The Wimbledon Championships are starting tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.
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- Ashleigh Barty is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 15.62% chance of winning the whole thing, with Karolina Pliskova next at 11.58%. The 3rd most likely is Serena Williams with 8.3% and Simona Halep 4th with 7.99%
- Marie Bouzkova has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 107th most likely winner, while she is only the 123rd highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Zheng Saisai has a tough draw. She is the 116th most likely winner, but she is the 96th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Aliaksandra Sasnovich, as she's the 117th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 44th of the competitors.
- Taylor Townsend got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 44th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 99th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
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| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1883 |
90.94% |
77.53% |
60.26% |
48.37% |
32.73% |
22.87% |
15.62% |
| 2 |
Zheng Saisai |
1482 |
9.06% |
3.33% |
1.00% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1597 |
56.34% |
11.62% |
5.07% |
2.30% |
0.71% |
0.23% |
0.07% |
| 4 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1552 |
43.66% |
7.52% |
2.87% |
1.13% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 5 |
Harriet Dart |
1455 |
47.72% |
10.55% |
1.47% |
0.40% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 6 |
Christina McHale |
1471 |
52.28% |
12.35% |
1.84% |
0.54% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1528 |
23.42% |
13.87% |
2.63% |
0.95% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 8 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1734 |
76.58% |
63.24% |
24.86% |
15.87% |
7.63% |
3.87% |
1.88% |
| 9 |
Donna Vekic |
1677 |
64.44% |
49.21% |
27.90% |
9.67% |
3.92% |
1.68% |
0.69% |
| 10 |
Alison Riske |
1573 |
35.56% |
22.79% |
9.70% |
2.32% |
0.65% |
0.20% |
0.06% |
| 11 |
Lesley Kerkhove |
1468 |
48.67% |
13.37% |
3.92% |
0.61% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 12 |
Ivana Jorovic |
1477 |
51.33% |
14.63% |
4.45% |
0.72% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Stefanie Vogele |
1447 |
32.24% |
7.38% |
2.27% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1577 |
67.76% |
25.84% |
12.21% |
2.95% |
0.84% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
| 15 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1598 |
35.94% |
21.07% |
10.56% |
2.77% |
0.85% |
0.28% |
0.09% |
| 16 |
Belinda Bencic |
1698 |
64.06% |
45.71% |
28.99% |
10.78% |
4.67% |
2.14% |
0.94% |
| 17 |
Serena Williams |
1820 |
87.67% |
76.50% |
60.20% |
39.37% |
22.12% |
13.75% |
8.30% |
| 18 |
Giulia Gatto-Monticone |
1480 |
12.33% |
6.05% |
2.24% |
0.52% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Kaja Juvan |
1481 |
48.66% |
8.32% |
3.09% |
0.72% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1491 |
51.34% |
9.13% |
3.50% |
0.85% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Paula Badosa |
1457 |
46.76% |
13.78% |
2.65% |
0.56% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Varvara Flink |
1480 |
53.24% |
17.09% |
3.59% |
0.83% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Elena Gabriela Ruse |
1481 |
26.00% |
13.44% |
2.84% |
0.66% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Julia Gorges |
1663 |
74.00% |
55.69% |
21.88% |
9.74% |
3.53% |
1.45% |
0.57% |
| 25 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1609 |
60.18% |
23.24% |
9.50% |
3.34% |
1.01% |
0.35% |
0.11% |
| 26 |
Samantha Stosur |
1537 |
39.82% |
11.98% |
3.88% |
1.06% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.02% |
| 27 |
Maria Sharapova |
1739 |
81.09% |
57.79% |
33.27% |
17.02% |
7.79% |
4.01% |
1.98% |
| 28 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1487 |
18.91% |
6.99% |
1.88% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1533 |
56.91% |
15.43% |
5.02% |
1.36% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 30 |
Lauren Davis |
1485 |
43.09% |
9.64% |
2.61% |
0.59% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Tatjana Maria |
1504 |
18.41% |
9.00% |
2.63% |
0.64% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Angelique Kerber |
1763 |
81.59% |
65.93% |
41.22% |
22.33% |
10.89% |
5.94% |
3.13% |
| 33 |
Kiki Bertens |
1793 |
88.21% |
77.00% |
59.88% |
44.30% |
26.72% |
13.50% |
7.65% |
| 34 |
Mandy Minella |
1443 |
11.79% |
5.68% |
1.85% |
0.54% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Arina Rodionova |
1423 |
41.80% |
6.24% |
1.88% |
0.50% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Taylor Townsend |
1480 |
58.20% |
11.08% |
4.14% |
1.39% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Laura Siegemund |
1544 |
64.06% |
26.65% |
7.79% |
3.25% |
0.93% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| 38 |
Katie Swan |
1444 |
35.94% |
10.26% |
2.08% |
0.61% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 39 |
Barbora Strycova |
1597 |
48.23% |
30.02% |
