Monday, 28 August 2017

2017 US Open Predictions - Women's

The US Open starts later today, and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of prediction percentages for you to view.

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  • Karolina Pliskova is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 12.44% chance of winning the whole thing, with Elina Svitolina next at 11.18%. The 3rd most likely is Simona Halep with 10.63% and Garbine Muguruza 4th with 9.03%
  • Danielle Lao has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 70th most likely winner, while she is only the 90th highest ranked player here. (among more active players Andrea Petkovic and Francesca Schiavone have the easiest draws)
  • On the other hand, Mihaela Buzarnescu has a tough draw. She is the 109th most likely winner, but she is the 73rd highest ranked player competing. (Among more active players Roberta Vinci has the toughest draw)
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Maria Sharapova, as she's the 101st most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 10th of the competitors. (Katerina Siniakova has the toughest 1st round among more active players)
  • Alison Van Uytvanck got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 46th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 122nd highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Karolina Pliskova 1791 86.79% 74.88% 62.64% 47.56% 32.95% 21.27% 12.44%
2 Magda Linette 1464 13.21% 6.50% 2.86% 0.98% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
3 Veronica Cepede Royg 1495 58.69% 12.06% 5.85% 2.23% 0.68% 0.19% 0.04%
4 Nicole Gibbs 1434 41.31% 6.56% 2.62% 0.80% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01%
5 Risa Ozaki 1455 44.84% 17.80% 3.82% 1.26% 0.33% 0.08% 0.01%
6 Danielle Lao 1491 55.16% 24.68% 6.07% 2.28% 0.69% 0.18% 0.04%
7 Sabine Lisicki 1533 51.58% 30.06% 8.59% 3.70% 1.31% 0.41% 0.10%
8 Zhang Shuai 1522 48.42% 27.46% 7.55% 3.15% 1.07% 0.32% 0.08%
9 Barbora Strycova 1645 72.22% 52.35% 31.73% 14.27% 7.17% 3.26% 1.26%
10 Misaki Doi 1479 27.78% 14.01% 5.34% 1.42% 0.41% 0.10% 0.02%
11 Jennifer Brady 1450 43.42% 13.23% 4.55% 1.09% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01%
12 Andrea Petkovic 1496 56.58% 20.41% 8.23% 2.33% 0.72% 0.20% 0.04%
13 Taylor Townsend 1480 49.42% 16.38% 6.32% 1.69% 0.49% 0.12% 0.03%
14 Ana Bogdan 1484 50.58% 17.02% 6.65% 1.80% 0.53% 0.14% 0.03%
15 Monica Niculescu 1534 34.94% 20.06% 9.17% 2.95% 1.05% 0.33% 0.08%
16 Kristina Mladenovic 1642 65.06% 46.53% 28.02% 12.50% 6.23% 2.80% 1.08%
17 Agnieszka Radwanska 1682 74.80% 54.93% 36.03% 19.82% 10.00% 5.03% 2.20%
18 Petra Martic 1493 25.20% 12.16% 4.85% 1.48% 0.41% 0.11% 0.02%
