2019 Australian Open Final Update

It's the final of the Australian Open, and we're about to crown the winners of the first Grand Slam of the year! But before the matches start, let's take a look at some stats I calculated for the top 150 players after the jump:

Australian Open logo. © Australian Open

Men's Rank	± ELO
1-10	4
11-20	45
21-50	69
51-100	-32
101-150	-30

Women's Rank	± ELO
1-10	74
11-20	36
21-50	-47
51-100	72
101-150	-89

Naomi Osaka was ranked outside the top 10 before the start of the tournament, so the Women's numbers will change after the final.

The winners for the Men were the 21-50 ranked players, thanks to the losing semifinalists Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lucas Pouille, while the losers were the 51-100 group, despite a good performance from Frances Tiafoe. For the Women, the best performers were the top 10 group with finalist Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova performing strongly, on the other hand, the 101-150 group did badly here, with none of them making it to round 3.

Now, my final ELO ratings and estimated percentage chances of winning:

#	Name	ELO	Win %
2	Novak Djokovic	1988	47.62%
1	Rafael Nadal	2004	52.38%

#	Name	ELO	Win %
2	Naomi Osaka	1770	44.02%
1	Petra Kvitova	1811	55.98%

What do you think? I have 2 polls running on Twitter until the finals start, and you can also comment below.

My numbers have 🇪🇸 Rafael Nadal as a 52% favourite over 🇷🇸 Novak Djokovic to win the #AusOpen title. Do you think it should be higher, lower, or have I got it right?

— Tennis ELO Rankings (@tennis_elo) January 25, 2019

My numbers have 🇨🇿 Petra Kvitova as a 56% favourite over 🇯🇵 Naomi Osaka to win the #AusOpen title. Do you think it should be higher, lower, or have I got it right?

— Tennis ELO Rankings (@tennis_elo) January 25, 2019