10.43% |
5.11% |
1.77% |
0.46% |
0.14% |
| 40 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1609 |
51.77% |
33.06% |
11.94% |
6.04% |
2.19% |
0.60% |
0.19% |
| 41 |
Elise Mertens |
1659 |
77.65% |
53.39% |
31.81% |
14.20% |
6.04% |
2.00% |
0.77% |
| 42 |
Fiona Ferro |
1443 |
22.35% |
8.68% |
2.68% |
0.56% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1535 |
54.16% |
21.45% |
9.15% |
2.74% |
0.76% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 44 |
Monica Niculescu |
1506 |
45.84% |
16.48% |
6.39% |
1.72% |
0.42% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 45 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1536 |
52.81% |
20.80% |
8.90% |
2.67% |
0.74% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 46 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1516 |
47.19% |
17.40% |
6.99% |
1.96% |
0.50% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 47 |
Vera Lapko |
1484 |
26.68% |
11.73% |
4.23% |
1.05% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Wang Qiang |
1660 |
73.32% |
50.07% |
29.85% |
13.36% |
5.70% |
1.90% |
0.73% |
| 49 |
Sloane Stephens |
1695 |
63.81% |
46.31% |
25.33% |
12.21% |
6.21% |
2.34% |
1.01% |
| 50 |
Timea Bacsinszky |
1597 |
36.19% |
21.84% |
9.08% |
3.26% |
1.24% |
0.33% |
0.10% |
| 51 |
Wang Yafan |
1564 |
68.62% |
25.21% |
9.41% |
3.02% |
1.03% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 52 |
Tereza Martincova |
1428 |
31.38% |
6.65% |
1.48% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 53 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1565 |
50.36% |
17.04% |
7.15% |
2.31% |
0.79% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 54 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1562 |
49.64% |
16.65% |
6.93% |
2.22% |
0.75% |
0.17% |
0.05% |
| 55 |
Ana Bogdan |
1472 |
18.14% |
6.74% |
2.05% |
0.47% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Johanna Konta |
1734 |
81.86% |
59.56% |
38.58% |
20.53% |
11.49% |
4.90% |
2.38% |
| 57 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1659 |
65.29% |
49.41% |
20.21% |
10.01% |
4.62% |
1.53% |
0.59% |
| 58 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1550 |
34.71% |
21.68% |
6.16% |
2.16% |
0.70% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 59 |
Magda Linette |
1492 |
61.75% |
20.06% |
4.57% |
1.29% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Anna Kalinskaya |
1408 |
38.25% |
8.84% |
1.42% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Vitalia Diatchenko |
1428 |
29.75% |
4.26% |
1.30% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1578 |
70.25% |
18.84% |
9.34% |
3.60% |
1.29% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
| 63 |
Ons Jabeur |
1531 |
16.75% |
8.31% |
3.60% |
1.18% |
0.36% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 64 |
Petra Kvitova |
1810 |
83.25% |
68.59% |
53.38% |
36.92% |
24.19% |
12.77% |
7.52% |
| 65 |
Elina Svitolina |
1739 |
73.52% |
55.15% |
41.06% |
26.07% |
13.26% |
6.85% |
3.00% |
| 66 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1561 |
26.48% |
13.80% |
7.19% |
2.85% |
0.82% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
| 67 |
Margarita Gasparyan |
1571 |
58.61% |
19.89% |
10.64% |
4.35% |
1.31% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
| 68 |
Anna-Lena Friedsam |
1511 |
41.39% |
11.16% |
5.04% |
1.67% |
0.40% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 69 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1442 |
43.79% |
13.65% |
3.27% |
0.83% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Mona Barthel |
1485 |
56.21% |
20.62% |
5.88% |
1.77% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Bernada Pera |
1516 |
35.69% |
20.38% |
6.53% |
2.21% |
0.54% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 72 |
Maria Sakkari |
1618 |
64.31% |
45.35% |
20.39% |
9.64% |
3.42% |
1.21% |
0.35% |
| 73 |
Petra Martic |
1706 |
72.03% |
51.97% |
32.54% |
19.41% |
9.05% |
4.27% |
1.69% |
| 74 |
Jennifer Brady |
1542 |
27.97% |
14.05% |
5.69% |
2.16% |
0.58% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 75 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1555 |
54.57% |
19.51% |
8.24% |
3.27% |
0.92% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| 76 |
Jil Teichmann |
1523 |
45.43% |
14.47% |
5.50% |
1.96% |
0.49% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 77 |
Danielle Collins |
1583 |
64.96% |
28.13% |
12.35% |
5.34% |
1.67% |
0.52% |
0.13% |
| 78 |
Zarina Diyas |
1475 |
35.04% |
10.51% |
3.19% |
0.96% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 79 |
Kristie Ahn |
1462 |
22.40% |
8.64% |
2.49% |
0.71% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1678 |
77.60% |
52.72% |
29.99% |
16.78% |
7.21% |
3.13% |
1.12% |
| 81 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1721 |
82.73% |
61.75% |
41.64% |
19.74% |
11.59% |
5.70% |
2.36% |
| 82 |
Madison Brengle |
1449 |
17.27% |
6.59% |
2.14% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Karolina Muchova |
1550 |
55.49% |
18.64% |
8.43% |
2.31% |
0.83% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 84 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1511 |
44.51% |
13.02% |
5.24% |
