Grand Slam tennis returns, and so do my predictions, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates for the 2nd Grand Slam of the year, the US Open. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
- Serena Williams is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 16.22% chance of winning the title, with Naomi Osaka next at 13.51%. The 3rd most likely is Karolina Pliskova with 9.98% and Petra Kvitova 4th with 7.14%
- Garbine Muguruza has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.46 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Aryna Sabalenka has a tough draw. She is 1.31 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Kristie Ahn, as she's 31.82 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Olga Govortsova got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 36.23 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Pliskova | 1794 | 85.92% | 69.82% | 53.63% | 40.17% | 30.02% | 17.29% | 9.98% |
| 2 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1480 | 14.08% | 5.94% | 2.14% | 0.73% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Jasmine Paolini | 1476 | 36.80% | 6.93% | 2.46% | 0.83% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Caroline Garcia | 1570 | 63.20% | 17.30% | 8.35% | 3.87% | 1.79% | 0.52% | 0.15% |
| 5 | Catherine Bellis | 1599 | 64.24% | 33.41% | 11.73% | 5.90% | 2.97% | 0.96% | 0.31% |
| 6 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1498 | 35.76% | 13.58% | 3.31% | 1.21% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 7 | Anna Blinkova | 1505 | 33.41% | 13.98% | 3.51% | 1.31% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 8 | Jennifer Brady | 1625 | 66.59% | 39.03% | 14.87% | 8.00% | 4.30% | 1.52% | 0.53% |
| 9 | Angelique Kerber | 1672 | 66.82% | 47.01% | 30.44% | 14.35% | 8.63% | 3.57% | 1.47% |
| 10 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1551 | 33.18% | 18.01% | 8.72% | 2.80% | 1.22% | 0.33% | 0.09% |
| 11 | Caroline Dolehide | 1471 | 38.62% | 11.12% | 4.19% | 0.99% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Anna-Lena Friedsam | 1552 | 61.38% | 23.85% | 11.57% | 3.73% | 1.63% | 0.44% | 0.12% |
| 13 | Ann Li | 1489 | 46.99% | 17.24% | 6.07% | 1.55% | 0.55% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Arantxa Rus | 1510 | 53.01% | 20.88% | 7.91% | 2.19% | 0.84% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 15 | Tatjana Maria | 1462 | 27.15% | 12.11% | 3.86% | 0.89% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Alison Riske | 1634 | 72.85% | 49.77% | 27.23% | 11.48% | 6.31% | 2.30% | 0.84% |
| 17 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1634 | 68.24% | 46.25% | 29.39% | 16.26% | 7.16% | 2.62% | 0.95% |
| 18 | Greet Minnen | 1502 | 31.76% | 15.75% | 7.14% | 2.70% | 0.76% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 19 | Francesca Di Lorenzo | 1469 | 41.33% | 13.78% | 5.63% | 1.90% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 20 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1530 | 58.67% | 24.21% | 11.92% | 4.93% | 1.53% | 0.38% | 0.09% |
| 21 | Viktorija Golubic | 1470 | 49.63% | 18.21% | 6.76% | 2.29% | 0.57% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 22 | Vera Lapko | 1473 | 50.37% | 18.65% | 6.98% | 2.39% | 0.60% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 23 | Robin Montgomery | 1500 | 35.51% | 19.20% | 7.88% | 2.96% | 0.82% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 24 | Yulia Putintseva | 1604 | 64.49% | 43.94% | 24.30% | 12.44% | 4.99% | 1.64% | 0.53% |
| 25 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1589 | 61.48% | 39.42% | 18.77% | 10.05% | 3.84% | 1.19% | 0.37% |
