Sunday, 28 May 2017

2017 French Open Predictions - Women's

The French Open is starting this morning, here are my predictions for the draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table for you to view.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros


  • Simona Halep is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 11.35% chance of winning the whole thing, with Elina Svitolina next at 10.19%. The 3rd most likely is Petra Kvitova (if she plays) with 9.87% and Johanna Konta 4th with 7.37%
  • Shelby Rogers has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 40th most likely winner, while she is only the 52nd highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Patricia Maria Tig has a tough draw. She is the 109th most likely winners, but she is the 93rd highest ranked player competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Ekaterina Makarova, as she's the 112th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 31st of the competitors. 
  • Kateryna Bondarenko got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 47th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 99th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.



# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Angelique Kerber 1730 69.37% 53.10% 38.93% 22.61% 13.92% 8.73% 4.61%
2 Ekaterina Makarova 1588 30.63% 18.19% 10.01% 4.02% 1.72% 0.75% 0.25%
3 Lesia Tsurenko 1558 64.93% 21.29% 10.82% 3.95% 1.54% 0.60% 0.18%
4 Kateryna Kozlova 1451 35.07% 7.42% 2.67% 0.66% 0.18% 0.05% 0.01%
5 Louisa Chirico 1449 32.88% 11.45% 2.92% 0.72% 0.19% 0.05% 0.01%
6 Jelena Ostapenko 1573 67.12% 34.95% 14.01% 5.36% 2.19% 0.91% 0.29%
7 Monica Puig 1581 57.57% 32.66% 13.43% 5.27% 2.21% 0.94% 0.31%
8 Roberta Vinci 1528 42.43% 20.94% 7.21% 2.38% 0.84% 0.30% 0.08%
9 Samantha Stosur 1609 67.12% 43.87% 17.59% 8.42% 3.84% 1.77% 0.65%
10 Kristina Kucova 1485 32.88% 15.83% 4.20% 1.34% 0.40% 0.12% 0.03%
11 Kirsten Flipkens 1524 59.11% 25.88% 7.89% 2.89% 1.01% 0.35% 0.09%
12 Mandy Minella 1460 40.89% 14.41% 3.48% 1.01% 0.28% 0.08% 0.02%
13 Bethanie Mattek-Sands 1481 54.31% 11.52% 4.73% 1.49% 0.44% 0.13% 0.03%
14 Evgeniya Rodina 1451 45.69% 8.53% 3.16% 0.88% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01%
15 Julia Boserup 1519 18.90% 10.84% 5.01% 1.81% 0.62% 0.21% 0.06%
16 Petra Kvitova 1772 81.10% 69.11% 53.94% 37.19% 24.84% 16.88% 9.87%
17 Caroline Wozniacki 1718 78.21% 63.11% 45.12% 29.03% 16.06% 9.81% 5.02%
18 Jaimee Fourlis 1496 21.79% 11.73% 4.90% 1.76% 0.49% 0.15% 0.04%
19 Francoise Abanda 1460 47.41% 11.48% 4.24% 1.34% 0.32% 0.09% 0.02%
20 Tessah Andrianjafitrimo 1478 52.59% 13.69% 5.39% 1.81% 0.47% 0.14% 0.03%