19 Sofya Zhuk 1490 45.98% 14.30% 5.64% 1.70% 0.47% 0.12% 0.03%
20 Yulia Putintseva 1518 54.02% 18.61% 8.05% 2.69% 0.82% 0.24% 0.06%
21 Ons Jabeur 1479 46.98% 15.46% 5.26% 1.52% 0.40% 0.10% 0.02%
22 Brienne Minor 1500 53.02% 18.87% 6.92% 2.16% 0.62% 0.17% 0.04%
23 Alison Riske 1564 40.48% 24.47% 11.00% 4.31% 1.54% 0.54% 0.16%
24 Coco Vandeweghe 1631 59.52% 41.20% 22.24% 10.69% 4.70% 2.05% 0.76%
25 Anett Kontaveit 1625 50.43% 29.44% 14.00% 7.45% 3.22% 1.38% 0.50%
26 Lucie Safarova 1622 49.57% 28.73% 13.55% 7.15% 3.06% 1.30% 0.46%
27 Nao Hibino 1497 35.33% 11.50% 3.67% 1.32% 0.37% 0.10% 0.02%
28 Catherine Bellis 1602 64.67% 30.33% 13.53% 6.77% 2.73% 1.09% 0.36%
29 Kurumi Nara 1438 42.01% 8.70% 2.45% 0.71% 0.16% 0.03% 0.01%
30 Sara Sorribes Tormo 1494 57.99% 15.18% 5.32% 1.90% 0.53% 0.14% 0.03%
31 Marketa Vondrousova 1533 24.24% 14.26% 5.73% 2.33% 0.75% 0.24% 0.06%
32 Svetlana Kuznetsova 1731 75.76% 61.85% 41.74% 28.00% 15.87% 9.03% 4.54%
33 Elina Svitolina 1801 79.83% 68.32% 52.33% 39.13% 28.92% 18.69% 11.18%
34 Katerina Siniakova 1562 20.17% 12.15% 5.65% 2.52% 1.08% 0.36% 0.10%
35 Evgeniya Rodina 1445 39.65% 6.31% 1.98% 0.59% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
36 Eugenie Bouchard 1518 60.35% 13.22% 5.36% 2.07% 0.77% 0.22% 0.05%
37 Shelby Rogers 1541 55.73% 22.29% 6.52% 2.72% 1.09% 0.34% 0.09%
38 Kayla Day 1501 44.27% 15.42% 3.90% 1.42% 0.50% 0.13% 0.03%
39 Allie Kiick 1500 28.59% 13.34% 3.36% 1.22% 0.43% 0.11% 0.03%
40 Daria Gavrilova 1659 71.41% 48.94% 20.90% 12.04% 6.78% 3.11% 1.26%
41 Elena Vesnina 1588 64.54% 38.09% 17.44% 6.29% 2.92% 1.08% 0.34%
42 Anna Blinkova 1484 35.46% 15.70% 5.12% 1.27% 0.42% 0.10% 0.02%
43 Madison Brengle 1495 42.71% 17.99% 6.10% 1.58% 0.54% 0.14% 0.03%
44 Kirsten Flipkens 1546 57.29% 28.21% 11.36% 3.55% 1.45% 0.46% 0.12%
45 Tatjana Maria 1426 39.51% 8.21% 2.79% 0.54% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00%
46 Ashley Kratzer 1500 60.49% 17.25% 7.58% 2.00% 0.70% 0.19% 0.04%
47 Elise Mertens 1594 35.20% 23.54% 13.45% 4.95% 2.34% 0.88% 0.28%
48 Madison Keys 1700 64.80% 51.00% 36.16% 18.11% 11.18% 5.75% 2.65%
49 Jelena Ostapenko 1645 65.71% 43.79% 24.69% 13.97% 6.19% 2.73% 1.06%
50 Lara Arruabarrena 1532 34.29% 17.55% 7.14% 2.96% 0.90% 0.27% 0.07%
51 Lesley Kerkhove 1481 39.92% 13.19% 4.49% 1.57% 0.39% 0.10% 0.02%
52 Sorana Cirstea 1552 60.08% 25.47% 11.06% 4.88% 1.60% 0.52% 0.14%
53 Daria Kasatkina 1608 61.45% 31.28% 16.86% 8.71% 3.45% 1.36% 0.46%
54 Wang Qiang 1527 38.55% 15.37% 6.56% 2.68% 0.80% 0.24% 0.06%
55 Christina McHale 1486 28.47% 10.64% 3.96% 1.41% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
56 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1646 71.53% 42.70% 25.25% 14.32% 6.37% 2.82% 1.09%
57 Lesia Tsurenko 1579 61.31% 38.88% 17.45% 8.22% 2.96% 1.06% 0.32%
