The US Open starts later today, and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of prediction percentages for you to view.
 |
| US Open Logo, © US Open |
- Karolina Pliskova is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 12.44% chance of winning the whole thing, with Elina Svitolina next at 11.18%. The 3rd most likely is Simona Halep with 10.63% and Garbine Muguruza 4th with 9.03%
- Danielle Lao has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 70th most likely winner, while she is only the 90th highest ranked player here. (among more active players Andrea Petkovic and Francesca Schiavone have the easiest draws)
- On the other hand, Mihaela Buzarnescu has a tough draw. She is the 109th most likely winner, but she is the 73rd highest ranked player competing. (Among more active players Roberta Vinci has the toughest draw)
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Maria Sharapova, as she's the 101st most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 10th of the competitors. (Katerina Siniakova has the toughest 1st round among more active players)
- Alison Van Uytvanck got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 46th most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 122nd highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1791 |
86.79% |
74.88% |
62.64% |
47.56% |
32.95% |
21.27% |
12.44% |
| 2 |
Magda Linette |
1464 |
13.21% |
6.50% |
2.86% |
0.98% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Veronica Cepede Royg |
1495 |
58.69% |
12.06% |
5.85% |
2.23% |
0.68% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 4 |
Nicole Gibbs |
1434 |
41.31% |
6.56% |
2.62% |
0.80% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Risa Ozaki |
1455 |
44.84% |
17.80% |
3.82% |
1.26% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 6 |
Danielle Lao |
1491 |
55.16% |
24.68% |
6.07% |
2.28% |
0.69% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 7 |
Sabine Lisicki |
1533 |
51.58% |
30.06% |
8.59% |
3.70% |
1.31% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
| 8 |
Zhang Shuai |
1522 |
48.42% |
27.46% |
7.55% |
3.15% |
1.07% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
| 9 |
Barbora Strycova |
1645 |
72.22% |
52.35% |
31.73% |
14.27% |
7.17% |
3.26% |
1.26% |
| 10 |
Misaki Doi |
1479 |
27.78% |
14.01% |
5.34% |
1.42% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 11 |
Jennifer Brady |
1450 |
43.42% |
13.23% |
4.55% |
1.09% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1496 |
56.58% |
20.41% |
8.23% |
2.33% |
0.72% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 13 |
Taylor Townsend |
1480 |
49.42% |
16.38% |
6.32% |
1.69% |
0.49% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 14 |
Ana Bogdan |
1484 |
50.58% |
17.02% |
6.65% |
1.80% |
0.53% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 15 |
Monica Niculescu |
1534 |
34.94% |
20.06% |
9.17% |
2.95% |
1.05% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
| 16 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1642 |
65.06% |
46.53% |
28.02% |
12.50% |
6.23% |
2.80% |
1.08% |
| 17 |
Agnieszka Radwanska |
1682 |
74.80% |
54.93% |
36.03% |
19.82% |
10.00% |
5.03% |
2.20% |
| 18 |
Petra Martic |
1493 |
25.20% |
12.16% |
4.85% |
1.48% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 19 |
Sofya Zhuk |
1490 |
45.98% |
14.30% |
5.64% |
1.70% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 20 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1518 |
54.02% |
18.61% |
8.05% |
2.69% |
0.82% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 21 |
Ons Jabeur |
1479 |
46.98% |
15.46% |
5.26% |
1.52% |
0.40% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 22 |
Brienne Minor |
1500 |
53.02% |
18.87% |
6.92% |
2.16% |
0.62% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 23 |
Alison Riske |
1564 |
40.48% |
24.47% |
11.00% |
4.31% |
1.54% |
0.54% |
0.16% |
| 24 |
Coco Vandeweghe |
1631 |
59.52% |
41.20% |
22.24% |
10.69% |
4.70% |
2.05% |
0.76% |
| 25 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1625 |