21 Catherine Bellis 1549 58.41% 27.68% 10.92% 4.65% 1.56% 0.59% 0.17%
22 Quirine Lemoine 1490 41.59% 16.35% 5.31% 1.86% 0.50% 0.15% 0.04%
23 Ajla Tomljanovic 1479 32.12% 13.98% 4.37% 1.48% 0.38% 0.11% 0.02%
24 Kiki Bertens 1609 67.88% 41.99% 19.75% 9.95% 4.08% 1.88% 0.69%
25 Zhang Shuai 1506 58.55% 28.77% 9.44% 3.31% 0.95% 0.31% 0.08%
26 Donna Vekic 1446 41.45% 16.83% 4.40% 1.24% 0.28% 0.07% 0.01%
27 Viktorija Golubic 1512 50.00% 27.20% 9.12% 3.26% 0.96% 0.32% 0.08%
28 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1512 50.00% 27.20% 9.12% 3.26% 0.96% 0.32% 0.08%
29 Camila Giorgi 1549 56.02% 18.74% 10.70% 4.33% 1.45% 0.55% 0.16%
30 Oceane Dodin 1507 43.98% 12.58% 6.43% 2.26% 0.65% 0.21% 0.05%
31 Christina McHale 1519 23.71% 11.46% 6.06% 2.22% 0.67% 0.23% 0.06%
32 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1722 76.29% 57.22% 44.74% 28.25% 15.77% 9.72% 5.02%
33 Garbine Muguruza 1681 72.34% 48.25% 34.52% 20.90% 11.89% 5.84% 2.69%
34 Francesca Schiavone 1514 27.66% 12.01% 5.89% 2.25% 0.78% 0.22% 0.06%
35 Anett Kontaveit 1573 54.02% 22.38% 12.87% 5.92% 2.49% 0.87% 0.28%
36 Monica Niculescu 1545 45.98% 17.36% 9.29% 3.92% 1.51% 0.48% 0.14%
37 Johanna Larsson 1528 53.88% 27.32% 10.49% 4.20% 1.52% 0.45% 0.12%
38 Natalia Vikhlyantseva 1501 46.12% 21.61% 7.54% 2.75% 0.91% 0.24% 0.06%
39 Myrtille Georges 1497 43.42% 20.55% 7.07% 2.55% 0.82% 0.22% 0.05%
40 Yulia Putintseva 1543 56.58% 30.52% 12.32% 5.17% 1.97% 0.62% 0.18%
41 Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 1592 69.73% 43.09% 19.99% 10.20% 4.56% 1.71% 0.59%
42 Cagla Buyukakcay 1447 30.27% 12.62% 3.58% 1.14% 0.30% 0.07% 0.01%
43 Marina Erakovic 1432 34.29% 11.77% 3.14% 0.94% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01%
44 Shelby Rogers 1545 65.71% 32.51% 13.06% 5.82% 2.24% 0.71% 0.21%
45 Sara Errani 1548 55.87% 20.62% 10.54% 4.74% 1.84% 0.59% 0.17%
46 Misaki Doi 1507 44.13% 14.12% 6.41% 2.53% 0.85% 0.23% 0.06%
47 Jennifer Brady 1454 20.17% 7.92% 3.03% 0.99% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
48 Kristina Mladenovic 1693 79.83% 57.34% 40.26% 25.98% 15.21% 7.72% 3.68%
49 Venus Williams 1701 72.68% 57.29% 37.56% 23.63% 14.68% 7.61% 3.72%
50 Wang Qiang 1531 27.32% 15.95% 6.78% 2.71% 1.06% 0.32% 0.09%
51 Amanda Anisimova 1489 55.45% 15.85% 5.85% 2.02% 0.68% 0.17% 0.04%
52 Kurumi Nara 1451 44.55% 10.92% 3.51% 1.05% 0.31% 0.07% 0.01%
53 Jelena Jankovic 1531 58.55% 21.94% 8.60% 3.43% 1.35% 0.41% 0.11%
54 Richel Hogenkamp 1471 41.45% 12.39% 3.96% 1.28% 0.41% 0.10% 0.02%
55 Elise Mertens 1567 37.73% 22.12% 9.69% 4.33% 1.91% 0.66% 0.21%
56 Daria Gavrilova 1654 62.27% 43.56% 24.06% 13.63% 7.62% 3.47% 1.47%
57 Timea Bacsinszky 1630 68.88% 42.55% 23.09% 11.82% 6.22% 2.63% 1.03%