58 Yanina Wickmayer 1499 38.69% 20.21% 7.00% 2.54% 0.68% 0.18% 0.04%
59 Kaia Kanepi 1470 46.41% 18.13% 5.66% 1.84% 0.44% 0.10% 0.02%
60 Francesca Schiavone 1495 53.59% 22.78% 7.78% 2.78% 0.74% 0.19% 0.04%
61 Denisa Allertova 1497 55.16% 15.77% 7.29% 2.62% 0.70% 0.18% 0.04%
62 Rebecca Peterson 1461 44.84% 11.05% 4.55% 1.43% 0.33% 0.08% 0.01%
63 Naomi Osaka 1576 32.75% 20.74% 11.89% 5.55% 1.98% 0.70% 0.21%
64 Angelique Kerber 1701 67.25% 52.44% 38.38% 24.51% 12.66% 6.53% 3.02%
65 Caroline Wozniacki 1771 82.64% 58.35% 44.25% 30.26% 18.25% 10.81% 6.31%
66 Mihaela Buzarnescu 1500 17.36% 6.00% 2.42% 0.83% 0.22% 0.06% 0.01%
67 Mona Barthel 1525 31.99% 8.14% 3.57% 1.33% 0.39% 0.11% 0.03%
68 Ekaterina Makarova 1656 68.01% 27.51% 17.08% 9.24% 4.18% 1.84% 0.79%
69 Ipek Soylu 1449 27.55% 9.93% 1.99% 0.57% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00%
70 Carla Suarez Navarro 1617 72.45% 43.26% 16.59% 8.13% 3.27% 1.27% 0.48%
71 Monica Puig 1554 51.58% 24.52% 7.53% 3.08% 1.00% 0.31% 0.09%
72 Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 1543 48.42% 22.29% 6.57% 2.59% 0.81% 0.24% 0.07%
73 Kiki Bertens 1594 67.88% 45.61% 19.74% 7.80% 2.91% 1.05% 0.37%
74 Maria Sakkari 1464 32.12% 15.80% 4.42% 1.08% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
75 Richel Hogenkamp 1468 49.57% 19.03% 5.41% 1.35% 0.32% 0.07% 0.01%
76 Arina Rodionova 1471 50.43% 19.56% 5.62% 1.42% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
77 Pauline Parmentier 1476 45.84% 11.25% 4.86% 1.25% 0.30% 0.07% 0.02%
78 Oceane Dodin 1505 54.16% 14.91% 7.04% 2.03% 0.55% 0.14% 0.04%
79 Viktoria Kuzmova 1500 20.92% 10.71% 4.98% 1.41% 0.38% 0.10% 0.02%
80 Venus Williams 1731 79.08% 63.13% 47.94% 27.62% 15.23% 8.22% 4.36%
81 Petra Kvitova 1730 80.29% 61.13% 43.52% 24.63% 13.95% 7.51% 3.97%
82 Jelena Jankovic 1486 19.71% 8.66% 3.40% 0.93% 0.24% 0.06% 0.01%
83 Heather Watson 1528 49.86% 15.04% 6.75% 2.15% 0.66% 0.19% 0.05%
84 Alize Cornet 1529 50.14% 15.18% 6.83% 2.18% 0.67% 0.19% 0.05%
85 Anna Zaja 1492 53.31% 18.77% 5.69% 1.59% 0.43% 0.10% 0.02%
86 Ekaterina Alexandrova 1469 46.69% 15.10% 4.20% 1.07% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01%
87 Tereza Martincova 1510 31.74% 17.18% 5.56% 1.66% 0.48% 0.13% 0.03%
88 Caroline Garcia 1643 68.26% 48.95% 24.05% 10.97% 4.94% 2.09% 0.86%
89 Magdalena Rybarikova 1576 50.00% 29.26% 10.09% 4.22% 1.54% 0.52% 0.17%
90 Camila Giorgi 1576 50.00% 29.26% 10.09% 4.22% 1.54% 0.52% 0.17%
91 Kristyna Pliskova 1529 54.02% 23.38% 6.88% 2.47% 0.76% 0.22% 0.06%
92 Misa Eguchi 1501 45.98% 18.10% 4.82% 1.57% 0.43% 0.11% 0.03%
93 Claire Liu 1488 51.29% 10.61% 4.35% 1.35% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
94 Duan Yingying 1479 48.71% 9.70% 3.86% 1.16% 0.29% 0.07% 0.02%
