The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Men's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
 |
| Wimbledon Logo, © Wimbledon Championships |
- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 26.28% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 25.26%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 24.67% and Dominic Thiem 4th with 3.61%
- Reilly Opelka has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 70th most likely winner, while he is only the 80th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Jordan Thompson has a tough draw. He is the 78th most likely winner, but he is the 59th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Philipp Kohlschreiber, as he's the 126th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 36th of the competitors.
- Denis Kudla got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 67th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 118th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1976 |
89.07% |
84.77% |
77.99% |
67.42% |
55.34% |
45.21% |
25.26% |
| 2 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1611 |
10.93% |
7.73% |
4.54% |
2.05% |
0.78% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
| 3 |
Denis Kudla |
1452 |
48.51% |
3.54% |
1.30% |
0.33% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Malek Jaziri |
1463 |
51.49% |
3.96% |
1.50% |
0.40% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 5 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1477 |
37.92% |
14.53% |
1.59% |
0.45% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 6 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1562 |
62.08% |
31.30% |
4.81% |
1.86% |
0.59% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 7 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1541 |
45.15% |
23.27% |
3.29% |
1.18% |
0.35% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 8 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1575 |
54.85% |
30.89% |
4.98% |
2.00% |
0.67% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
| 9 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1663 |
75.80% |
43.68% |
24.11% |
6.13% |
2.75% |
1.21% |
0.25% |
| 10 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1465 |
24.20% |
7.65% |
2.28% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1653 |
75.26% |
41.29% |
22.22% |
5.46% |
2.37% |
1.01% |
0.20% |
| 12 |
Corentin Moutet |
1460 |
24.74% |
7.38% |
2.16% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1561 |
67.22% |
25.49% |
10.33% |
1.84% |
0.58% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 14 |
Marcel Granollers |
1437 |
32.78% |
7.84% |
2.00% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Ugo Humbert |
1461 |
20.36% |
8.50% |
2.39% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Gael Monfils |
1698 |
79.64% |
58.18% |
34.50% |
9.81% |
4.86% |
2.37% |
0.55% |
| 17 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1736 |
85.86% |
62.78% |
39.50% |
22.54% |
7.75% |
4.18% |
1.13% |
| 18 |
Paolo Lorenzi |
1423 |
14.14% |
4.54% |
1.06% |
0.21% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1599 |
68.32% |
25.43% |
11.30% |
4.43% |
0.96% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
| 20 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1466 |
31.68% |
7.25% |
2.02% |
0.49% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1560 |
46.34% |
17.06% |
6.08% |
2.09% |
0.39% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 22 |
Martin Klizan |
1585 |
53.66% |
21.46% |
8.32% |
3.11% |
0.64% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
| 23 |
Bradley Klahn |
1432 |
17.32% |
5.33% |
1.17% |
0.24% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
David Goffin |
1704 |
82.68% |
56.16% |
30.57% |
16.14% |
5.01% |
2.48% |
0.59% |
| 25 |
Kyle Edmund |
1623 |
64.50% |
35.43% |
14.48% |
6.18% |
1.46% |
0.56% |
0.10% |
| 26 |
Jaume Munar |
1519 |
35.50% |
14.43% |
4.21% |
1.25% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 27 |
Kamil Majchrzak |
1487 |
30.48% |
11.09% |
2.88% |
0.75% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1631 |
69.52% |
39.05% |
16.30% |
7.12% |
1.73% |
0.68% |
0.12% |
| 29 |
Andrea Arnaboldi |
1472 |
45.69% |
9.29% |
3.08% |
0.76% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1502 |
54.31% |
12.46% |
4.61% |
1.28% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1446 |
13.33% |
5.85% |
1.76% |
0.39% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1771 |
86.67% |
72.40% |
52.69% |
33.03% |
12.57% |
7.37% |
2.25% |
| 33 |
Kevin Anderson |
1784 |
71.46% |
58.66% |
45.96% |
29.87% |
19.21% |
7.94% |
2.54% |
| 34 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1625 |
28.54% |
18.52% |
11.01% |
4.84% |
2.08% |
0.51% |
0.09% |
| 35 |
Janko Tipsarevic |
1457 |
36.81% |
6.36% |
2.30% |
0.56% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1551 |
63.19% |
16.46% |
8.08% |
2.80% |
0.94% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 37 |
Andreas Seppi |
1505 |
41.03% |
17.56% |
4.69% |
1.37% |
