2019 Australian Open Predictions - Women's

The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table for percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.

Australian Open logo. © Australian Open

But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.

• Serena Williams is the favourite to win the title, with a 14.46% chance to win. Elina Svitolina is 2nd with 7.83%, Ashleigh Barty 3rd with 7.24% and Simona Halep 4th with 7.08%
• Timea Babos and Evgeniya Rodina have a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have them as the 112th and 109th best players here, but they're the 95th and 92nd most likely winners respectively.
• On the other hand, Kaia Kanepi has the toughest draw, as she's the 76th most likely winner, but she's the 55th highest ranked player
• Kaia Kanepi also has the toughest round 1 draw, as she's the 122nd most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 55th of the competitors. 
• Misaki Doi got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 56th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 121st highest ranked competitor here.

Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

#	Name	ELO	R1 %	R2 %	R3 %	R4 %	R5 %	R6 %	R7 %
1	Simona Halep	1819	82.77%	65.19%	47.40%	26.83%	17.68%	11.47%	7.08%
2	Kaia Kanepi	1547	17.23%	7.59%	2.81%	0.71%	0.22%	0.06%	0.02%
3	Sofia Kenin	1621	62.08%	18.93%	8.91%	2.92%	1.16%	0.44%	0.15%
4	Veronika Kudermetova	1535	37.92%	8.29%	2.95%	0.72%	0.21%	0.06%	0.01%
5	Alize Cornet	1579	62.86%	22.56%	6.82%	1.94%	0.67%	0.22%	0.06%
6	Lara Arruabarrena	1488	37.14%	9.27%	1.96%	0.39%	0.10%	0.02%	0.00%
7	Venus Williams	1711	61.05%	43.93%	20.31%	8.78%	4.54%	2.29%	1.07%
8	Mihaela Buzarnescu	1633	38.95%	24.24%	8.84%	3.02%	1.25%	0.49%	0.18%
9	Carla Suarez Navarro	1638	68.92%	44.04%	13.73%	5.30%	2.22%	0.90%	0.33%
10	Clara Burel	1500	31.08%	13.79%	2.58%	0.60%	0.15%	0.04%	0.01%
11	Samantha Stosur	1533	48.23%	19.92%	4.25%	1.12%	0.32%	0.09%	0.02%
12	Dayana Yastremska	1545	51.77%	22.24%	4.97%	1.38%	0.42%	0.12%	0.03%
13	Eugenie Bouchard	1518	46.35%	7.63%	3.19%	0.79%	0.22%	0.06%	0.01%
14	Peng Shuai	1544	53.65%	9.82%	4.44%	1.22%	0.37%	0.11%	0.03%
15	Tatjana Maria	1445	8.50%	3.21%	1.04%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%	0.00%
16	Serena Williams	1858	91.50%	79.34%	65.80%	44.07%	31.10%	21.65%	14.46%
17	Daria Kasatkina	1690	62.36%	49.16%	27.49%	13.49%	5.10%	2.42%	1.06%
18	Timea Bacsinszky	1603	37.64%	26.07%	11.40%	4.33%	1.20%	0.43%	0.14%
19	Natalia Vikhlyantseva	1438	44.19%	9.90%	2.35%	0.49%	0.07%	0.01%	0.00%