58 Sara Sorribes Tormo 1492 31.12% 13.26% 4.80% 1.59% 0.54% 0.14% 0.03%
59 Madison Brengle 1476 35.20% 12.30% 4.21% 1.31% 0.42% 0.10% 0.02%
60 Julia Gorges 1582 64.80% 31.89% 15.26% 6.82% 3.14% 1.14% 0.38%
61 Ons Jabeur 1472 53.16% 14.85% 5.29% 1.63% 0.52% 0.12% 0.03%
62 Ana Bogdan 1450 46.84% 11.95% 3.92% 1.11% 0.32% 0.07% 0.01%
63 Lara Arruabarrena 1556 32.62% 20.63% 9.68% 3.99% 1.70% 0.56% 0.17%
64 Dominika Cibulkova 1682 67.38% 52.57% 33.75% 19.64% 11.72% 5.77% 2.67%
65 Elina Svitolina 1778 82.88% 66.50% 53.63% 39.61% 25.69% 16.19% 10.19%
66 Yaroslava Shvedova 1504 17.12% 7.90% 3.75% 1.44% 0.44% 0.12% 0.03%
67 Mona Barthel 1566 63.47% 18.38% 10.30% 4.81% 1.82% 0.63% 0.22%
68 Tsvetana Pironkova 1470 36.53% 7.22% 3.09% 1.05% 0.28% 0.07% 0.02%
69 Alize Lim 1463 47.99% 18.66% 4.27% 1.42% 0.37% 0.09% 0.02%
70 Magda Linette 1477 52.01% 21.19% 5.13% 1.79% 0.49% 0.12% 0.03%
71 Danka Kovinic 1426 28.01% 12.23% 2.40% 0.69% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01%
72 Ana Konjuh 1590 71.99% 47.93% 17.43% 8.71% 3.56% 1.35% 0.51%
73 Anastasija Sevastova 1604 67.63% 40.59% 20.93% 8.77% 3.74% 1.48% 0.58%
74 Annika Beck 1476 32.37% 13.56% 4.73% 1.29% 0.35% 0.09% 0.02%
75 Risa Ozaki 1509 43.84% 18.64% 7.27% 2.24% 0.69% 0.20% 0.05%
76 Eugenie Bouchard 1552 56.16% 27.21% 12.14% 4.32% 1.56% 0.52% 0.17%
77 Kateryna Bondarenko 1476 56.72% 16.45% 6.42% 1.75% 0.48% 0.12% 0.03%
78 Petra Martic 1429 43.28% 10.33% 3.40% 0.77% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
79 Ashleigh Barty 1556 33.51% 21.45% 10.76% 3.88% 1.42% 0.48% 0.16%
80 Madison Keys 1675 66.49% 51.77% 34.36% 17.46% 9.05% 4.45% 2.18%
81 Elena Vesnina 1587 63.47% 32.84% 17.82% 6.84% 2.74% 1.03% 0.38%
82 Beatriz Haddad Maia 1491 36.53% 13.95% 5.73% 1.58% 0.45% 0.12% 0.03%
83 Sorana Cirstea 1555 44.84% 22.60% 11.27% 3.90% 1.41% 0.47% 0.16%
84 Peng Shuai 1591 55.16% 30.60% 16.78% 6.52% 2.65% 1.01% 0.38%
85 Varvara Lepchenko 1523 55.87% 24.01% 10.48% 3.25% 1.05% 0.31% 0.09%
86 Andrea Petkovic 1482 44.13% 16.60% 6.31% 1.68% 0.47% 0.12% 0.03%
87 Maria Sakkari 1428 24.77% 9.70% 3.01% 0.65% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
88 Carla Suarez Navarro 1621 75.23% 49.70% 28.59% 12.17% 5.41% 2.27% 0.94%
89 Daria Kasatkina 1602 64.67% 39.62% 14.81% 8.06% 3.39% 1.33% 0.52%
90 Yanina Wickmayer 1497 35.33% 16.45% 4.31% 1.71% 0.50% 0.13% 0.04%
91 Marketa Vondrousova 1553 61.72% 29.81% 9.51% 4.52% 1.62% 0.54% 0.18%
92 Amandine Hesse 1470 38.28% 14.13% 3.34% 1.21% 0.32% 0.08% 0.02%
93 Duan Yingying 1513 65.84% 15.27% 6.81% 2.86% 0.89% 0.25% 0.07%
94 Tatjana Maria 1399 34.16% 4.88% 1.45% 0.40% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
95 Jana Cepelova 1481 15.10% 7.69% 3.09% 1.16% 0.32% 0.08% 0.02%
