Sunday, 4 June 2017

2017 French Open Week 2 Predictions - Men's

Due to rain delays we're not quite fully in to week 2 yet, but we're close enough so here's an update to my predictions. This post shall be updated as 3rd round matches finish.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros
  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga went out in the 1st round to Renzo Olivo
  • Whilst Alexandre Muller and Andreas Seppi had the easiest overall draws, this didn't help them to victory, as they lost to Thiago Monteiro in the 1st round and to Fabio Fognini in the 2nd round respectively. Guido Pella, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Juan Martin del Potro in the 1st round.
  • Victor Estrella Burgos had the easiest 1st round draw, and managed to win his match, but lost to Richard Gasquet in round 2. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Andrey Kuznetsov, lost his opening match as expected to Andy Murray.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Andy Murray is now the favourite for the title, with a 29.25% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 28.91%. The 3rd most likely winner is Rafael Nadal with 15.62%, and 4th is Stan Wawrinka with 4.83%.
  • Stan Wawrinka has the easiest draw to the title relative to his ranking, as he's the 4th most likely to win the title, but is the 7th highest ranked player in the tournament.
  • On the other hand, Milos Raonic has the toughest draw relative to his ranking, as he's the 7th most likely player to win, but is the 4th highest ranked competitor.
  • As for the next match, Milos Raonic and Roberto Bautista Agut have the toughest draws. They are the 7th and 13th most likely to advance, but are the 4th and 10th highest ranked players respectively.
  • The players with the easiest next match compared to their ranking right now are Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic and Horacio Zeballos. They are the 11th, 6th and 14th most likely players to advance to the next round, while being the 13th, 8th and 16th highest ranked players remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

# Name ELO R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Andy Murray 1944 88.82% 67.12% 51.17% 29.25%
2 Karen Khachanov 1584 11.18% 3.28% 0.97% 0.15%
3 Fernando Verdasco 1642 30.51% 6.04% 2.21% 0.46%
4 Kei Nishikori 1785 69.49% 23.56% 13.32% 4.80%
5 Stan Wawrinka 1782 60.08% 36.32% 13.55% 4.83%
6 Gael Monfils 1711 39.92% 20.20% 5.87% 1.61%
7 Kevin Anderson 1637 35.07% 11.91% 2.58% 0.52%
8 Marin Cilic 1744 64.93% 31.57% 10.34% 3.22%
9 Milos Raonic 1785 62.27% 25.04% 9.03% 3.75%
10 Pablo Carreno Busta 1698 37.73% 11.16% 2.94% 0.91%
11 Roberto Bautista Agut 1706 24.24% 10.54% 2.87% 0.91%
12 Rafael Nadal 1904 75.76% 53.26% 27.33% 15.62%
13 Dominic Thiem 1785 79.65% 25.81% 11.29% 4.69%
14 Horacio Zeballos 1548 20.35% 2.52% 0.44% 0.07%
15 Albert Ramos Vinolas 1632 13.08% 4.70% 1.19% 0.28%
16 Novak Djokovic 1961 86.92% 66.98% 44.90% 28.91%

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