95 Varvara Lepchenko 1507 16.79% 8.96% 3.91% 1.30% 0.37% 0.10% 0.02%
96 Garbine Muguruza 1785 83.21% 70.73% 56.00% 38.54% 24.56% 14.99% 9.03%
97 Johanna Konta 1751 86.25% 69.84% 52.68% 35.64% 20.92% 11.56% 6.44%
98 Aleksandra Krunic 1432 13.75% 5.59% 1.99% 0.52% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
99 Ajla Tomljanovic 1467 42.29% 9.15% 3.66% 1.10% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
100 Johanna Larsson 1521 57.71% 15.42% 7.26% 2.66% 0.81% 0.21% 0.06%
101 Zheng Saisai 1410 45.27% 12.76% 2.60% 0.62% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
102 Alison Van Uytvanck 1443 54.73% 17.50% 4.08% 1.11% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
103 Annika Beck 1444 25.86% 13.52% 3.16% 0.86% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01%
104 Julia Gorges 1627 74.14% 56.22% 24.57% 12.56% 5.38% 2.08% 0.81%
105 Ana Konjuh 1593 46.12% 28.90% 12.71% 5.28% 2.04% 0.70% 0.24%
106 Ashleigh Barty 1620 53.88% 35.68% 17.02% 7.65% 3.21% 1.21% 0.46%
107 Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1505 50.58% 18.04% 5.87% 1.82% 0.52% 0.13% 0.03%
108 Julia Boserup 1501 49.42% 17.37% 5.57% 1.70% 0.48% 0.12% 0.03%
109 Sloane Stephens 1674 72.57% 42.72% 27.40% 14.22% 6.95% 3.11% 1.41%
110 Roberta Vinci 1505 27.43% 9.99% 4.08% 1.27% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
111 Jana Cepelova 1442 22.79% 6.01% 1.96% 0.48% 0.11% 0.02% 0.00%
112 Dominika Cibulkova 1654 77.21% 41.28% 25.38% 12.52% 5.80% 2.44% 1.04%
113 Anastasija Sevastova 1633 62.27% 40.25% 24.26% 10.14% 4.66% 1.84% 0.73%
114 Carina Witthoft 1546 37.73% 19.92% 9.65% 3.07% 1.06% 0.31% 0.09%
115 Irina-Camelia Begu 1563 64.67% 28.93% 14.68% 4.94% 1.82% 0.56% 0.17%
116 Kateryna Kozlova 1458 35.33% 10.90% 3.99% 0.92% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
117 Donna Vekic 1497 51.15% 19.52% 7.61% 2.03% 0.59% 0.14% 0.03%
118 Beatriz Haddad Maia 1489 48.85% 18.13% 6.88% 1.78% 0.50% 0.11% 0.03%
119 Amandine Hesse 1462 27.55% 12.54% 4.32% 1.01% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01%
120 Peng Shuai 1630 72.45% 49.80% 28.61% 11.85% 5.40% 2.11% 0.83%
121 Lauren Davis 1529 57.71% 31.97% 8.11% 3.49% 1.14% 0.31% 0.08%
122 Sofia Kenin 1475 42.29% 20.17% 4.13% 1.48% 0.39% 0.08% 0.02%
123 Natalia Vikhlyantseva 1514 57.71% 29.50% 7.06% 2.90% 0.89% 0.23% 0.06%
124 Sachia Vickery 1460 42.29% 18.37% 3.53% 1.20% 0.30% 0.06% 0.01%
125 Viktorija Golubic 1499 52.30% 8.95% 4.45% 1.74% 0.50% 0.12% 0.03%
126 Timea Babos 1483 47.70% 7.57% 3.59% 1.32% 0.36% 0.08% 0.02%
127 Maria Sharapova 1712 35.73% 27.89% 21.47% 14.55% 8.24% 4.12% 2.08%
128 Simona Halep 1814 64.27% 55.59% 47.65% 37.59% 26.16% 16.62% 10.63%

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