The 2nd week of the French Open starts this morning, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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French Open logo, © Roland Garros
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
- Matthew Ebden had the easiest overall draw at the start of the tournament, but he lost in round 1 to Gregorie Barrere. Peter Gojowczyk, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the 1st round.
- Kimmer Coppejans had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing in round 1 to fellow qualifier Yannick Maden. Pierre-Hugues Herbert had the toughest round 1 match, but unexpectedly won his match against Daniil Medvedev, before losing in round 2.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Novak Djokovic is still the favourite for the title, with a 28.03% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal 2nd at 27.63%. The 3rd most likely winner is Roger Federer with 23.26%, and 4th is Juan Martin del Potro with 6.57%.
- Relative to their rankings, all 16 players still in have a fair shot at the title, all the way from the best player being the most likely to the worst player being the least likely.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Kei Nishikori and Benoit Paire who are more likely than expected to advance, as they're the 5th and 12th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while being the 7th and 14th highest ranked player still in the tournament.
- Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem have the toughest next match relative to their ranking, as they're the 3rd and 7th most likely to win their next matches, but are the 1st and 5th best players remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1983 |
85.81% |
68.00% |
50.40% |
28.03% |
| 2 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1670 |
14.19% |
5.51% |
1.82% |
0.34% |
| 3 |
Fabio Fognini |
1722 |
43.15% |
10.26% |
4.08% |
0.95% |
| 4 |
Alexander Zverev |
1770 |
56.85% |
16.23% |
7.52% |
2.12% |
| 5 |
Dominic Thiem |
1802 |
60.06% |
30.23% |
11.08% |
3.53% |
| 6 |
Gael Monfils |
1731 |
39.94% |
16.24% |
4.65% |
1.12% |
| 7 |
Karen Khachanov |
1687 |
28.90% |
10.97% |
2.66% |
0.53% |
| 8 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1844 |
71.10% |
42.57% |
17.79% |
6.57% |
| 9 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1802 |
61.94% |
20.09% |
6.99% |
2.72% |
| 10 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1717 |
38.06% |
9.04% |
2.32% |
0.67% |
| 11 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1564 |
8.94% |
2.12% |
0.29% |
0.04% |
| 12 |
Roger Federer |
1968 |
91.06% |
68.75% |
38.46% |
23.26% |
| 13 |
Kei Nishikori |
1776 |
67.93% |
18.78% |
6.27% |
2.24% |
| 14 |
Benoit Paire |
1646 |
32.07% |
5.29% |
1.06% |
0.23% |
| 15 |
Juan Ignacio Londero |
1546 |
7.52% |
1.94% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
| 16 |
Rafael Nadal |
1982 |
92.48% |
74.00% |
44.37% |
27.63% |