20	Varvara Lepchenko	1479	55.81%	14.87%	4.18%	1.02%	0.17%	0.04%	0.01%
21	Johanna Konta	1651	61.80%	31.16%	17.19%	7.57%	2.51%	1.06%	0.41%
22	Ajla Tomljanovic	1568	38.20%	15.02%	6.61%	2.24%	0.54%	0.17%	0.05%
23	Zheng Saisai	1478	22.40%	6.93%	2.27%	0.55%	0.09%	0.02%	0.00%
24	Garbine Muguruza	1694	77.60%	46.89%	28.51%	14.12%	5.41%	2.59%	1.15%
25	Camila Giorgi	1671	74.29%	54.65%	24.89%	13.24%	4.70%	2.11%	0.87%
26	Dalila Jakupovic	1487	25.71%	12.62%	3.21%	0.93%	0.16%	0.04%	0.01%
27	Iga Swiatek	1500	52.00%	17.44%	4.65%	1.42%	0.26%	0.06%	0.01%
28	Ana Bogdan	1486	48.00%	15.30%	3.88%	1.12%	0.19%	0.04%	0.01%
29	Madison Brengle	1423	45.61%	7.11%	2.05%	0.46%	0.06%	0.01%	0.00%
30	Misaki Doi	1453	54.39%	9.71%	3.14%	0.79%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%
31	Karolina Muchova	1510	17.03%	10.22%	4.02%	1.27%	0.24%	0.06%	0.01%
32	Karolina Pliskova	1785	82.97%	72.97%	54.17%	36.96%	18.51%	11.18%	6.39%
33	Naomi Osaka	1719	77.79%	54.06%	32.71%	19.12%	9.87%	4.23%	2.03%
34	Magda Linette	1501	22.21%	8.90%	2.79%	0.84%	0.21%	0.04%	0.01%
35	Tamara Zidansek	1495	33.70%	9.32%	2.84%	0.84%	0.20%	0.04%	0.01%
36	Daria Gavrilova	1612	66.30%	27.72%	12.69%	5.59%	2.10%	0.62%	0.21%
37	Laura Siegemund	1565	32.08%	14.89%	5.75%	2.18%	0.69%	0.17%	0.05%
38	Victoria Azarenka	1696	67.92%	43.33%	24.32%	13.45%	6.52%	2.59%	1.16%
39	Stefanie Vogele	1428	22.97%	5.04%	1.16%	0.26%	0.05%	0.01%	0.00%
40	Hsieh Su-Wei	1638	77.03%	36.74%	17.74%	8.43%	3.44%	1.12%	0.41%
41	Wang Qiang	1698	80.55%	58.34%	33.74%	18.56%	9.05%	3.62%	1.63%
42	Fiona Ferro	1451	19.45%	7.58%	2.05%	0.48%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%
43	Zarina Diyas	1502	43.08%	13.28%	4.34%	1.26%	0.31%	0.06%	0.01%
44	Aleksandra Krunic	1550	56.92%	20.80%	8.02%	2.80%	0.84%	0.20%	0.05%
45	Bianca Andreescu	1543	58.56%	19.37%	7.62%	2.60%	0.76%	0.17%	0.04%
46	Whitney Osuigwe	1483	41.44%	10.93%	3.49%	0.94%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
47	Mona Barthel	1494	21.39%	9.95%	3.30%	0.93%	0.22%	0.04%	0.01%
48	Anastasija Sevastova	1720	78.61%	59.75%	37.45%	21.72%	11.23%	4.81%	2.31%
49	Elise Mertens	1675	73.62%	49.90%	27.26%	12.42%	6.20%	2.30%	0.96%
50	Anna Karolina Schmiedlova	1497	26.38%	11.47%	3.64%	0.91%	0.25%	0.05%	0.01%
51	Zhu Lin	1474	35.22%	10.56%	3.08%	0.70%	0.17%	0.03%	0.01%
52	Margarita Gasparyan	1580	64.78%	28.06%	11.80%	4.00%	1.48%	0.39%	0.12%
53	Pauline Parmentier	1537	50.24%	16.36%	6.62%	1.92%	0.61%	0.13%	0.03%
54	Anastasia Potapova	1535	49.76%	16.10%	6.48%	1.87%	0.59%	0.13%	0.03%
55	Destanee Aiava	1477	19.95%	8.28%	2.72%	0.63%	0.16%	0.03%	0.01%