50.43% |
29.44% |
14.00% |
7.45% |
3.22% |
1.38% |
0.50% |
| 26 |
Lucie Safarova |
1622 |
49.57% |
28.73% |
13.55% |
7.15% |
3.06% |
1.30% |
0.46% |
| 27 |
Nao Hibino |
1497 |
35.33% |
11.50% |
3.67% |
1.32% |
0.37% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 28 |
Catherine Bellis |
1602 |
64.67% |
30.33% |
13.53% |
6.77% |
2.73% |
1.09% |
0.36% |
| 29 |
Kurumi Nara |
1438 |
42.01% |
8.70% |
2.45% |
0.71% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 30 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1494 |
57.99% |
15.18% |
5.32% |
1.90% |
0.53% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 31 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1533 |
24.24% |
14.26% |
5.73% |
2.33% |
0.75% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 32 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1731 |
75.76% |
61.85% |
41.74% |
28.00% |
15.87% |
9.03% |
4.54% |
| 33 |
Elina Svitolina |
1801 |
79.83% |
68.32% |
52.33% |
39.13% |
28.92% |
18.69% |
11.18% |
| 34 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1562 |
20.17% |
12.15% |
5.65% |
2.52% |
1.08% |
0.36% |
0.10% |
| 35 |
Evgeniya Rodina |
1445 |
39.65% |
6.31% |
1.98% |
0.59% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1518 |
60.35% |
13.22% |
5.36% |
2.07% |
0.77% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 37 |
Shelby Rogers |
1541 |
55.73% |
22.29% |
6.52% |
2.72% |
1.09% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
| 38 |
Kayla Day |
1501 |
44.27% |
15.42% |
3.90% |
1.42% |
0.50% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 39 |
Allie Kiick |
1500 |
28.59% |
13.34% |
3.36% |
1.22% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1659 |
71.41% |
48.94% |
20.90% |
12.04% |
6.78% |
3.11% |
1.26% |
| 41 |
Elena Vesnina |
1588 |
64.54% |
38.09% |
17.44% |
6.29% |
2.92% |
1.08% |
0.34% |
| 42 |
Anna Blinkova |
1484 |
35.46% |
15.70% |
5.12% |
1.27% |
0.42% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 43 |
Madison Brengle |
1495 |
42.71% |
17.99% |
6.10% |
1.58% |
0.54% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 44 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1546 |
57.29% |
28.21% |
11.36% |
3.55% |
1.45% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
| 45 |
Tatjana Maria |
1426 |
39.51% |
8.21% |
2.79% |
0.54% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Ashley Kratzer |
1500 |
60.49% |
17.25% |
7.58% |
2.00% |
0.70% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 47 |
Elise Mertens |
1594 |
35.20% |
23.54% |
13.45% |
4.95% |
2.34% |
0.88% |
0.28% |
| 48 |
Madison Keys |
1700 |
64.80% |
51.00% |
36.16% |
18.11% |
11.18% |
5.75% |
2.65% |
| 49 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1645 |
65.71% |
43.79% |
24.69% |
13.97% |
6.19% |
2.73% |
1.06% |
| 50 |
Lara Arruabarrena |
1532 |
34.29% |
17.55% |
7.14% |
2.96% |
0.90% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| 51 |
Lesley Kerkhove |
1481 |
39.92% |
13.19% |
4.49% |
1.57% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 52 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1552 |
60.08% |
25.47% |
11.06% |
4.88% |
1.60% |
0.52% |
0.14% |
| 53 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1608 |
61.45% |
31.28% |
16.86% |
8.71% |
3.45% |
1.36% |
0.46% |
| 54 |
Wang Qiang |
1527 |
38.55% |
15.37% |
6.56% |
2.68% |
0.80% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 55 |
Christina McHale |
1486 |
28.47% |
10.64% |
3.96% |
1.41% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 56 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1646 |
71.53% |
42.70% |
25.25% |
14.32% |
6.37% |
2.82% |
1.09% |
| 57 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1579 |
61.31% |
38.88% |
17.45% |
8.22% |
2.96% |
1.06% |
0.32% |
| 58 |
Yanina Wickmayer |
1499 |
38.69% |
20.21% |
7.00% |
2.54% |
0.68% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 59 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1470 |
46.41% |
18.13% |
5.66% |
1.84% |
