Wei |
1569 |
64.67% |
35.61% |
10.13% |
4.40% |
1.60% |
0.49% |
0.13% |
| 93 |
Francesca Schiavone |
1473 |
45.69% |
7.27% |
2.97% |
0.93% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 94 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1503 |
54.31% |
9.83% |
4.43% |
1.54% |
0.44% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 95 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1508 |
13.55% |
7.14% |
3.27% |
1.16% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 96 |
Elina Svitolina |
1830 |
86.45% |
75.77% |
63.70% |
48.65% |
34.47% |
22.21% |
13.09% |
| 97 |
Petra Kvitova |
1813 |
88.17% |
73.08% |
58.33% |
42.62% |
28.97% |
17.93% |
10.16% |
| 98 |
Veronica Cepede Royg |
1464 |
11.83% |
4.68% |
1.74% |
0.49% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Lara Arruabarrena |
1510 |
42.99% |
8.52% |
3.67% |
1.24% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 100 |
Timea Babos |
1559 |
57.01% |
13.73% |
6.82% |
2.73% |
0.97% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
| 101 |
Alexandra Dulgheru |
1446 |
43.28% |
13.45% |
2.46% |
0.65% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Christina McHale |
1493 |
56.72% |
20.86% |
4.62% |
1.47% |
0.41% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 103 |
Madison Brengle |
1437 |
23.82% |
10.70% |
1.88% |
0.48% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1639 |
76.18% |
54.99% |
20.48% |
10.42% |
4.76% |
1.85% |
0.63% |
| 105 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1667 |
77.62% |
49.89% |
28.93% |
12.67% |
6.25% |
2.66% |
0.99% |
| 106 |
Mariana Duque Marino |
1451 |
22.38% |
7.96% |
2.44% |
0.50% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Camila Giorgi |
1606 |
74.58% |
35.76% |
17.89% |
6.51% |
2.69% |
0.94% |
0.28% |
| 108 |
Grace Min |
1419 |
25.42% |
6.40% |
1.74% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Magdalena Frech |
1454 |
46.27% |
12.05% |
3.54% |
0.74% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 110 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1480 |
53.73% |
15.51% |
5.03% |
1.17% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 111 |
Arantxa Rus |
1497 |
24.55% |
13.30% |
4.59% |
1.14% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 112 |
Sloane Stephens |
1692 |
75.45% |
59.14% |
35.85% |
16.83% |
8.86% |
4.07% |
1.64% |
| 113 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1697 |
72.91% |
54.56% |
35.70% |
19.22% |
9.29% |
4.32% |
1.78% |
| 114 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1525 |
27.09% |
14.41% |
6.03% |
1.97% |
0.54% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 115 |
Tatjana Maria |
1402 |
30.51% |
6.17% |
1.64% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1545 |
69.49% |
24.86% |
11.08% |
3.88% |
1.14% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
| 117 |
Mandy Minella |
1415 |
30.39% |
7.39% |
1.86% |
0.40% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Maria Sakkari |
1559 |
69.61% |
29.48% |
12.44% |
4.56% |
1.42% |
0.42% |
0.10% |
| 119 |
Ana Konjuh |
1588 |
43.70% |
26.18% |
12.05% |
4.83% |
1.66% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
| 120 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1632 |
56.30% |
36.95% |
19.19% |
8.75% |
3.49% |
1.33% |
0.44% |
| 121 |
Alize Cornet |
1583 |
54.31% |
33.51% |
12.18% |
5.51% |
1.87% |
0.60% |
0.16% |
| 122 |
Sara Errani |
1553 |
45.69% |
26.30% |
8.66% |
3.57% |
1.08% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 123 |
Chloe Paquet |
1480 |
44.84% |
16.79% |
4.26% |
1.36% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 124 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1516 |
55.16% |
23.39% |
6.77% |
2.46% |
0.65% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 125 |
Dalila Jakupovic |
1492 |
54.45% |
11.64% |
4.99% |
1.67% |
0.40% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 126 |
Georgina Garcia Perez |
1461 |
45.55% |
8.51% |
3.29% |
0.98% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 127 |
Danielle Collins |
1557 |
21.69% |
13.27% |
6.91% |
2.89% |
0.89% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| 128 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1780 |
78.31% |
66.58% |
52.93% |
37.63% |
22.29% |
12.84% |
6.71% |