56	Madison Keys	1718	80.05%	59.26%	38.41%	19.65%	10.99%	4.69%	2.24%
57	Dominika Cibulkova	1680	67.44%	51.75%	23.10%	12.65%	6.41%	2.42%	1.03%
58	Zhang Shuai	1554	32.56%	20.03%	6.03%	2.28%	0.77%	0.18%	0.05%
59	Kristyna Pliskova	1492	56.65%	17.27%	4.16%	1.26%	0.33%	0.06%	0.01%
60	Anna Blinkova	1446	43.35%	10.95%	2.20%	0.55%	0.12%	0.02%	0.00%
61	Viktoria Kuzmova	1517	57.22%	12.62%	4.97%	1.65%	0.48%	0.10%	0.02%
62	Kateryna Kozlova	1466	42.78%	7.67%	2.54%	0.69%	0.17%	0.03%	0.00%
63	Viktorija Golubic	1453	12.33%	5.43%	1.71%	0.44%	0.10%	0.02%	0.00%
64	Elina Svitolina	1794	87.67%	74.28%	55.29%	38.37%	25.34%	13.40%	7.83%
65	Petra Kvitova	1779	80.35%	65.06%	49.06%	30.85%	17.59%	10.77%	5.63%
66	Magdalena Rybarikova	1535	19.65%	10.05%	4.33%	1.35%	0.36%	0.10%	0.02%
67	Irina-Camelia Begu	1497	42.57%	9.35%	3.54%	0.96%	0.22%	0.05%	0.01%
68	Andrea Petkovic	1549	57.43%	15.55%	7.00%	2.30%	0.64%	0.20%	0.05%
69	Belinda Bencic	1573	49.79%	23.74%	8.25%	2.95%	0.90%	0.30%	0.08%
70	Katerina Siniakova	1574	50.21%	24.05%	8.40%	3.02%	0.92%	0.31%	0.08%
71	Yulia Putintseva	1543	39.20%	17.86%	5.59%	1.80%	0.49%	0.15%	0.03%
72	Barbora Strycova	1619	60.80%	34.35%	13.83%	5.76%	2.07%	0.81%	0.25%
73	Lesia Tsurenko	1662	72.19%	48.33%	21.54%	10.44%	4.31%	1.95%	0.71%
74	Ekaterina Alexandrova	1496	27.81%	12.24%	3.06%	0.86%	0.19%	0.05%	0.01%
75	Monica Niculescu	1499	40.68%	13.99%	3.55%	1.01%	0.23%	0.06%	0.01%
76	Amanda Anisimova	1565	59.32%	25.45%	8.27%	2.99%	0.88%	0.29%	0.07%
77	Katie Boulter	1502	34.03%	7.86%	2.95%	0.85%	0.20%	0.05%	0.01%
78	Ekaterina Makarova	1617	65.97%	23.21%	12.34%	5.27%	1.88%	0.74%	0.23%
79	Anna Kalinskaya	1420	11.92%	3.46%	0.95%	0.20%	0.03%	0.01%	0.00%
80	Aryna Sabalenka	1767	88.08%	65.47%	47.33%	29.39%	16.28%	9.70%	4.90%
81	Ashleigh Barty	1790	85.62%	71.79%	57.10%	35.16%	21.55%	13.49%	7.24%
82	Luksika Kumkhum	1480	14.38%	6.71%	2.72%	0.64%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%
83	Ellen Perez	1486	45.50%	9.11%	3.77%	0.91%	0.21%	0.05%	0.01%
84	Wang Yafan	1518	54.50%	12.40%	5.67%	1.54%	0.41%	0.11%	0.02%
85	Astra Sharma	1500	55.31%	21.38%	5.46%	1.39%	0.35%	0.09%	0.02%
86	Priscilla Hon	1463	44.69%	15.10%	3.35%	0.73%	0.16%	0.03%	0.01%
87	Maria Sakkari	1531	38.48%	21.85%	6.26%	1.79%	0.51%	0.14%	0.03%
88	Jelena Ostapenko	1613	61.52%	41.67%	15.66%	5.99%	2.27%	0.87%	0.27%
89	Maria Sharapova	1741	82.24%	64.72%	37.72%	21.47%	11.79%	6.61%	3.11%
90	Harriet Dart	1475	17.76%	7.89%	2.05%	0.52%	0.12%	0.03%	0.00%
91	Sorana Cirstea	1528	54.39%	15.69%	4.95%	1.53%	0.43%	0.12%	0.03%
92	Rebecca Peterson	1497	45.61%	11.70%	3.30%	0.91%	0.23%	0.06%	0.01%
