Sunday, 28 May 2017

2017 French Open Predictions - Men's

The French Open is starting this morning, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros


But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 28.93% chance of winning the whole thing, with Andy Murray next at 19.92%. The 3rd most likely is Rafael Nadal with 14.37% and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4th with 4.15%
  • Wildcard Alexandre Muller has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating (as he is new to the ATP Tour, he starts with an average rating of 1500). I have him as the 59th most likely winner, while he is only the 76th highest ranked player here. (Andreas Seppi has the easiest draw among regular ATP players)
  • On the other hand, Guido Pella has the toughest draw. He is the 83rd most likely winner, but he is the 58th highest ranked player competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Andrey Kuznetsov, as he's the 127th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 40th of the competitors. 
  • Victor Estrella Burgos got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 44th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 94th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Andy Murray 1935 89.32% 82.76% 69.28% 56.83% 43.77% 33.53% 19.92%
2 Andrey Kuznetsov 1566 10.68% 6.43% 2.60% 1.00% 0.32% 0.09% 0.02%
3 Laurent Lokoli 1470 43.98% 4.24% 1.21% 0.33% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
4 Martin Klizan 1512 56.02% 6.56% 2.20% 0.70% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
5 Marcos Baghdatis 1571 54.16% 20.10% 3.80% 1.48% 0.48% 0.15% 0.03%
6 Nicolas Almagro 1542 45.84% 15.36% 2.60% 0.92% 0.27% 0.07% 0.01%
7 Guido Pella 1520 24.66% 11.00% 1.71% 0.56% 0.15% 0.04% 0.01%
8 Juan Martin del Potro 1714 75.34% 53.53% 16.61% 9.60% 4.83% 2.37% 0.75%
9 John Isner 1651 75.76% 54.42% 26.25% 7.17% 3.02% 1.22% 0.30%
10 Jordan Thompson 1453 24.24% 10.96% 2.73% 0.34% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
11 Paolo Lorenzi 1517 61.04% 23.37% 7.40% 1.21% 0.32% 0.08% 0.01%
12 Ricardas Berankis 1439 38.96% 11.26% 2.65% 0.31% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
13 Karen Khachanov 1548 60.35% 18.47% 8.57% 1.59% 0.47% 0.13% 0.02%
14 Nicolas Jarry 1475 39.65% 9.13% 3.36% 0.46% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
15 Jan-Lennard Struff 1498 19.35% 9.09% 3.61% 0.55% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00%
16 Tomas Berdych 1746 80.65% 63.30% 45.43% 16.95% 9.25% 4.94% 1.74%
17 Alexander Zverev 1787 73.48% 61.54% 47.85% 30.59% 13.73% 8.09% 3.26%
18 Fernando Verdasco 1610 26.52% 17.26% 9.76% 4.04% 1.02% 0.36% 0.08%
19 Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1501 49.71% 10.49% 4.36% 1.25% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
20 Jared Donaldson 1503 50.29% 10.71% 4.48% 1.29% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
21 Damir Dzumhur 1504 49.28% 19.01% 5.10% 1.48% 0.24% 0.06% 0.01%
22 Nicolas Kicker 1509 50.72% 19.90% 5.44% 1.61% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
23 Maxime Hamou 1480 29.42% 13.59% 3.32% 0.88% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00%
24 Pablo Cuevas 1632 70.58% 47.51% 19.69% 8.70% 2.38% 0.91% 0.21%
25 Sam Querrey 1625 62.13% 43.69% 17.65% 7.68% 2.05% 0.76% 0.17%
26 Chung Hyeon 1539 37.87% 22.39% 6.83% 2.26% 0.43% 0.12% 0.02%
27 Ernesto Escobedo 1492 55.59% 20.07% 5.16% 1.44% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
28 Denis Istomin 1453 44.41% 13.84% 3.06% 0.73% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
29 Radu Albot 1386 28.83% 4.00% 1.12% 0.20% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
30 Jeremy Chardy 1543 71.17% 18.95% 9.15% 3.06% 0.60% 0.16% 0.03%
31 Thanasi Kokkinakis 1455 13.75% 6.05% 2.20% 0.53% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
