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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 28.93% chance of winning the whole thing, with Andy Murray next at 19.92%. The 3rd most likely is Rafael Nadal with 14.37% and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4th with 4.15%
- Wildcard Alexandre Muller has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating (as he is new to the ATP Tour, he starts with an average rating of 1500). I have him as the 59th most likely winner, while he is only the 76th highest ranked player here. (Andreas Seppi has the easiest draw among regular ATP players)
- On the other hand, Guido Pella has the toughest draw. He is the 83rd most likely winner, but he is the 58th highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Andrey Kuznetsov, as he's the 127th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 40th of the competitors.
- Victor Estrella Burgos got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 44th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 94th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andy Murray | 1935 | 89.32% | 82.76% | 69.28% | 56.83% | 43.77% | 33.53% | 19.92% |
| 2 | Andrey Kuznetsov | 1566 | 10.68% | 6.43% | 2.60% | 1.00% | 0.32% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Laurent Lokoli | 1470 | 43.98% | 4.24% | 1.21% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Martin Klizan | 1512 | 56.02% | 6.56% | 2.20% | 0.70% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Marcos Baghdatis | 1571 | 54.16% | 20.10% | 3.80% | 1.48% | 0.48% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 6 | Nicolas Almagro | 1542 | 45.84% | 15.36% | 2.60% | 0.92% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Guido Pella | 1520 | 24.66% | 11.00% | 1.71% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Juan Martin del Potro | 1714 | 75.34% | 53.53% | 16.61% | 9.60% | 4.83% | 2.37% | 0.75% |
| 9 | John Isner | 1651 | 75.76% | 54.42% | 26.25% | 7.17% | 3.02% | 1.22% | 0.30% |
| 10 | Jordan Thompson | 1453 | 24.24% | 10.96% | 2.73% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Paolo Lorenzi | 1517 | 61.04% | 23.37% | 7.40% | 1.21% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Ricardas Berankis | 1439 | 38.96% | 11.26% | 2.65% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Karen Khachanov | 1548 | 60.35% | 18.47% | 8.57% | 1.59% | 0.47% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Nicolas Jarry | 1475 | 39.65% | 9.13% | 3.36% | 0.46% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1498 | 19.35% | 9.09% | 3.61% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Tomas Berdych | 1746 | 80.65% | 63.30% | 45.43% | 16.95% | 9.25% | 4.94% | 1.74% |
| 17 | Alexander Zverev | 1787 | 73.48% | 61.54% | 47.85% | 30.59% | 13.73% | 8.09% | 3.26% |
| 18 | Fernando Verdasco | 1610 | 26.52% | 17.26% | 9.76% | 4.04% | 1.02% | 0.36% | 0.08% |
| 19 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1501 | 49.71% | 10.49% | 4.36% | 1.25% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Jared Donaldson | 1503 | 50.29% | 10.71% | 4.48% | 1.29% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Damir Dzumhur | 1504 | 49.28% | 19.01% | 5.10% | 1.48% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Nicolas Kicker | 1509 | 50.72% | 19.90% | 5.44% | 1.61% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Maxime Hamou | 1480 | 29.42% | 13.59% | 3.32% | 0.88% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Pablo Cuevas | 1632 | 70.58% | 47.51% | 19.69% | 8.70% | 2.38% | 0.91% | 0.21% |
| 25 | Sam Querrey | 1625 | 62.13% | 43.69% | 17.65% | 7.68% | 2.05% | 0.76% | 0.17% |
| 26 | Chung Hyeon | 1539 | 37.87% | 22.39% | 6.83% | 2.26% | 0.43% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 27 | Ernesto Escobedo | 1492 | 55.59% | 20.07% | 5.16% | 1.44% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Denis Istomin | 1453 | 44.41% | 13.84% | 3.06% | 0.73% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Radu Albot | 1386 | 28.83% | 4.00% | 1.12% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Jeremy Chardy | 1543 | 71.17% | 18.95% | 9.15% | 3.06% | 0.60% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 31 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1455 | 13.75% | 6.05% | 2.20% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Kei Nishikori | 1774 | 86.25% | 71.00% | 54.81% | 34.26% | 14.83% | 8.48% | 3.28% |
| 33 | Stan Wawrinka | 1768 | 86.05% | 68.85% | 53.20% | 36.23% | 20.59% | 8.95% | 3.40% |
| 34 | Jozef Kovalik | 1452 | 13.95% | 5.52% | 2.07% | 0.58% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Alexandr Dolgopolov | 1548 | 57.43% | 15.95% | 8.02% | 3.16% | 0.90% | 0.18% | 0.03% |