93	Vera Lapko	1546	56.87%	16.37%	5.81%	1.91%	0.57%	0.17%	0.04%
94	Johanna Larsson	1498	43.13%	10.29%	3.08%	0.85%	0.21%	0.05%	0.01%
95	Alison Van Uytvanck	1512	19.35%	9.32%	2.94%	0.86%	0.23%	0.06%	0.01%
96	Caroline Wozniacki	1760	80.65%	64.02%	40.14%	23.78%	13.65%	8.00%	3.97%
97	Sloane Stephens	1712	80.21%	62.21%	45.27%	25.89%	13.42%	6.22%	2.68%
98	Taylor Townsend	1469	19.79%	9.12%	3.67%	0.94%	0.21%	0.04%	0.01%
99	Ons Jabeur	1513	55.68%	17.02%	7.91%	2.42%	0.65%	0.15%	0.03%
100	Timea Babos	1474	44.32%	11.65%	4.77%	1.24%	0.29%	0.05%	0.01%
101	Marketa Vondrousova	1540	59.20%	28.79%	11.06%	3.74%	1.12%	0.28%	0.06%
102	Evgeniya Rodina	1475	40.80%	16.19%	4.98%	1.31%	0.30%	0.06%	0.01%
103	Heather Watson	1480	35.12%	15.89%	4.98%	1.33%	0.31%	0.06%	0.01%
104	Petra Martic	1587	64.88%	39.12%	17.36%	6.93%	2.45%	0.74%	0.20%
105	Anett Kontaveit	1671	75.35%	44.09%	22.32%	12.89%	5.96%	2.43%	0.91%
106	Sara Sorribes Tormo	1476	24.65%	7.89%	2.03%	0.66%	0.15%	0.03%	0.01%
107	Kirsten Flipkens	1547	36.24%	14.35%	4.88%	2.02%	0.62%	0.16%	0.04%
108	Aliaksandra Sasnovich	1645	63.76%	33.67%	15.86%	8.62%	3.69%	1.38%	0.48%
109	Monica Puig	1605	46.90%	18.14%	8.44%	4.14%	1.56%	0.51%	0.15%
110	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova	1627	53.10%	22.06%	10.93%	5.67%	2.29%	0.80%	0.26%
111	Alison Riske	1576	28.91%	12.79%	5.45%	2.46%	0.84%	0.24%	0.06%
112	Kiki Bertens	1733	71.09%	47.00%	30.09%	19.74%	10.78%	5.31%	2.43%
113	Julia Gorges	1733	77.65%	63.21%	39.82%	23.34%	14.08%	6.93%	3.18%
114	Danielle Collins	1517	22.35%	12.47%	4.43%	1.39%	0.44%	0.10%	0.02%
115	Ysaline Bonaventure	1463	46.40%	10.67%	3.13%	0.80%	0.21%	0.04%	0.01%
116	Sachia Vickery	1488	53.60%	13.66%	4.39%	1.24%	0.35%	0.07%	0.01%
117	Bethanie Mattek-Sands	1458	43.76%	10.62%	2.92%	0.74%	0.18%	0.03%	0.01%
118	Zoe Hives	1502	56.24%	16.21%	5.22%	1.56%	0.47%	0.10%	0.02%
119	Jessika Ponchet	1489	21.31%	10.84%	3.34%	0.95%	0.27%	0.05%	0.01%
120	Caroline Garcia	1716	78.69%	62.34%	36.75%	20.75%	12.04%	5.65%	2.46%
121	Donna Vekic	1637	66.80%	47.17%	20.71%	9.36%	4.42%	1.61%	0.54%
122	Kristina Mladenovic	1515	33.20%	18.09%	5.36%	1.62%	0.51%	0.12%	0.02%
123	Paula Badosa Gibert	1456	42.93%	13.39%	3.17%	0.76%	0.19%	0.03%	0.01%
124	Kimberley Birrell	1505	57.07%	21.35%	6.10%	1.78%	0.54%	0.12%	0.02%
125	Beatriz Haddad Maia	1495	46.11%	10.68%	4.35%	1.22%	0.35%	0.07%	0.01%
126	Bernada Pera	1522	53.89%	13.89%	6.17%	1.91%	0.62%	0.14%	0.03%
127	Polona Hercog	1473	15.82%	7.09%	2.69%	0.69%	0.18%	0.04%	0.01%
128	Angelique Kerber	1764	84.18%	68.34%	51.45%	31.88%	20.51%	10.97%	5.50%