| 26 | Hailey Baptiste | 1507 | 38.52% | 20.35% | 7.59% | 3.21% | 0.92% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 27 | Varvara Gracheva | 1493 | 51.67% | 21.18% | 7.54% | 3.05% | 0.83% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 28 | Paula Badosa | 1482 | 48.33% | 19.05% | 6.51% | 2.53% | 0.66% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Kateryna Bondarenko | 1446 | 43.67% | 11.38% | 4.35% | 1.49% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Allie Kiick | 1491 | 56.33% | 17.34% | 7.67% | 3.08% | 0.83% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 31 | Tereza Martincova | 1423 | 18.02% | 7.78% | 2.74% | 0.86% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Petra Martic | 1687 | 81.98% | 63.50% | 44.84% | 29.85% | 15.18% | 6.56% | 2.83% |
| 33 | Naomi Osaka | 1835 | 91.27% | 71.47% | 57.91% | 44.22% | 30.25% | 21.44% | 13.51% |
| 34 | Misaki Doi | 1427 | 8.73% | 2.27% | 0.67% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Camila Giorgi | 1637 | 59.66% | 17.24% | 10.02% | 5.30% | 2.26% | 1.03% | 0.38% |
| 36 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1569 | 40.34% | 9.01% | 4.37% | 1.92% | 0.65% | 0.24% | 0.07% |
| 37 | Marta Kostyuk | 1474 | 34.92% | 11.49% | 2.00% | 0.64% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Daria Kasatkina | 1582 | 65.08% | 31.04% | 8.40% | 3.83% | 1.36% | 0.53% | 0.16% |
| 39 | Coco Gauff | 1619 | 56.78% | 34.24% | 10.61% | 5.35% | 2.15% | 0.93% | 0.32% |
| 40 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1571 | 43.22% | 23.23% | 6.03% | 2.66% | 0.91% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
| 41 | Magda Linette | 1579 | 63.40% | 43.85% | 18.26% | 5.66% | 2.00% | 0.76% | 0.23% |
| 42 | Maddison Inglis | 1484 | 36.60% | 20.70% | 6.22% | 1.33% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 43 | Danka Kovinic | 1397 | 40.31% | 12.20% | 2.59% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Lizette Cabrera | 1465 | 59.69% | 23.25% | 6.51% | 1.29% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Usue Maitane Arconada | 1475 | 46.77% | 10.89% | 4.90% | 1.01% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Kaja Juvan | 1497 | 53.23% | 13.64% | 6.56% | 1.49% | 0.39% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 47 | Danielle Collins | 1610 | 33.88% | 22.69% | 14.39% | 4.96% | 1.94% | 0.82% | 0.27% |
| 48 | Anett Kontaveit | 1726 | 66.12% | 52.79% | 40.58% | 19.79% | 10.79% | 6.21% | 3.01% |
| 49 | Elena Rybakina | 1727 | 79.82% | 64.61% | 42.21% | 24.06% | 12.14% | 7.00% | 3.40% |
| 50 | Katarina Zavatska | 1488 | 20.18% | 10.52% | 3.55% | 0.99% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Irina Khromacheva | 1426 | 39.14% | 7.96% | 2.13% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Shelby Rogers | 1503 | 60.86% | 16.91% | 6.03% | 1.77% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 53 | Madison Brengle | 1449 | 31.70% | 8.59% | 2.31% | 0.55% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1582 | 68.30% | 29.59% | 12.51% | 4.83% | 1.57% | 0.61% | 0.18% |
| 55 | Astra Sharma | 1476 | 23.81% | 9.78% | 2.91% | 0.77% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Dayana Yastremska | 1678 | 76.19% | 52.05% | 28.36% | 14.38% | 6.35% | 3.25% | 1.37% |
| 57 | Rebecca Peterson | 1585 | 63.80% | 33.23% | 12.17% | 4.94% | 1.62% | 0.63% | 0.19% |
| 58 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1486 | 36.20% | 13.82% | 3.62% | 1.04% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 59 | Marie Bouzkova | 1557 | 46.41% | 23.69% | 7.93% | 2.94% | 0.87% | 0.31% | 0.08% |
| 60 | Jessica Pegula | 1582 | 53.59% | 29.25% | 10.61% | 4.27% | 1.39% | 0.53% | 0.16% |