| 36 | Carlos Berlocq | 1496 | 42.57% | 9.68% | 4.18% | 1.38% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Santiago Giraldo | 1416 | 37.46% | 11.29% | 2.18% | 0.53% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Andreas Seppi | 1505 | 62.54% | 25.72% | 7.09% | 2.42% | 0.58% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Frances Tiafoe | 1419 | 24.24% | 10.32% | 2.02% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Fabio Fognini | 1617 | 75.76% | 52.67% | 21.23% | 10.30% | 3.79% | 0.99% | 0.21% |
| 41 | Richard Gasquet | 1676 | 73.25% | 57.25% | 33.70% | 17.13% | 7.61% | 2.46% | 0.68% |
| 42 | Arthur De Greef | 1501 | 26.75% | 15.19% | 5.51% | 1.62% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Teymuraz Gabashvili | 1418 | 41.45% | 9.85% | 2.64% | 0.56% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Victor Estrella Burgos | 1478 | 58.55% | 17.71% | 5.93% | 1.61% | 0.35% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Thiago Monteiro | 1443 | 41.87% | 10.50% | 3.30% | 0.78% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Alexandre Muller | 1500 | 58.13% | 18.17% | 6.96% | 2.05% | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Dustin Brown | 1478 | 22.59% | 11.35% | 4.04% | 1.09% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Gael Monfils | 1692 | 77.41% | 59.98% | 37.91% | 20.06% | 9.34% | 3.20% | 0.93% |
| 49 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1793 | 88.47% | 72.94% | 48.03% | 33.36% | 21.67% | 10.11% | 4.15% |
| 50 | Renzo Olivo | 1439 | 11.53% | 4.43% | 0.97% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Kyle Edmund | 1552 | 61.04% | 15.42% | 5.27% | 2.02% | 0.68% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 52 | Gastao Elias | 1474 | 38.96% | 7.21% | 1.83% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Kevin Anderson | 1608 | 64.27% | 23.44% | 8.39% | 3.83% | 1.55% | 0.39% | 0.08% |
| 54 | Malek Jaziri | 1506 | 35.73% | 8.77% | 2.19% | 0.72% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1607 | 30.39% | 16.70% | 5.96% | 2.71% | 1.10% | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| 56 | Nick Kyrgios | 1751 | 69.61% | 51.08% | 27.37% | 17.63% | 10.51% | 4.34% | 1.56% |
| 57 | David Ferrer | 1612 | 55.45% | 34.63% | 15.40% | 5.35% | 2.20% | 0.56% | 0.12% |
| 58 | Donald Young | 1574 | 44.55% | 25.52% | 10.13% | 3.07% | 1.11% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 59 | Feliciano Lopez | 1556 | 62.80% | 27.90% | 10.47% | 2.96% | 1.01% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Bjorn Fratangelo | 1465 | 37.20% | 11.96% | 3.27% | 0.64% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Konstantin Kravchuk | 1409 | 33.13% | 6.14% | 1.76% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Federico Delbonis | 1531 | 66.87% | 20.13% | 8.98% | 2.30% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Ernests Gulbis | 1451 | 16.55% | 7.35% | 2.49% | 0.46% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Marin Cilic | 1732 | 83.45% | 66.37% | 47.50% | 23.91% | 13.65% | 5.32% | 1.79% |
| 65 | Milos Raonic | 1777 | 81.79% | 70.47% | 51.79% | 35.04% | 16.80% | 6.86% | 3.17% |
| 66 | Steve Darcis | 1516 | 18.21% | 10.59% | 4.31% | 1.45% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 67 | Rogerio Dutra Silva | 1431 | 43.14% | 7.22% | 2.20% | 0.53% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Mikhail Youzhny | 1479 | 56.86% | 11.72% | 4.22% | 1.24% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Marco Trungelliti | 1488 | 55.30% | 18.28% | 4.81% | 1.46% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Quentin Halys | 1451 | 44.70% | 12.91% | 2.95% | 0.78% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Guillermo Garcia-Lopez | 1399 | 17.87% | 7.10% | 1.32% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Gilles Muller | 1664 | 82.13% | 61.71% | 28.40% | 15.05% | 5.17% | 1.47% | 0.47% |
| 73 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1678 | 76.81% | 58.71% | 32.81% | 15.94% | 5.73% | 1.71% | 0.58% |
| 74 | Florian Mayer | 1470 | 23.19% | 11.51% | 3.38% | 0.82% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Taro Daniel | 1442 | 42.43% | 11.19% | 2.95% | 0.64% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Jerzy Janowicz | 1495 | 57.57% | 18.59% | 5.99% | 1.61% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Tommy Robredo | 1489 | 40.06% | 11.41% | 4.15% | 1.09% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Daniel Evans | 1559 | 59.94% | 21.87% | 9.90% | 3.34% | 0.79% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 79 | Stephane Robert | 1424 | 16.55% | 5.83% | 1.68% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1705 | 83.45% | 60.89% | 39.13% | 20.38% | 7.97% | 2.60% | 0.96% |
| 81 | Jack Sock | 1741 | 72.57% | 55.60% | 37.62% | 15.84% | 8.93% | 3.27% | 1.36% |
