Sunday, 3 June 2018

2018 French Open Week 2 Predictions - Women's

The 2nd week of the French Open is starting up in a few hours time, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.

French Open logo, © Roland-Garros
  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 2 of them are still in. Elina Svitolina lost in the 3rd round to Mihaela Buzarnescu, and Petra Kvitova lost in the same round to Anett Kontaveit.
  • Whilst Deborah Chiesa had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help her to victory, as she lost to Belinda Bencic in the 1st round. Natalia Vikhlyantseva, who had the toughest overall draw, lost as expected to Ashleigh Barty in the 1st round.
  • Jennifer Brady had the easiest 1st round draw, and managed to win her match before losing to Yulia Putintseva in round 2. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Kristyna Pliskova, lost her opening match as expected to Serena Williams.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Serena Williams is now the favourite for the title, with a 21.77% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep 2nd at 14.42%. The 3rd most likely winner is Caroline Wozniacki with 13.05%, and 4th is Angelique Kerber with 6.92%.
  • Madison Keys has the easiest draw to the title relative to her ranking, as she's the 5th most likely to win the title, but is the 11th highest ranked player in the tournament.
  • On the other hand, Elise Mertens has the toughest draw relative to her ranking, as she's the 12th most likely player to win, but is the 8th highest ranked competitor.
  • As for the next match, Maria Sharapova has the toughest draw. She is the 14th most likely player to advance, but she is the 6th highest ranked player still in.
  • The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking right now is Barbora Strycova. She is the 2nd most likely player to advance to the next round, while being the 13th highest ranked player remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


# Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 %
1 Simona Halep 1835 66.49% 39.18% 21.50% 14.42%
2 Elise Mertens 1716 33.51% 14.07% 5.47% 2.80%
3 Angelique Kerber 1778 51.73% 24.60% 11.59% 6.92%
4 Caroline Garcia 1766 48.27% 22.15% 10.07% 5.85%
5 Garbine Muguruza 1738 70.70% 26.11% 11.18% 6.06%
6 Lesia Tsurenko 1585 29.30% 5.82% 1.39% 0.47%
7 Serena Williams 1874 67.12% 49.10% 30.36% 21.77%
8 Maria Sharapova 1750 32.88% 18.97% 8.44% 4.72%
9 Barbora Strycova 1643 67.63% 32.26% 12.03% 3.45%
10 Yulia Putintseva 1515 32.37% 9.94% 2.22% 0.36%
11 Madison Keys 1696 64.54% 40.57% 18.06% 6.35%
12 Mihaela Buzarnescu 1592 35.46% 17.24% 5.31% 1.23%
13 Anett Kontaveit 1664 43.56% 15.92% 8.42% 2.62%
14 Sloane Stephens 1709 56.44% 24.08% 14.23% 5.24%
15 Daria Kasatkina 1714 39.10% 20.92% 12.51% 4.69%
16 Caroline Wozniacki 1791 60.90% 39.08% 27.21% 13.05%

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