The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table for percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Rafael Nadal is the favourite to win the title, with a 28.25% chance to win. Novak Djokovic is 2nd with 22.46%, Roger Federer 3rd with 18.87% and Alexander Zverev 4th with 6.13%
- Evgeny Donskoy and Filip Krajinovic have a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have them as the 119th and 76th best players here, but they're the 96th and 53rd most likely winners respectively.
- On the other hand, Federico Delbonis has the toughest draw, as he's the 114th most likely winner, but he's the 87th highest ranked player
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Roberto Bautista Agut, as he's the 95th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 11th of the competitors.
- Michael Mmoh got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 43rd most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 104th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1968 |
94.69% |
80.41% |
74.29% |
61.67% |
49.33% |
39.01% |
22.46% |
| 2 |
Mitchell Krueger |
1468 |
5.31% |
1.30% |
0.55% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
1696 |
60.99% |
12.49% |
9.02% |
4.70% |
2.29% |
1.06% |
0.26% |
| 4 |
Martin Klizan |
1618 |
39.01% |
5.80% |
3.63% |
1.52% |
0.59% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
| 5 |
Taro Daniel |
1474 |
49.99% |
19.76% |
1.89% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 6 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1474 |
50.01% |
19.77% |
1.89% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Pablo Andujar |
1457 |
31.50% |
14.99% |
1.32% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1592 |
68.50% |
45.48% |
7.41% |
2.85% |
1.02% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
| 9 |
David Goffin |
1727 |
80.60% |
64.98% |
38.88% |
12.36% |
6.51% |
3.30% |
0.92% |
| 10 |
Christian Garin |
1480 |
19.40% |
9.74% |
2.80% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Marcel Granollers |
1445 |
41.90% |
9.22% |
2.31% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 12 |
Marius Copil |
1502 |
58.10% |
16.05% |
5.01% |
0.70% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Jiri Vesely |
1526 |
49.26% |
14.67% |
5.19% |
0.81% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Ryan Harrison |
1532 |
50.74% |
15.40% |
5.54% |
0.88% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 15 |
Lloyd Harris |
1480 |
18.97% |
8.14% |
2.45% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1732 |
81.03% |
61.79% |
37.83% |
12.20% |
6.50% |
3.34% |
0.94% |
| 17 |
Fabio Fognini |
1687 |
71.90% |
50.15% |
33.42% |
15.29% |
4.51% |
2.04% |
0.49% |
| 18 |
Jaume Munar |
1524 |
28.10% |
13.33% |
5.97% |
1.62% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 19 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1549 |
52.37% |
19.65% |
9.50% |
2.83% |
0.49% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 20 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1533 |
47.63% |
16.87% |
7.78% |
2.18% |
0.36% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1497 |
48.69% |
18.78% |
6.50% |
1.59% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 22 |
Malek Jaziri |
1506 |
51.31% |
20.38% |
7.28% |
1.85% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Luca Vanni |
1408 |
21.89% |
8.07% |
1.97% |
0.34% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1629 |
78.11% |
52.78% |
27.58% |
10.67% |
2.55% |
0.97% |
0.18% |
| 25 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1631 |
71.45% |
45.52% |
16.36% |
8.74% |
2.11% |
0.80% |
0.15% |
| 26 |
Li Zhe |
1471 |
28.55% |
11.78% |
2.41% |
0.78% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Guido Pella |
1537 |
51.33% |
22.23% |
5.83% |
2.38% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 28 |
Joao Sousa |
1528 |
48.67% |
20.47% |
5.19% |
2.05% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1522 |
58.44% |
11.95% |
5.18% |
2.00% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 30 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1463 |
41.56% |
6.62% |
2.34% |
0.73% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Kamil Majchrzak |
1490 |
13.06% |
6.39% |
2.49% |
0.86% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Kei Nishikori |
1819 |
86.94% |
75.04% |
60.20% |
46.09% |
20.44% |
12.82% |
4.91% |
| 33 |
Alexander Zverev |
1836 |
85.57% |
71.44% |
58.65% |
43.06% |
31.65% |
15.19% |
6.13% |
| 34 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1527 |
14.43% |
6.72% |
3.04% |
1.00% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 35 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1585 |
63.01% |
15.58% |
8.29% |
3.35% |
1.41% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
| 36 |
Ugo Humbert |
1492 |
36.99% |
6.25% |
2.54% |
0.73% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
Alex Bolt |
1409 |
32.38% |
9.05% |
1.31% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Jack Sock |
1537 |
67.62% |
29.65% |
7.28% |
2.49% |
0.90% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 39 |
Bjorn Fratangelo |
1447 |
26.12% |
11.29% |