| 82 | Jiri Vesely | 1572 | 27.43% | 15.18% | 6.98% | 1.72% | 0.59% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 83 | Aljaz Bedene | 1523 | 46.84% | 13.06% | 5.18% | 1.06% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 84 | Ryan Harrison | 1545 | 53.16% | 16.16% | 6.86% | 1.53% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 85 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1451 | 45.84% | 11.77% | 2.94% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Tennys Sandgren | 1480 | 54.16% | 15.63% | 4.39% | 0.76% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 87 | John Millman | 1523 | 27.78% | 16.12% | 5.31% | 1.09% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1689 | 72.22% | 56.48% | 30.73% | 11.14% | 5.50% | 1.70% | 0.60% |
| 89 | Gilles Simon | 1609 | 63.21% | 36.66% | 9.17% | 3.98% | 1.54% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 90 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1515 | 36.79% | 16.59% | 2.93% | 0.93% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 91 | Victor Troicki | 1595 | 71.05% | 37.58% | 8.95% | 3.72% | 1.37% | 0.30% | 0.07% |
| 92 | Evgeny Donskoy | 1439 | 28.95% | 9.18% | 1.19% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Robin Haase | 1500 | 51.01% | 6.69% | 2.67% | 0.80% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Alex De Minaur | 1493 | 48.99% | 6.23% | 2.42% | 0.71% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Benoit Paire | 1531 | 10.79% | 5.93% | 2.61% | 0.88% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Rafael Nadal | 1898 | 89.21% | 81.16% | 70.05% | 55.12% | 41.57% | 23.15% | 14.37% |
| 97 | Dominic Thiem | 1771 | 80.29% | 65.00% | 48.08% | 31.50% | 12.26% | 5.91% | 2.69% |
| 98 | Bernard Tomic | 1527 | 19.71% | 10.09% | 4.24% | 1.47% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Simone Bolelli | 1494 | 43.70% | 9.82% | 3.69% | 1.14% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Nicolas Mahut | 1538 | 56.30% | 15.09% | 6.57% | 2.37% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 101 | Mathias Bourgue | 1502 | 39.92% | 14.67% | 4.09% | 1.30% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Borna Coric | 1573 | 60.08% | 27.78% | 9.94% | 4.01% | 0.83% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 103 | Yuichi Sugita | 1493 | 29.54% | 12.61% | 3.40% | 1.05% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Steve Johnson | 1644 | 70.46% | 44.94% | 20.00% | 9.88% | 2.61% | 0.85% | 0.25% |
| 105 | Ivo Karlovic | 1601 | 67.12% | 42.42% | 17.63% | 7.21% | 1.64% | 0.45% | 0.11% |
| 106 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1477 | 32.88% | 15.02% | 4.16% | 1.10% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Horacio Zeballos | 1509 | 50.58% | 21.66% | 6.71% | 2.01% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Adrian Mannarino | 1505 | 49.42% | 20.90% | 6.39% | 1.88% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 109 | Yen-Hsun Lu | 1470 | 53.31% | 11.99% | 4.79% | 1.23% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Sergiy Stakhovsky | 1447 | 46.69% | 9.57% | 3.53% | 0.83% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Paul-Henri Mathieu | 1434 | 14.30% | 6.63% | 2.33% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 112 | David Goffin | 1745 | 85.70% | 71.81% | 54.46% | 32.50% | 11.75% | 5.27% | 2.22% |
| 113 | Lucas Pouille | 1658 | 78.21% | 55.09% | 35.89% | 8.95% | 4.07% | 1.38% | 0.44% |
| 114 | Julien Bennetau | 1436 | 21.79% | 8.70% | 3.04% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Thomaz Bellucci | 1512 | 51.44% | 18.94% | 8.55% | 1.26% | 0.35% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Dusan Lajovic | 1502 | 48.56% | 17.28% | 7.56% | 1.07% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 117 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1500 | 48.13% | 19.62% | 7.59% | 1.07% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Daniil Medvedev | 1513 | 51.87% | 22.06% | 8.91% | 1.32% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Marius Copil | 1479 | 32.24% | 14.84% | 5.34% | 0.69% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1608 | 67.76% | 43.48% | 23.11% | 4.85% | 1.89% | 0.54% | 0.14% |
| 121 | Mischa Zverev | 1565 | 60.22% | 33.32% | 5.12% | 2.44% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 122 | Stefano Napolitano | 1493 | 39.78% | 18.00% | 2.08% | 0.79% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 123 | Andrey Rublev | 1454 | 34.55% | 13.29% | 1.31% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Diego Schwartzman | 1565 | 65.45% | 35.39% | 5.43% | 2.60% | 0.88% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 125 | Joao Sousa | 1494 | 52.88% | 4.81% | 2.11% | 0.81% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 126 | Janko Tipsarevic | 1474 | 47.12% | 3.92% | 1.61% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Marcel Granollers | 1456 | 5.30% | 2.43% | 0.94% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Novak Djokovic | 1957 | 94.70% | 88.84% | 81.40% | 72.51% | 58.68% | 41.85% | 28.93% |