0.44% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 60 |
Francesca Schiavone |
1495 |
53.59% |
22.78% |
7.78% |
2.78% |
0.74% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 61 |
Denisa Allertova |
1497 |
55.16% |
15.77% |
7.29% |
2.62% |
0.70% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 62 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1461 |
44.84% |
11.05% |
4.55% |
1.43% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 63 |
Naomi Osaka |
1576 |
32.75% |
20.74% |
11.89% |
5.55% |
1.98% |
0.70% |
0.21% |
| 64 |
Angelique Kerber |
1701 |
67.25% |
52.44% |
38.38% |
24.51% |
12.66% |
6.53% |
3.02% |
| 65 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1771 |
82.64% |
58.35% |
44.25% |
30.26% |
18.25% |
10.81% |
6.31% |
| 66 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1500 |
17.36% |
6.00% |
2.42% |
0.83% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 67 |
Mona Barthel |
1525 |
31.99% |
8.14% |
3.57% |
1.33% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 68 |
Ekaterina Makarova |
1656 |
68.01% |
27.51% |
17.08% |
9.24% |
4.18% |
1.84% |
0.79% |
| 69 |
Ipek Soylu |
1449 |
27.55% |
9.93% |
1.99% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1617 |
72.45% |
43.26% |
16.59% |
8.13% |
3.27% |
1.27% |
0.48% |
| 71 |
Monica Puig |
1554 |
51.58% |
24.52% |
7.53% |
3.08% |
1.00% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
| 72 |
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni |
1543 |
48.42% |
22.29% |
6.57% |
2.59% |
0.81% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| 73 |
Kiki Bertens |
1594 |
67.88% |
45.61% |
19.74% |
7.80% |
2.91% |
1.05% |
0.37% |
| 74 |
Maria Sakkari |
1464 |
32.12% |
15.80% |
4.42% |
1.08% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 75 |
Richel Hogenkamp |
1468 |
49.57% |
19.03% |
5.41% |
1.35% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Arina Rodionova |
1471 |
50.43% |
19.56% |
5.62% |
1.42% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 77 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1476 |
45.84% |
11.25% |
4.86% |
1.25% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 78 |
Oceane Dodin |
1505 |
54.16% |
14.91% |
7.04% |
2.03% |
0.55% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
| 79 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1500 |
20.92% |
10.71% |
4.98% |
1.41% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 80 |
Venus Williams |
1731 |
79.08% |
63.13% |
47.94% |
27.62% |
15.23% |
8.22% |
4.36% |
| 81 |
Petra Kvitova |
1730 |
80.29% |
61.13% |
43.52% |
24.63% |
13.95% |
7.51% |
3.97% |
| 82 |
Jelena Jankovic |
1486 |
19.71% |
8.66% |
3.40% |
0.93% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 83 |
Heather Watson |
1528 |
49.86% |
15.04% |
6.75% |
2.15% |
0.66% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 84 |
Alize Cornet |
1529 |
50.14% |
15.18% |
6.83% |
2.18% |
0.67% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 85 |
Anna Zaja |
1492 |
53.31% |
18.77% |
5.69% |
1.59% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 86 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1469 |
46.69% |
15.10% |
4.20% |
1.07% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Tereza Martincova |
1510 |
31.74% |
17.18% |
5.56% |
1.66% |
0.48% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 88 |
Caroline Garcia |
1643 |
68.26% |
48.95% |
24.05% |
10.97% |
4.94% |
2.09% |
0.86% |
| 89 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1576 |
50.00% |
29.26% |
10.09% |
4.22% |
1.54% |
0.52% |
0.17% |
| 90 |
Camila Giorgi |
1576 |
50.00% |
29.26% |
10.09% |
4.22% |
1.54% |
0.52% |
0.17% |
| 91 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1529 |
54.02% |
23.38% |
6.88% |
2.47% |
0.76% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
| 92 |
Misa Eguchi |
1501 |
45.98% |
18.10% |
4.82% |
1.57% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 93 |
Claire Liu |
1488 |
51.29% |
10.61% |
4.35% |
1.35% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 94 |
Duan Yingying |
1479 |
48.71% |