| 61 | Kateryna Kozlova | 1472 | 50.31% | 10.16% | 3.78% | 1.03% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 62 | Whitney Osuigwe | 1470 | 49.69% | 9.95% | 3.67% | 0.99% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1492 | 16.43% | 8.71% | 3.47% | 1.02% | 0.24% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Petra Kvitova | 1774 | 83.57% | 71.18% | 54.76% | 35.97% | 20.35% | 12.97% | 7.14% |
| 65 | Madison Keys | 1739 | 86.83% | 67.42% | 49.65% | 31.41% | 16.29% | 9.11% | 4.63% |
| 66 | Timea Babos | 1411 | 13.17% | 4.56% | 1.40% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Jil Teichmann | 1539 | 55.58% | 16.56% | 7.87% | 2.95% | 0.83% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 68 | Aliona Bolsova | 1500 | 44.42% | 11.45% | 4.82% | 1.58% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Lauren Davis | 1498 | 35.73% | 16.27% | 4.77% | 1.55% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 70 | Alize Cornet | 1600 | 64.27% | 38.34% | 15.86% | 7.17% | 2.50% | 0.93% | 0.30% |
| 71 | Ysaline Bonaventure | 1441 | 32.08% | 10.69% | 2.52% | 0.66% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Zhang Shuai | 1571 | 67.92% | 34.69% | 13.12% | 5.44% | 1.72% | 0.58% | 0.17% |
| 73 | Donna Vekic | 1612 | 58.88% | 40.47% | 18.03% | 8.22% | 2.98% | 1.15% | 0.39% |
| 74 | Kristyna Pliskova | 1549 | 41.12% | 24.95% | 9.18% | 3.45% | 1.01% | 0.31% | 0.08% |
| 75 | Patricia Maria Tig | 1507 | 63.42% | 24.71% | 7.88% | 2.56% | 0.64% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 76 | Kurumi Nara | 1412 | 36.58% | 9.87% | 2.18% | 0.49% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Tsvetana Pironkova | 1508 | 52.90% | 14.28% | 6.29% | 2.05% | 0.51% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 78 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1488 | 47.10% | 11.73% | 4.84% | 1.46% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 79 | Nao Hibino | 1512 | 21.33% | 11.09% | 4.95% | 1.64% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 80 | Garbine Muguruza | 1739 | 78.67% | 62.90% | 46.65% | 29.06% | 15.09% | 8.45% | 4.29% |
| 81 | Maria Sakkari | 1673 | 83.35% | 57.06% | 37.02% | 15.65% | 7.92% | 3.71% | 1.56% |
| 82 | Stefanie Vogele | 1393 | 16.65% | 5.04% | 1.43% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Bernada Pera | 1545 | 52.13% | 20.21% | 9.67% | 2.75% | 0.94% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 84 | Zarina Diyas | 1530 | 47.87% | 17.68% | 8.11% | 2.18% | 0.71% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 85 | Natalia Vikhlyantseva | 1471 | 45.90% | 15.75% | 5.05% | 1.09% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Katrina Scott | 1500 | 54.10% | 20.52% | 7.29% | 1.76% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 87 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1455 | 26.06% | 11.83% | 3.56% | 0.72% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Amanda Anisimova | 1636 | 73.94% | 51.90% | 27.86% | 10.59% | 4.84% | 2.03% | 0.75% |
| 89 | Sloane Stephens | 1562 | 52.97% | 37.41% | 9.75% | 4.30% | 1.55% | 0.50% | 0.14% |
| 90 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1541 | 47.03% | 32.03% | 7.72% | 3.19% | 1.07% | 0.32% | 0.08% |
| 91 | Vitalia Diatchenko | 1400 | 47.34% | 13.91% | 1.86% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Olga Govortsova | 1418 | 52.66% | 16.66% | 2.42% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Margarita Gasparyan | 1530 | 44.70% | 8.54% | 4.51% | 1.80% | 0.58% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 94 | Monica Puig | 1567 | 55.30% | 12.27% | 7.11% | 3.18% | 1.17% | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| 95 | Kristie Ahn | 1494 | 11.91% | 5.00% | 2.39% | 0.84% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Serena Williams | 1842 | 88.09% | 74.18% | 64.24% | 50.62% | 36.41% | 25.21% | 16.22% |