1.93% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 40 |
Gilles Simon |
1628 |
73.88% |
50.01% |
16.97% |
7.87% |
3.75% |
0.92% |
0.17% |
| 41 |
Chung Hyeon |
1584 |
65.91% |
33.05% |
11.72% |
3.81% |
1.60% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
| 42 |
Bradley Klahn |
1470 |
34.09% |
11.68% |
2.61% |
0.55% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Sam Querrey |
1601 |
55.86% |
32.28% |
12.18% |
4.19% |
1.85% |
0.41% |
0.07% |
| 44 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1561 |
44.14% |
22.99% |
7.46% |
2.24% |
0.87% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
| 45 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1700 |
70.13% |
34.64% |
23.38% |
10.79% |
6.17% |
1.96% |
0.49% |
| 46 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1552 |
29.87% |
8.77% |
4.14% |
1.20% |
0.45% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1702 |
49.31% |
27.74% |
18.79% |
8.71% |
5.00% |
1.60% |
0.40% |
| 48 |
Milos Raonic |
1706 |
50.69% |
28.85% |
19.71% |
9.26% |
5.37% |
1.75% |
0.45% |
| 49 |
Borna Coric |
1711 |
73.89% |
54.78% |
42.03% |
25.34% |
12.13% |
4.01% |
1.05% |
| 50 |
Steve Darcis |
1530 |
26.11% |
13.23% |
7.14% |
2.65% |
0.69% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 51 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1469 |
37.30% |
9.49% |
4.29% |
1.28% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1559 |
62.70% |
22.50% |
13.05% |
5.32% |
1.55% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
| 53 |
Laslo Djere |
1490 |
55.88% |
25.23% |
8.06% |
2.61% |
0.58% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 54 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1449 |
44.12% |
17.38% |
4.75% |
1.32% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1520 |
48.99% |
27.87% |
9.92% |
3.57% |
0.90% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 56 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1527 |
51.01% |
29.53% |
10.77% |
3.96% |
1.03% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 57 |
Lucas Pouille |
1579 |
56.37% |
36.52% |
14.70% |
6.98% |
2.20% |
0.45% |
0.07% |
| 58 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1535 |
43.63% |
25.65% |
8.94% |
3.72% |
0.99% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 59 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1437 |
41.28% |
13.63% |
3.31% |
0.98% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Gleb Sakharov |
1498 |
58.72% |
24.19% |
7.41% |
2.74% |
0.63% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 61 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1468 |
46.38% |
10.30% |
4.28% |
1.42% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Mischa Zverev |
1494 |
53.62% |
13.24% |
5.96% |
2.17% |
0.49% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Benoit Paire |
1558 |
25.54% |
15.52% |
8.39% |
3.74% |
1.09% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 64 |
Dominic Thiem |
1744 |
74.46% |
60.94% |
47.00% |
32.19% |
16.80% |
6.18% |
1.83% |
| 65 |
Marin Cilic |
1774 |
78.88% |
64.55% |
49.81% |
26.94% |
11.15% |
4.13% |
1.73% |
| 66 |
Bernard Tomic |
1545 |
21.12% |
11.57% |
5.68% |
1.46% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 67 |
Andrey Rublev |
1532 |
56.97% |
14.75% |
6.99% |
1.70% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 68 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1483 |
43.03% |
9.12% |
3.73% |
0.74% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Michael Mmoh |
1471 |
55.94% |
19.14% |
4.73% |
0.89% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Radu Albot |
1430 |
44.06% |
12.88% |
2.69% |
0.42% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 71 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1489 |
30.53% |
16.84% |
4.46% |
0.91% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 72 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1632 |
69.47% |
51.15% |
21.91% |
7.78% |
2.08% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
| 73 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1742 |
38.18% |
28.83% |
17.23% |
10.25% |
3.88% |
1.30% |
0.49% |
| 74 |
Andy Murray |
1825 |
61.82% |
51.46% |
36.02% |
25.04% |
11.87% |
5.10% |
2.47% |
| 75 |
Federico Delbonis |
1490 |
37.88% |
5.72% |
1.60% |
0.46% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
John Millman |
1576 |
62.12% |
13.99% |
5.32% |
2.04% |
0.45% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 77 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1565 |
52.51% |
16.83% |
4.59% |
1.70% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 78 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1547 |
47.49% |
14.27% |
3.64% |
1.27% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 79 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1542 |
23.17% |
11.09% |
2.76% |
0.95% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 80 |
Karen Khachanov |
1750 |
76.83% |
57.82% |
28.84% |
17.45% |
6.76% |
2.33% |
0.91% |
| 81 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1671 |
69.01% |
51.46% |
34.06% |
9.26% |
3.77% |
1.00% |
0.30% |
| 82 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1532 |