9.70% |
3.86% |
1.16% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 95 |
Varvara Lepchenko |
1507 |
16.79% |
8.96% |
3.91% |
1.30% |
0.37% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 96 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1785 |
83.21% |
70.73% |
56.00% |
38.54% |
24.56% |
14.99% |
9.03% |
| 97 |
Johanna Konta |
1751 |
86.25% |
69.84% |
52.68% |
35.64% |
20.92% |
11.56% |
6.44% |
| 98 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1432 |
13.75% |
5.59% |
1.99% |
0.52% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1467 |
42.29% |
9.15% |
3.66% |
1.10% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 100 |
Johanna Larsson |
1521 |
57.71% |
15.42% |
7.26% |
2.66% |
0.81% |
0.21% |
0.06% |
| 101 |
Zheng Saisai |
1410 |
45.27% |
12.76% |
2.60% |
0.62% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1443 |
54.73% |
17.50% |
4.08% |
1.11% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Annika Beck |
1444 |
25.86% |
13.52% |
3.16% |
0.86% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 104 |
Julia Gorges |
1627 |
74.14% |
56.22% |
24.57% |
12.56% |
5.38% |
2.08% |
0.81% |
| 105 |
Ana Konjuh |
1593 |
46.12% |
28.90% |
12.71% |
5.28% |
2.04% |
0.70% |
0.24% |
| 106 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1620 |
53.88% |
35.68% |
17.02% |
7.65% |
3.21% |
1.21% |
0.46% |
| 107 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1505 |
50.58% |
18.04% |
5.87% |
1.82% |
0.52% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 108 |
Julia Boserup |
1501 |
49.42% |
17.37% |
5.57% |
1.70% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 109 |
Sloane Stephens |
1674 |
72.57% |
42.72% |
27.40% |
14.22% |
6.95% |
3.11% |
1.41% |
| 110 |
Roberta Vinci |
1505 |
27.43% |
9.99% |
4.08% |
1.27% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 111 |
Jana Cepelova |
1442 |
22.79% |
6.01% |
1.96% |
0.48% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 112 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1654 |
77.21% |
41.28% |
25.38% |
12.52% |
5.80% |
2.44% |
1.04% |
| 113 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1633 |
62.27% |
40.25% |
24.26% |
10.14% |
4.66% |
1.84% |
0.73% |
| 114 |
Carina Witthoft |
1546 |
37.73% |
19.92% |
9.65% |
3.07% |
1.06% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
| 115 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1563 |
64.67% |
28.93% |
14.68% |
4.94% |
1.82% |
0.56% |
0.17% |
| 116 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1458 |
35.33% |
10.90% |
3.99% |
0.92% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Donna Vekic |
1497 |
51.15% |
19.52% |
7.61% |
2.03% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 118 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1489 |
48.85% |
18.13% |
6.88% |
1.78% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| 119 |
Amandine Hesse |
1462 |
27.55% |
12.54% |
4.32% |
1.01% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 120 |
Peng Shuai |
1630 |
72.45% |
49.80% |
28.61% |
11.85% |
5.40% |
2.11% |
0.83% |
| 121 |
Lauren Davis |
1529 |
57.71% |
31.97% |
8.11% |
3.49% |
1.14% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 122 |
Sofia Kenin |
1475 |
42.29% |
20.17% |
4.13% |
1.48% |
0.39% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 123 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1514 |
57.71% |
29.50% |
7.06% |
2.90% |
0.89% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
| 124 |
Sachia Vickery |
1460 |
42.29% |
18.37% |
3.53% |
1.20% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 125 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1499 |
52.30% |
8.95% |
4.45% |
1.74% |
0.50% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 126 |
Timea Babos |
1483 |
47.70% |
7.57% |
3.59% |
1.32% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 127 |
Maria Sharapova |
1712 |
35.73% |
27.89% |
21.47% |
14.55% |
8.24% |
4.12% |
2.08% |
| 128 |
Simona Halep |
1814 |
64.27% |
55.59% |
47.65% |
37.59% |
26.16% |
16.62% |
10.63% |
