The 2nd week of the Australian Open started this morning, so to catch up on where I was then, it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
- Evgeny Donskoy and Filip Krajinovic had the easiest overall draws at the start of the tournament, but after Donskoy lost to Krajinovic in round 2, Krajinovic then lost in round 3. Federico Delbonis who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to John Millman in the 1st round.
- Michael Mmoh had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing in round 1 to Radu Albot. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Roberto Bautista Agut, managed to win his match against Andy Murray, and is still in the tournament..
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Rafael Nadal is the favourite for the title, with a 31.14% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 24.33%. The 3rd most likely winner is Roger Federer with 19.73%, and 4th is Alexander Zverev with 7.54%.
- Borna Coric has the easiest draw to the title relative to his ranking, as he's the 7th most likely player to win the title, but is the 10th highest ranked player in the tournament.
- Daniil Medvedev has the toughest path to the title relative to his ranking, as he's the 11th most likely winner, but is the 8th highest ranked player remaining. He also has the toughest next match, as he's the 14th most likely player to advance.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Grigor Dimitrov who's more likely than expected to advance, as he's the 5th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while being the 11th highest ranked player still in the tournament.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1975 |
78.49% |
58.36% |
44.00% |
24.33% |
| 2 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1750 |
21.51% |
9.80% |
4.59% |
1.25% |
| 3 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1651 |
26.50% |
4.85% |
1.64% |
0.30% |
| 4 |
Kei Nishikori |
1828 |
73.50% |
26.99% |
15.53% |
5.60% |
| 5 |
Alexander Zverev |
1844 |
65.62% |
46.47% |
19.81% |
7.54% |
| 6 |
Milos Raonic |
1732 |
34.38% |
19.37% |
5.62% |
1.42% |
| 7 |
Borna Coric |
1727 |
67.31% |
26.30% |
7.49% |
1.85% |
| 8 |
Lucas Pouille |
1602 |
32.69% |
7.86% |
1.32% |
0.19% |
| 9 |
Marin Cilic |
1787 |
52.56% |
17.92% |
6.09% |
2.35% |
| 10 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1770 |
47.44% |
15.18% |
4.86% |
1.77% |
| 11 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1691 |
17.98% |
6.76% |
1.64% |
0.45% |
| 12 |
Roger Federer |
1955 |
82.02% |
60.14% |
32.62% |
19.73% |
| 13 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1582 |
31.41% |
3.87% |
0.65% |
0.11% |
| 14 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1718 |
68.59% |
15.26% |
4.51% |
1.36% |
| 15 |
Tomas Berdych |
1698 |
15.23% |
8.09% |
2.22% |
0.62% |
| 16 |
Rafael Nadal |
1996 |
84.77% |
72.78% |
47.41% |
31.14% |