0.39% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 38 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1568 |
58.97% |
30.37% |
10.22% |
3.75% |
1.33% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
| 39 |
Marius Copil |
1456 |
30.42% |
11.56% |
2.55% |
0.62% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 40 |
Guido Pella |
1600 |
69.58% |
40.50% |
15.18% |
6.18% |
2.45% |
0.54% |
0.08% |
| 41 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1716 |
82.45% |
64.98% |
38.94% |
21.81% |
12.06% |
4.04% |
1.01% |
| 42 |
Ruben Bemelmans |
1447 |
17.55% |
7.78% |
2.10% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe |
1461 |
43.59% |
10.74% |
3.06% |
0.77% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Reilly Opelka |
1506 |
56.41% |
16.50% |
5.53% |
1.65% |
0.47% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 45 |
Jozef Kovalik |
1467 |
44.52% |
11.03% |
3.25% |
0.83% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Robin Haase |
1505 |
55.48% |
15.93% |
5.37% |
1.60% |
0.45% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Prajnesh Gunneswaran |
1460 |
18.30% |
8.42% |
2.41% |
0.60% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Milos Raonic |
1720 |
81.70% |
64.63% |
39.34% |
22.25% |
12.43% |
4.23% |
1.07% |
| 49 |
Karen Khachanov |
1687 |
75.58% |
49.93% |
28.05% |
15.39% |
7.48% |
2.28% |
0.51% |
| 50 |
Kwon Soon-Woo |
1491 |
24.42% |
9.51% |
3.03% |
0.90% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Marcos Giron |
1520 |
38.53% |
13.16% |
4.63% |
1.54% |
0.43% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 52 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1601 |
61.47% |
27.41% |
12.37% |
5.38% |
2.01% |
0.45% |
0.07% |
| 53 |
Steve Darcis |
1491 |
57.54% |
15.40% |
5.01% |
1.50% |
0.37% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Mischa Zverev |
1439 |
42.46% |
9.16% |
2.42% |
0.59% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1496 |
21.20% |
11.43% |
3.79% |
1.15% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1725 |
78.80% |
64.01% |
40.71% |
24.32% |
13.04% |
4.50% |
1.16% |
| 57 |
Benoit Paire |
1617 |
60.30% |
38.01% |
16.05% |
7.16% |
2.81% |
0.67% |
0.11% |
| 58 |
Juan Ignacio Londero |
1544 |
39.70% |
21.00% |
6.98% |
2.46% |
0.75% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 59 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1508 |
45.78% |
17.76% |
5.17% |
1.60% |
0.42% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1538 |
54.22% |
23.23% |
7.53% |
2.59% |
0.77% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 61 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1588 |
58.26% |
20.06% |
10.70% |
4.36% |
1.55% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
| 62 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1530 |
41.74% |
11.64% |
5.26% |
1.76% |
0.51% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Jiri Vesely |
1495 |
18.50% |
7.45% |
3.00% |
0.88% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 64 |
Alexander Zverev |
1752 |
81.50% |
60.86% |
45.31% |
28.42% |
16.30% |
6.14% |
1.76% |
| 65 |
Dominic Thiem |
1826 |
76.87% |
61.39% |
52.41% |
39.99% |
16.53% |
7.39% |
3.61% |
| 66 |
Sam Querrey |
1617 |
23.13% |
12.63% |
8.07% |
4.10% |
0.88% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| 67 |
Christian Garin |
1611 |
59.18% |
16.96% |
10.70% |
5.35% |
1.12% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
| 68 |
Andrey Rublev |
1547 |
40.82% |
9.01% |
4.89% |
2.02% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 69 |
Hugo Dellien |
1512 |
50.64% |
24.95% |
5.81% |
2.14% |
0.30% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 70 |
John Millman |
1507 |
49.36% |
24.02% |
5.49% |
1.99% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1445 |
34.80% |
14.23% |
2.50% |
0.72% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 72 |
Laslo Djere |
1555 |
65.20% |
36.80% |
10.14% |
4.30% |
0.72% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 73 |
Gilles Simon |
1597 |
66.12% |
43.78% |
19.52% |
7.28% |
1.44% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
| 74 |
Salvatore Caruso |
1481 |
33.88% |
16.98% |
5.08% |
1.26% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Yasutaka Uchimaya |
1495 |
54.95% |
22.70% |
7.18% |
1.88% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1461 |
45.05% |
16.54% |
4.57% |
1.05% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1582 |
63.30% |
24.20% |
13.81% |
4.92% |
0.92% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 78 |
Dennis Novak |
1488 |
36.70% |
9.84% |
4.32% |
1.10% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1560 |
29.28% |
15.14% |
8.17% |
2.70% |
0.46% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 80 |
Fabio Fognini |
1713 |
70.72% |
50.82% |
37.34% |
19.21% |
5.70% |
1.82% |
0.64% |
| 81 |
Marin Cilic |
1705 |
67.81% |
51.78% |
36.67% |
9.34% |
4.75% |
1.48% |
0.50% |
| 82 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1576 |
32.19% |
19.49% |
10.51% |
1.64% |
0.57% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 83 |
