Sunday, 3 June 2018

2018 French Open Week 2 Predictions - Men's

The 2nd week of the French Open is starting up in a few hours time, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros
  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 are still in!
  • Whilst Casper Ruud had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help him to victory, as he lost to Albert Ramos Vinolas  in the 2nd round. Jaume Munar, who had the toughest overall draw, made it to round 2 before losing to Novak Djokovic.
  • Dudi Sela had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing in round 1 to Elias Ymer. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Jeremy Chardy, won his match against Tomas Berdych, before losing to Pierre-Hugues Herbert in round 2.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Rafael Nadal is now the favourite for the title, with a 39.35% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 17.07%. The 3rd most likely winner is Alexander Zverev with 11.56%, and 4th is Juan Martin del Potro with 10.07%.
  • David Goffin and Fernando Verdasco have the easiest draws to the title relative to their ranking, as they're the 5th and 13th most likely players to win the title, but are the 6th and 14th highest ranked players in the tournament.
  • On the other hand, Kei Nishikori and Karen Khachanov have the toughest draws relative to their ranking, as they're the 6th and 14th most likely player to win, but are the 5th and 13th highest ranked competitors.
  • As for the next match, Kei Nishikori has the toughest draw. He is the 8th most likely to advance tot he quarter finals, but is the 5th highest ranked player.
  • The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking right now is David Goffin. He is the 2nd most likely player to advance to the next round, while being the 6th highest ranked player remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


# Name ELO R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
1 Rafael Nadal 1965 93.17% 77.45% 57.15% 39.35%
2 Maximilian Marterer 1511 6.83% 1.83% 0.33% 0.05%
3 Diego Schwartzman 1659 42.99% 7.93% 2.68% 0.77%
4 Kevin Anderson 1708 57.01% 12.80% 5.14% 1.77%
5 Marin Cilic 1768 61.99% 28.68% 9.47% 4.01%
6 Fabio Fognini 1683 38.01% 13.32% 3.23% 1.01%
7 John Isner 1676 28.01% 11.65% 2.75% 0.84%
8 Juan Martin del Potro 1840 71.99% 46.35% 19.25% 10.07%
9 David Goffin 1770 82.72% 34.11% 15.64% 5.52%
10 Marco Cecchinato 1498 17.28% 2.45% 0.38% 0.04%
11 Novak Djokovic 1880 81.36% 56.62% 34.60% 17.07%
12 Fernando Verdasco 1624 18.64% 6.82% 1.86% 0.37%
13 Dominic Thiem 1762 47.12% 21.01% 8.91% 3.06%
14 Kei Nishikori 1782 52.88% 24.98% 11.26% 4.14%
15 Karen Khachanov 1627 21.89% 6.61% 1.73% 0.35%
16 Alexander Zverev 1848 78.11% 47.40% 25.61% 11.56%

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