The 2nd week of the Australian Open started this morning, so to catch up on where I was then, it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
- Timea Babos and Evgeniya Rodina had the easiest overall draws at the start of the tournament, but Rodina lost in round 1 to Marketa Vondrousova, and Babos lost to Sloane Stephens in round 2. Kaia Kanepi, who had the toughest overall draw and toughest 1st round match, lost as expected to Simona Halep in the 1st round.
- Misaki Doi had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing in round 1 to Madison Brengle.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Serena Williams is the favourite for the title, with a 14.36% chance of winning the whole thing, with Petra Kvitova 2nd at 11.05%. The 3rd most likely winner is Angelique Kerber with 10.89%, and 4th is Simona Halep with 9.85%.
- Petra Kvitova and Angelique Kerber have the easiest draw to the title relative to his ranking, as they're the 2nd and 3rd most likely players to win the title, but are the 6th and 7th highest ranked players in the tournament.
- Elina Svitolina has the toughest path to the title relative to her ranking, as she's the 6th most likely winner, but is the 3rd highest ranked player remaining.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Sloane Stephens who's more likely than expected to advance, as she's the 5th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while being the 12th highest ranked player still in the tournament.
- And Simona Halep has the toughest next match relative to her ranking, as she's the 10th most likely to advance, but is the 2nd highest ranked player competing.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
| 1 |
Simona Halep |
1835 |
45.58% |
27.17% |
16.40% |
9.85% |
| 2 |
Serena Williams |
1865 |
54.42% |
34.70% |
22.38% |
14.36% |
| 3 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1715 |
38.30% |
12.00% |
5.22% |
2.26% |
| 4 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1798 |
61.70% |
26.13% |
14.43% |
7.93% |
| 5 |
Naomi Osaka |
1736 |
49.60% |
21.91% |
8.35% |
3.86% |
| 6 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1739 |
50.40% |
22.46% |
8.65% |
4.03% |
| 7 |
Madison Keys |
1736 |
40.30% |
20.08% |
7.66% |
3.55% |
| 8 |
Elina Svitolina |
1804 |
59.70% |
35.55% |
16.91% |
9.45% |
| 9 |
Petra Kvitova |
1792 |
75.02% |
38.53% |
22.69% |
11.05% |
| 10 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1601 |
24.98% |
6.51% |
2.15% |
0.52% |
| 11 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1800 |
55.82% |
32.04% |
19.24% |
9.60% |
| 12 |
Maria Sharapova |
1760 |
44.18% |
22.92% |
12.49% |
5.52% |
| 13 |
Sloane Stephens |
1727 |
59.60% |
29.63% |
12.79% |
5.08% |
| 14 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1659 |
40.40% |
16.45% |
5.62% |
1.74% |
| 15 |
Danielle Collins |
1556 |
22.12% |
6.77% |
1.52% |
0.30% |
| 16 |
Angelique Kerber |
1775 |
77.88% |
47.15% |
23.51% |
10.89% |