30.99% |
17.61% |
8.41% |
1.36% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 83 |
Victor Troicki |
1492 |
52.48% |
16.74% |
7.10% |
0.97% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1475 |
47.52% |
14.18% |
5.69% |
0.73% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1459 |
47.62% |
16.10% |
5.32% |
0.63% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1475 |
52.38% |
18.79% |
6.59% |
0.84% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 87 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1461 |
27.94% |
13.72% |
4.57% |
0.55% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1626 |
72.06% |
51.39% |
28.25% |
6.56% |
2.29% |
0.51% |
0.13% |
| 89 |
Gael Monfils |
1663 |
66.01% |
41.35% |
9.63% |
5.76% |
2.29% |
0.59% |
0.17% |
| 90 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1547 |
33.99% |
15.76% |
2.39% |
1.06% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Cameron Norrie |
1581 |
52.45% |
23.08% |
3.98% |
1.94% |
0.58% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 92 |
Taylor Fritz |
1564 |
47.55% |
19.81% |
3.20% |
1.49% |
0.41% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 93 |
Tatsuma Ito |
1450 |
37.69% |
2.96% |
0.87% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Daniel Evans |
1537 |
62.31% |
7.23% |
2.92% |
1.25% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
Denis Istomin |
1477 |
6.17% |
2.85% |
0.92% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Roger Federer |
1949 |
93.83% |
86.96% |
76.10% |
66.99% |
50.82% |
29.50% |
18.87% |
| 97 |
Kevin Anderson |
1804 |
82.07% |
68.76% |
53.80% |
38.70% |
14.99% |
6.71% |
3.06% |
| 98 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1540 |
17.93% |
9.58% |
4.26% |
1.60% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 99 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1547 |
61.56% |
15.01% |
6.83% |
2.64% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 100 |
Prajnesh Gunneswaran |
1466 |
38.44% |
6.65% |
2.29% |
0.66% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1594 |
73.32% |
37.22% |
12.79% |
5.73% |
1.12% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 102 |
Jordan Thompson |
1419 |
26.68% |
7.28% |
1.28% |
0.31% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 103 |
Andreas Seppi |
1585 |
48.75% |
26.76% |
8.90% |
3.88% |
0.73% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 104 |
Steve Johnson |
1593 |
51.25% |
28.74% |
9.85% |
4.40% |
0.86% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 105 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1705 |
81.23% |
57.32% |
38.02% |
19.37% |
5.55% |
1.82% |
0.61% |
| 106 |
Janko Tipsarevic |
1450 |
18.77% |
6.71% |
2.25% |
0.49% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1532 |
44.68% |
14.96% |
6.56% |
1.96% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 108 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1569 |
55.32% |
21.01% |
10.24% |
3.49% |
0.62% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 109 |
Jason Kubler |
1481 |
54.94% |
17.84% |
5.41% |
1.33% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1446 |
45.06% |
12.85% |
3.40% |
0.73% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Reilly Opelka |
1467 |
24.65% |
12.40% |
3.57% |
0.83% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 112 |
John Isner |
1661 |
75.35% |
56.91% |
30.55% |
13.88% |
3.44% |
0.97% |
0.28% |
| 113 |
Kyle Edmund |
1671 |
49.57% |
36.23% |
23.92% |
5.47% |
2.55% |
0.74% |
0.22% |
| 114 |
Tomas Berdych |
1674 |
50.43% |
37.03% |
24.58% |
5.68% |
2.67% |
0.78% |
0.24% |
| 115 |
Guillermo Garcia Lopez |
1474 |
44.19% |
10.70% |
4.24% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Robin Haase |
1515 |
55.81% |
16.04% |
7.23% |
0.92% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Marc Polmans |
1481 |
52.19% |
18.79% |
5.82% |
0.64% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Denis Kudla |
1466 |
47.81% |
16.30% |
4.76% |
0.49% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Rudolf Molleker |
1490 |
31.25% |
16.34% |
5.22% |
0.60% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 120 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1626 |
68.75% |
48.57% |
24.23% |
4.73% |
1.93% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
| 121 |
Alex De Minaur |
1638 |
70.17% |
47.33% |
8.16% |
4.37% |
1.84% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
| 122 |
Pedro Sousa |
1489 |
29.83% |
13.97% |
1.30% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Mirza Basic |
1501 |
47.24% |
17.65% |
1.73% |
0.61% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Henri Laaksonen |
1520 |
52.76% |
21.04% |
2.24% |
0.85% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 125 |
Matthew Ebden |
1512 |
38.40% |
3.09% |
1.31% |
0.48% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1594 |
61.60% |
7.13% |
3.83% |
1.82% |
0.67% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 127 |
James Duckworth |
1429 |
3.76% |
1.20% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Rafael Nadal |
1992 |
96.24% |
88.58% |
81.06% |
72.37% |
60.13% |
41.00% |
28.25% |
