Sunday, 4 June 2017

2017 French Open Week 2 Predictions - Women's

Due to rain delays we're not quite fully in to week 2 yet, but we're close enough so here's an update to my predictions. This post shall be updated as 3rd round matches finish.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros
  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 2 of them are still in. Petra Kvitova lost to Bethanie Mattek-Sands in round 2 and Johanna Konta lost to Hseih Su-Wei in round 1.
  • Whilst Shelby Rogers had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help her to victory, as she lost to Kristina Mladenovic in the 3rd round. Patricia Maria Tig had the toughest draw and lost her opening match to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
  • Kateryna Bondarenko had the easiest 1st round draw, but lost her match to Petra Martic.. Despite having the toughest 1st round draw, Ekaterina Makarova won her match, but then lost to Lesia Tsurenko in the 2nd round.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Elina Svitolina is now the favourite, and has a 18.76% chance of winning the title, Karolina Pliskova is 2nd at 15.95%, Simona Halep is 3rd at 15.71%, but 4th is now Svetlana Kuznetsova with 9.02%.
  • Samantha Stosur has the easiest draws to the title relative to her ranking, as she's the 9th most likely player to win, but is the 11th highest ranked player remaining.
  • Carla Suarez Navarro and Simona Halep have the toughest draws relative to their ranking, as they are the 12th and 3rd most likely winners respectively, but are the 10th and 1st highest ranked players in the tournament.
  • As for the next match, Caroline Wozniacki, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Timea Bacsinszky and Carla Suarez Navarro have the toughest round 4 matches. they are the 9th, 8th, 13th and 14th most likely players to win their next match, but are the 5th, 4th, 9th and 10 highest ranked players respectively.
  • The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking is Caroline Garcia. She's the 5th most likely player to win her next match, but is the 12th highest ranked player remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


# Name ELO R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Jelena Ostapenko 1600 45.55% 14.37% 5.20% 1.58%
2 Samantha Stosur 1631 54.45% 19.34% 7.81% 2.66%
3 Caroline Wozniacki 1732 49.28% 32.50% 17.78% 8.45%
4 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1737 50.72% 33.78% 18.72% 9.02%
5 Garbine Muguruza 1700 48.71% 25.09% 12.70% 5.48%
6 Kristina Mladenovic 1709 51.29% 27.09% 14.05% 6.23%
7 Venus Williams 1717 59.80% 30.97% 16.41% 7.46%
8 Timea Bacsinszky 1648 40.20% 16.85% 7.31% 2.65%
9 Elina Svitolina 1787 86.11% 47.65% 30.36% 18.76%
10 Petra Martic 1470 13.89% 2.44% 0.58% 0.12%
11 Carla Suarez Navarro 1643 29.78% 10.81% 4.82% 2.01%
12 Simona Halep 1792 70.22% 39.10% 25.16% 15.71%
13 Caroline Garcia 1612 54.88% 20.26% 6.00% 2.24%
14 Alize Cornet 1578 45.12% 14.80% 3.82% 1.26%
15 Veronica Cepede Royg 1520 20.35% 7.97% 1.61% 0.42%
16 Karolina Pliskova 1757 79.65% 56.97% 27.64% 15.95%

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