The 2nd week of the French Open starts this morning, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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French Open logo, © Roland Garros
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, only 1 of them is still in. Petra Kvitova withdrew after I made my post, Karolina Pliskova lost in round 3 to Petra Martic, and Serena Williams lost in the same round to Sofia Kenin.
- Ivana Jorovic had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, but she lost in round 1 to Jennifer Brady. Jessica Pegula, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Ashleigh Barty in the 1st round.
- Dalila Jakupovic had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing in round 1 to Kurumi Nara. Ajla Tomljanovic had the toughest round 1 match and lost as expected to Simona Halep,
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Simona Halep is now the favourite for the title, with a 27.24% chance of winning the whole thing, with Ashleigh Barty 2nd at 20.58%. The 3rd most likely winner is Garbine Muguruza with 7.8%, and 4th is Johanna Konta with 7.38%.
- Petra Martic havs the easiest draw to the title relative to her ranking, as she's the 6th most likely player to win the title, but she is the 8th highest ranked player in the tournament.
- Sloane Stephens has the toughest path to the title relative to her ranking, as she's the 8th most likely winner, but is the 6th highest ranked player remaining.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Amanada Anisimova who's more likely than expected to advance, as she's the 5th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while being the 12th highest ranked player still in the tournament.
- And Sofia Kenin, Sloane Stephens and Garbine Muguruza have the toughest next match relative to their ranking, as they're 4 places worse than expected to win their round 4 matches.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
| 1 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1590 |
31.60% |
7.88% |
2.28% |
0.77% |
| 2 |
Madison Keys |
1724 |
68.40% |
28.02% |
12.58% |
6.57% |
| 3 |
Sofia Kenin |
1662 |
26.88% |
12.70% |
4.72% |
2.05% |
| 4 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1836 |
73.12% |
51.40% |
30.50% |
20.58% |
| 5 |
Simona Halep |
1841 |
83.41% |
66.27% |
40.00% |
27.24% |
| 6 |
Iga Swiatek |
1560 |
16.59% |
7.34% |
1.82% |
0.55% |
| 7 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1640 |
65.93% |
19.87% |
6.70% |
2.71% |
| 8 |
Aliona Bolsova |
1525 |
34.07% |
6.52% |
1.39% |
0.36% |
| 9 |
Sloane Stephens |
1707 |
44.52% |
21.91% |
11.65% |
4.53% |
| 10 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1745 |
55.48% |
30.32% |
17.75% |
7.80% |
| 11 |
Donna Vekic |
1678 |
41.56% |
17.81% |
8.73% |
3.08% |
| 12 |
Johanna Konta |
1737 |
58.44% |
29.97% |
17.21% |
7.38% |
| 13 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1706 |
53.87% |
30.14% |
14.36% |
5.57% |
| 14 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1679 |
46.13% |
24.07% |
10.55% |
3.73% |
| 15 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1583 |
33.43% |
11.59% |
3.60% |
0.89% |
| 16 |
Petra Martic |
1703 |
66.57% |
34.20% |
16.15% |
6.20% |