32 Kei Nishikori 1774 86.25% 71.00% 54.81% 34.26% 14.83% 8.48% 3.28%
33 Stan Wawrinka 1768 86.05% 68.85% 53.20% 36.23% 20.59% 8.95% 3.40%
34 Jozef Kovalik 1452 13.95% 5.52% 2.07% 0.58% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
35 Alexandr Dolgopolov 1548 57.43% 15.95% 8.02% 3.16% 0.90% 0.18% 0.03%
36 Carlos Berlocq 1496 42.57% 9.68% 4.18% 1.38% 0.32% 0.05% 0.01%
37 Santiago Giraldo 1416 37.46% 11.29% 2.18% 0.53% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
38 Andreas Seppi 1505 62.54% 25.72% 7.09% 2.42% 0.58% 0.10% 0.01%
39 Frances Tiafoe 1419 24.24% 10.32% 2.02% 0.50% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
40 Fabio Fognini 1617 75.76% 52.67% 21.23% 10.30% 3.79% 0.99% 0.21%
41 Richard Gasquet 1676 73.25% 57.25% 33.70% 17.13% 7.61% 2.46% 0.68%
42 Arthur De Greef 1501 26.75% 15.19% 5.51% 1.62% 0.39% 0.06% 0.01%
43 Teymuraz Gabashvili 1418 41.45% 9.85% 2.64% 0.56% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
44 Victor Estrella Burgos 1478 58.55% 17.71% 5.93% 1.61% 0.35% 0.05% 0.01%
45 Thiago Monteiro 1443 41.87% 10.50% 3.30% 0.78% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
46 Alexandre Muller 1500 58.13% 18.17% 6.96% 2.05% 0.48% 0.08% 0.01%
47 Dustin Brown 1478 22.59% 11.35% 4.04% 1.09% 0.24% 0.03% 0.00%
48 Gael Monfils 1692 77.41% 59.98% 37.91% 20.06% 9.34% 3.20% 0.93%
49 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1793 88.47% 72.94% 48.03% 33.36% 21.67% 10.11% 4.15%
50 Renzo Olivo 1439 11.53% 4.43% 0.97% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
51 Kyle Edmund 1552 61.04% 15.42% 5.27% 2.02% 0.68% 0.14% 0.02%
52 Gastao Elias 1474 38.96% 7.21% 1.83% 0.53% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
53 Kevin Anderson 1608 64.27% 23.44% 8.39% 3.83% 1.55% 0.39% 0.08%
54 Malek Jaziri 1506 35.73% 8.77% 2.19% 0.72% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00%
55 Philipp Kohlschreiber 1607 30.39% 16.70% 5.96% 2.71% 1.10% 0.28% 0.06%
56 Nick Kyrgios 1751 69.61% 51.08% 27.37% 17.63% 10.51% 4.34% 1.56%
57 David Ferrer 1612 55.45% 34.63% 15.40% 5.35% 2.20% 0.56% 0.12%
58 Donald Young 1574 44.55% 25.52% 10.13% 3.07% 1.11% 0.24% 0.04%
59 Feliciano Lopez 1556 62.80% 27.90% 10.47% 2.96% 1.01% 0.21% 0.03%
60 Bjorn Fratangelo 1465 37.20% 11.96% 3.27% 0.64% 0.15% 0.02% 0.00%
61 Konstantin Kravchuk 1409 33.13% 6.14% 1.76% 0.27% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
62 Federico Delbonis 1531 66.87% 20.13% 8.98% 2.30% 0.72% 0.13% 0.02%
63 Ernests Gulbis 1451 16.55% 7.35% 2.49% 0.46% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
64 Marin Cilic 1732 83.45% 66.37% 47.50% 23.91% 13.65% 5.32% 1.79%
65 Milos Raonic 1777 81.79% 70.47% 51.79% 35.04% 16.80% 6.86% 3.17%
66 Steve Darcis 1516 18.21% 10.59% 4.31% 1.45% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01%
67 Rogerio Dutra Silva 1431 43.14% 7.22% 2.20% 0.53% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
68 Mikhail Youzhny 1479 56.86% 11.72% 4.22% 1.24% 0.21% 0.03% 0.00%
69 Marco Trungelliti 1488 55.30% 18.28% 4.81% 1.46% 0.26% 0.04% 0.01%
70 Quentin Halys 1451 44.70% 12.91% 2.95% 0.78% 0.12% 0.01% 0.00%
71 Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1399 17.87% 7.10% 1.32% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
72 Gilles Muller 1664 82.13% 61.71% 28.40% 15.05% 5.17% 1.47% 0.47%
73 Pablo Carreno Busta 1678 76.81% 58.71% 32.81% 15.94% 5.73% 1.71% 0.58%
74 Florian Mayer 1470 23.19% 11.51% 3.38% 0.82% 0.13% 0.02% 0.00%
75 Taro Daniel 1442 42.43% 11.19% 2.95% 0.64% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
76 Jerzy Janowicz 1495 57.57% 18.59% 5.99% 1.61% 0.29% 0.04% 0.01%
77 Tommy Robredo 1489 40.06% 11.41% 4.15% 1.09% 0.19% 0.03% 0.00%
78 Daniel Evans 1559 59.94% 21.87% 9.90% 3.34% 0.79% 0.15% 0.03%
79 Stephane Robert 1424 16.55% 5.83% 1.68% 0.34% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
80 Grigor Dimitrov 1705 83.45% 60.89% 39.13% 20.38% 7.97% 2.60% 0.96%