96 Simona Halep 1781 84.90% 72.16% 56.69% 43.47% 28.27% 17.93% 11.35%
97 Johanna Konta 1750 82.55% 68.89% 52.38% 34.80% 21.69% 12.45% 7.37%
98 Hseih Su-Wei 1480 17.45% 9.00% 3.66% 1.13% 0.31% 0.08% 0.02%
99 Miyu Kato 1469 50.00% 11.06% 4.33% 1.28% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
100 Taylor Townsend 1469 50.00% 11.06% 4.33% 1.28% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
101 Chloe Paquet 1482 39.78% 15.82% 4.45% 1.38% 0.39% 0.09% 0.02%
102 Kristyna Pliskova 1554 60.22% 29.99% 10.79% 4.33% 1.58% 0.51% 0.17%
103 Nao Hibino 1492 36.13% 16.35% 4.77% 1.54% 0.45% 0.11% 0.03%
104 Caroline Garcia 1591 63.87% 37.84% 15.28% 6.89% 2.84% 1.04% 0.39%
105 Barbora Strycova 1660 63.34% 42.92% 23.42% 12.09% 6.09% 2.77% 1.30%
106 Alison Riske 1565 36.66% 20.12% 8.42% 3.32% 1.26% 0.42% 0.15%
107 Alize Cornet 1542 53.45% 20.54% 7.98% 2.92% 1.02% 0.32% 0.10%
108 Timea Babos 1518 46.55% 16.42% 5.88% 1.99% 0.64% 0.18% 0.05%
109 Naomi Osaka 1579 69.73% 28.29% 13.58% 5.60% 2.22% 0.78% 0.28%
110 Alison Van Uytvanck 1434 30.27% 7.26% 2.11% 0.52% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
111 Fiona Ferro 1456 20.17% 7.89% 2.50% 0.67% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
112 Agnieszka Radwanska 1695 79.83% 56.56% 36.12% 20.28% 11.17% 5.60% 2.90%
113 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1699 77.91% 53.48% 37.12% 20.95% 11.52% 5.84% 3.05%
114 Patricia Maria Tig 1480 22.09% 8.61% 3.43% 1.00% 0.27% 0.07% 0.02%
115 Veronica Cepede Royg 1482 33.77% 9.61% 3.86% 1.13% 0.31% 0.08% 0.02%
116 Lucie Safarova 1599 66.23% 28.30% 15.96% 6.92% 2.88% 1.09% 0.42%
117 Mariana Duque Marino 1475 40.75% 14.99% 4.47% 1.28% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
118 Irina-Camelia Begu 1540 59.25% 26.99% 10.18% 3.66% 1.25% 0.38% 0.12%
119 Magdalena Rybarikova 1489 33.00% 15.35% 4.82% 1.45% 0.41% 0.10% 0.03%
120 Coco Vandeweghe 1612 67.00% 42.67% 20.16% 9.09% 3.93% 1.55% 0.63%
121 Lauren Davis 1610 65.19% 43.90% 18.30% 9.05% 3.90% 1.52% 0.61%
122 Carina Witthoft 1501 34.81% 18.24% 5.27% 1.84% 0.54% 0.14% 0.04%
123 Irina Khromacheva 1490 51.73% 19.98% 5.54% 1.86% 0.53% 0.13% 0.03%
124 Pauline Parmentier 1478 48.27% 17.88% 4.73% 1.52% 0.41% 0.10% 0.02%
125 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1468 37.73% 8.33% 3.31% 1.03% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
126 Katerina Siniakova 1555 62.27% 19.13% 9.90% 4.16% 1.50% 0.48% 0.16%
127 Zheng Saisai 1427 13.68% 5.04% 1.73% 0.46% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
128 Karolina Pliskova 1747 86.32% 67.51% 51.22% 34.59% 21.22% 12.10% 7.12%
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