Joao Sousa |
1509 |
52.39% |
15.52% |
6.92% |
0.81% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 84 |
Paul Jubb |
1493 |
47.61% |
13.20% |
5.58% |
0.61% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 85 |
Federico Delbonis |
1497 |
41.42% |
18.22% |
6.15% |
0.68% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Daniel Evans |
1557 |
58.58% |
30.52% |
12.62% |
1.82% |
0.59% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 87 |
James Ward |
1384 |
23.66% |
7.10% |
1.53% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1587 |
76.34% |
44.16% |
20.03% |
3.27% |
1.18% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 89 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1593 |
66.54% |
28.78% |
3.94% |
1.89% |
0.70% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 90 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1473 |
33.46% |
9.50% |
0.76% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Bernard Tomic |
1507 |
26.13% |
11.41% |
1.07% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 92 |
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga |
1688 |
73.87% |
50.31% |
10.19% |
6.21% |
3.02% |
0.88% |
0.29% |
| 93 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1690 |
68.94% |
11.47% |
6.81% |
4.17% |
2.04% |
0.60% |
0.20% |
| 94 |
Jordan Thompson |
1551 |
31.06% |
2.83% |
1.15% |
0.49% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1439 |
3.74% |
0.89% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Rafael Nadal |
2003 |
96.26% |
84.82% |
75.85% |
68.25% |
56.83% |
37.56% |
26.28% |
| 97 |
Kei Nishikori |
1778 |
86.12% |
71.65% |
56.56% |
37.84% |
13.93% |
5.19% |
2.22% |
| 98 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1461 |
13.88% |
6.21% |
2.35% |
0.60% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Denis Istomin |
1454 |
39.66% |
7.27% |
2.68% |
0.67% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 100 |
Cameron Norrie |
1526 |
60.34% |
14.86% |
6.99% |
2.32% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 101 |
Steve Johnson |
1538 |
52.73% |
24.67% |
7.49% |
2.60% |
0.41% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 102 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1519 |
47.27% |
20.84% |
5.92% |
1.91% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1531 |
42.65% |
21.44% |
6.35% |
2.14% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 104 |
Alex De Minaur |
1582 |
57.35% |
33.04% |
11.65% |
4.71% |
0.89% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 105 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1674 |
65.75% |
34.41% |
19.73% |
9.86% |
2.61% |
0.70% |
0.21% |
| 106 |
Radu Albot |
1561 |
34.25% |
12.48% |
5.28% |
1.90% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 107 |
Taylor Fritz |
1636 |
44.34% |
22.19% |
11.59% |
5.23% |
1.21% |
0.28% |
0.08% |
| 108 |
Tomas Berdych |
1676 |
55.66% |
30.92% |
17.77% |
8.91% |
2.37% |
0.63% |
0.20% |
| 109 |
Pablo Andujar |
1478 |
48.47% |
12.79% |
3.46% |
0.93% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1489 |
51.53% |
14.20% |
4.02% |
1.12% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Casper Ruud |
1570 |
31.61% |
19.64% |
7.56% |
2.80% |
0.51% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 112 |
John Isner |
1704 |
68.39% |
53.37% |
30.58% |
16.45% |
4.82% |
1.42% |
0.48% |
| 113 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1676 |
71.30% |
50.89% |
29.68% |
7.02% |
3.39% |
0.90% |
0.28% |
| 114 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1517 |
28.70% |
14.38% |
5.29% |
0.69% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Brayden Schnur |
1509 |
47.83% |
16.14% |
5.75% |
0.72% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Marcos Baghdatis |
1524 |
52.17% |
18.59% |
6.99% |
0.93% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Dominik Kopfer |
1483 |
29.25% |
9.93% |
3.45% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1636 |
70.75% |
38.33% |
21.19% |
4.36% |
1.87% |
0.44% |
0.12% |
| 119 |
Matthew Ebden |
1455 |
24.32% |
7.74% |
2.42% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 120 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1652 |
75.68% |
44.01% |
25.23% |
5.49% |
2.47% |
0.61% |
0.17% |
| 121 |
Lucas Pouille |
1581 |
40.25% |
26.09% |
3.79% |
1.68% |
0.60% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 122 |
Richard Gasquet |
1649 |
59.75% |
43.74% |
8.22% |
4.43% |
1.98% |
0.48% |
0.14% |
| 123 |
Alexander Bublik |
1494 |
56.44% |
18.35% |
1.89% |
0.62% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Gregoire Barrere |
1449 |
43.56% |
11.82% |
1.01% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Jay Clarke |
1468 |
51.28% |
3.69% |
1.29% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Noah Rubin |
1459 |
48.72% |
3.36% |
1.14% |
0.33% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Lloyd Harris |
1453 |
4.64% |
2.25% |
0.75% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Roger Federer |
1979 |
95.36% |
90.69% |
81.89% |
72.21% |
59.98% |
36.67% |
24.67% |