81 Jack Sock 1741 72.57% 55.60% 37.62% 15.84% 8.93% 3.27% 1.36%
82 Jiri Vesely 1572 27.43% 15.18% 6.98% 1.72% 0.59% 0.12% 0.03%
83 Aljaz Bedene 1523 46.84% 13.06% 5.18% 1.06% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01%
84 Ryan Harrison 1545 53.16% 16.16% 6.86% 1.53% 0.47% 0.09% 0.02%
85 Mikhail Kukushkin 1451 45.84% 11.77% 2.94% 0.45% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
86 Tennys Sandgren 1480 54.16% 15.63% 4.39% 0.76% 0.18% 0.02% 0.00%
87 John Millman 1523 27.78% 16.12% 5.31% 1.09% 0.31% 0.05% 0.01%
88 Roberto Bautista Agut 1689 72.22% 56.48% 30.73% 11.14% 5.50% 1.70% 0.60%
89 Gilles Simon 1609 63.21% 36.66% 9.17% 3.98% 1.54% 0.36% 0.09%
90 Nikoloz Basilashvili 1515 36.79% 16.59% 2.93% 0.93% 0.26% 0.04% 0.01%
91 Victor Troicki 1595 71.05% 37.58% 8.95% 3.72% 1.37% 0.30% 0.07%
92 Evgeny Donskoy 1439 28.95% 9.18% 1.19% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
93 Robin Haase 1500 51.01% 6.69% 2.67% 0.80% 0.21% 0.03% 0.01%
94 Alex De Minaur 1493 48.99% 6.23% 2.42% 0.71% 0.18% 0.03% 0.00%
95 Benoit Paire 1531 10.79% 5.93% 2.61% 0.88% 0.26% 0.04% 0.01%
96 Rafael Nadal 1898 89.21% 81.16% 70.05% 55.12% 41.57% 23.15% 14.37%
97 Dominic Thiem 1771 80.29% 65.00% 48.08% 31.50% 12.26% 5.91% 2.69%
98 Bernard Tomic 1527 19.71% 10.09% 4.24% 1.47% 0.26% 0.05% 0.01%
99 Simone Bolelli 1494 43.70% 9.82% 3.69% 1.14% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
100 Nicolas Mahut 1538 56.30% 15.09% 6.57% 2.37% 0.43% 0.09% 0.02%
101 Mathias Bourgue 1502 39.92% 14.67% 4.09% 1.30% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
102 Borna Coric 1573 60.08% 27.78% 9.94% 4.01% 0.83% 0.21% 0.05%
103 Yuichi Sugita 1493 29.54% 12.61% 3.40% 1.05% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
104 Steve Johnson 1644 70.46% 44.94% 20.00% 9.88% 2.61% 0.85% 0.25%
105 Ivo Karlovic 1601 67.12% 42.42% 17.63% 7.21% 1.64% 0.45% 0.11%
106 Stefanos Tsitsipas 1477 32.88% 15.02% 4.16% 1.10% 0.16% 0.03% 0.00%
107 Horacio Zeballos 1509 50.58% 21.66% 6.71% 2.01% 0.32% 0.06% 0.01%
108 Adrian Mannarino 1505 49.42% 20.90% 6.39% 1.88% 0.30% 0.06% 0.01%
109 Yen-Hsun Lu 1470 53.31% 11.99% 4.79% 1.23% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
110 Sergiy Stakhovsky 1447 46.69% 9.57% 3.53% 0.83% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
111 Paul-Henri Mathieu 1434 14.30% 6.63% 2.33% 0.52% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
112 David Goffin 1745 85.70% 71.81% 54.46% 32.50% 11.75% 5.27% 2.22%
113 Lucas Pouille 1658 78.21% 55.09% 35.89% 8.95% 4.07% 1.38% 0.44%
114 Julien Bennetau 1436 21.79% 8.70% 3.04% 0.33% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
115 Thomaz Bellucci 1512 51.44% 18.94% 8.55% 1.26% 0.35% 0.07% 0.01%
116 Dusan Lajovic 1502 48.56% 17.28% 7.56% 1.07% 0.29% 0.05% 0.01%
117 Benjamin Bonzi 1500 48.13% 19.62% 7.59% 1.07% 0.28% 0.05% 0.01%
118 Daniil Medvedev 1513 51.87% 22.06% 8.91% 1.32% 0.37% 0.07% 0.01%
119 Marius Copil 1479 32.24% 14.84% 5.34% 0.69% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
120 Albert Ramos Vinolas 1608 67.76% 43.48% 23.11% 4.85% 1.89% 0.54% 0.14%
121 Mischa Zverev 1565 60.22% 33.32% 5.12% 2.44% 0.82% 0.20% 0.04%
122 Stefano Napolitano 1493 39.78% 18.00% 2.08% 0.79% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
123 Andrey Rublev 1454 34.55% 13.29% 1.31% 0.43% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
124 Diego Schwartzman 1565 65.45% 35.39% 5.43% 2.60% 0.88% 0.21% 0.05%
125 Joao Sousa 1494 52.88% 4.81% 2.11% 0.81% 0.21% 0.04% 0.01%
126 Janko Tipsarevic 1474 47.12% 3.92% 1.61% 0.57% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
127 Marcel Granollers 1456 5.30% 2.43% 0.94% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
128 Novak Djokovic 1957 94.70% 88.84% 81.40% 72.51% 58.68% 41.85% 28.93%

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