1.24% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 85 |
Caty McNally |
1480 |
54.94% |
17.03% |
5.00% |
1.04% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 86 |
Heather Watson |
1446 |
45.06% |
12.20% |
3.14% |
0.57% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 87 |
Shelby Rogers |
1510 |
28.50% |
16.10% |
5.28% |
1.24% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 88 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1670 |
71.50% |
54.67% |
29.12% |
11.95% |
6.20% |
2.62% |
0.91% |
| 89 |
Hsieh Su-Wei |
1659 |
59.79% |
44.29% |
16.03% |
8.32% |
4.19% |
1.71% |
0.57% |
| 90 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1590 |
40.21% |
26.47% |
7.57% |
3.23% |
1.33% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
| 91 |
Dalila Jakupovic |
1444 |
42.12% |
10.75% |
1.72% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 92 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1499 |
57.88% |
18.50% |
3.73% |
1.17% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 93 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1461 |
30.38% |
4.40% |
1.46% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Monica Puig |
1605 |
69.62% |
18.08% |
9.44% |
4.21% |
1.81% |
0.61% |
0.17% |
| 95 |
Zhu Lin |
1450 |
9.87% |
3.45% |
1.10% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1834 |
90.13% |
74.07% |
58.96% |
43.48% |
31.61% |
20.38% |
11.58% |
| 97 |
Simona Halep |
1825 |
79.16% |
65.82% |
47.84% |
32.17% |
22.27% |
14.12% |
7.85% |
| 98 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1594 |
20.84% |
11.81% |
4.96% |
1.80% |
0.69% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
| 99 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1569 |
57.30% |
13.97% |
5.40% |
1.79% |
0.63% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 100 |
Jessica Pegula |
1518 |
42.70% |
8.40% |
2.70% |
0.74% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 101 |
Alize Cornet |
1578 |
31.51% |
14.45% |
4.41% |
1.52% |
0.55% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 102 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1713 |
68.49% |
44.31% |
20.63% |
10.80% |
5.90% |
2.87% |
1.16% |
| 103 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1574 |
41.94% |
15.45% |
4.65% |
1.58% |
0.57% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 104 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1631 |
58.06% |
25.79% |
9.41% |
3.87% |
1.68% |
0.63% |
0.19% |
| 105 |
Madison Keys |
1723 |
82.48% |
59.60% |
31.98% |
15.74% |
8.82% |
4.40% |
1.84% |
| 106 |
Luksika Kumkhum |
1454 |
17.52% |
6.26% |
1.31% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Polona Hercog |
1540 |
45.69% |
14.72% |
4.40% |
1.18% |
0.37% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 108 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1570 |
54.31% |
19.42% |
6.49% |
1.96% |
0.69% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
| 109 |
Venus Williams |
1751 |
80.58% |
52.72% |
33.29% |
17.60% |
10.51% |
5.64% |
2.56% |
| 110 |
Cori Gauff |
1504 |
19.42% |
6.35% |
1.98% |
0.46% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 111 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1506 |
26.75% |
6.84% |
2.15% |
0.50% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 112 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1681 |
73.25% |
34.09% |
18.40% |
8.03% |
4.03% |
1.78% |
0.65% |
| 113 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1707 |
79.07% |
57.99% |
35.21% |
19.28% |
8.90% |
4.25% |
1.68% |
| 114 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1476 |
20.93% |
8.94% |
2.76% |
0.70% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1564 |
64.37% |
23.97% |
10.02% |
3.57% |
1.01% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
| 116 |
Ysaline Bonaventure |
1461 |
35.63% |
9.10% |
2.66% |
0.63% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1532 |
53.34% |
17.57% |
6.51% |
2.06% |
0.51% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 118 |
Yanina Wickmayer |
1509 |
46.66% |
14.10% |
4.82% |
1.40% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 119 |
Zhang Shuai |
1522 |
25.53% |
12.80% |
4.59% |
1.40% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 120 |
Caroline Garcia |
1708 |
74.47% |
55.53% |
33.43% |
18.37% |
8.51% |
4.08% |
1.62% |
| 121 |
Sofia Kenin |
1684 |
72.32% |
42.58% |
22.21% |
12.08% |
5.21% |
2.33% |
0.86% |
| 122 |
Astra Sharma |
1518 |
27.68% |
9.82% |
3.05% |
0.99% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 123 |
Dayana Yastremska |
1595 |
43.28% |
19.02% |
7.69% |
3.26% |
1.04% |
0.35% |
0.09% |
| 124 |
Camila Giorgi |
1642 |
56.72% |
28.58% |
13.30% |
6.47% |
2.43% |
0.95% |
0.30% |
| 125 |
Iga Swiatek |
1547 |
65.63% |
18.89% |
7.04% |
2.55% |
0.67% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 126 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1435 |
34.37% |
6.09% |
1.46% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1616 |
31.38% |
20.29% |
9.47% |
4.27% |
1.47% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
| 128 |
Naomi Osaka |
1752 |
68.62% |
54.74% |
35.77% |
22.63% |
11.83% |
6.36% |
2.90% |