| 97 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1761 | 82.12% | 49.31% | 37.23% | 25.35% | 15.68% | 8.44% | 4.54% |
| 98 | Oceane Dodin | 1496 | 17.88% | 4.83% | 1.97% | 0.65% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Victoria Azarenka | 1725 | 85.01% | 43.26% | 30.93% | 19.66% | 11.23% | 5.51% | 2.69% |
| 100 | Barbara Haas | 1423 | 14.99% | 2.60% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Sachia Vickery | 1475 | 43.86% | 14.60% | 2.92% | 0.90% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Taylor Townsend | 1518 | 56.14% | 21.87% | 5.25% | 1.88% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 103 | Iga Swiatek | 1573 | 44.13% | 26.69% | 8.01% | 3.45% | 1.28% | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| 104 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1614 | 55.87% | 36.84% | 12.87% | 6.26% | 2.65% | 0.93% | 0.32% |
| 105 | Karolina Muchova | 1644 | 50.39% | 37.77% | 20.55% | 9.04% | 4.19% | 1.62% | 0.62% |
| 106 | Venus Williams | 1642 | 49.61% | 37.03% | 20.01% | 8.73% | 4.01% | 1.54% | 0.58% |
| 107 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1429 | 43.73% | 9.86% | 2.66% | 0.52% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Nina Stojanovic | 1472 | 56.27% | 15.34% | 4.90% | 1.16% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 109 | Sorana Cirstea | 1513 | 50.08% | 16.03% | 6.20% | 1.73% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 110 | Christina McHale | 1512 | 49.92% | 15.94% | 6.15% | 1.71% | 0.51% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 111 | Heather Watson | 1536 | 28.74% | 15.34% | 6.39% | 1.95% | 0.63% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 112 | Johanna Konta | 1694 | 71.26% | 52.69% | 33.14% | 16.78% | 8.88% | 3.99% | 1.78% |
| 113 | Elise Mertens | 1711 | 69.01% | 55.24% | 37.42% | 21.00% | 11.40% | 5.38% | 2.53% |
| 114 | Laura Siegemund | 1572 | 30.99% | 19.94% | 9.85% | 3.76% | 1.34% | 0.40% | 0.12% |
| 115 | Claire Liu | 1485 | 55.08% | 14.58% | 5.50% | 1.54% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 116 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1450 | 44.92% | 10.24% | 3.41% | 0.83% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 117 | Viktoria Kuzmova | 1525 | 56.96% | 22.23% | 8.25% | 2.68% | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 118 | Caty McNally | 1476 | 43.04% | 14.15% | 4.43% | 1.20% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Kim Clijsters | 1491 | 28.54% | 13.73% | 4.53% | 1.30% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 120 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1650 | 71.46% | 49.89% | 26.62% | 12.83% | 5.90% | 2.33% | 0.91% |
| 121 | Ons Jabeur | 1639 | 68.65% | 44.63% | 19.90% | 10.33% | 4.59% | 1.75% | 0.66% |
| 122 | Katarzyna Kawa | 1503 | 31.35% | 14.43% | 4.12% | 1.40% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 123 | Katerina Siniakova | 1498 | 41.91% | 15.31% | 4.29% | 1.43% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 124 | Kaia Kanepi | 1555 | 58.09% | 25.63% | 8.78% | 3.56% | 1.19% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 125 | Vera Zvonareva | 1524 | 52.03% | 13.54% | 5.78% | 2.12% | 0.63% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 126 | Leylah Annie Fernandez | 1510 | 47.97% | 11.81% | 4.82% | 1.68% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 127 | Yanina Wickmayer | 1510 | 18.76% | 9.19% | 3.75% | 1.31% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 128 | Sofia Kenin | 1764 | 81.24% | 65.47% | 48.55% | 33.04% | 20.30% | 11.01% | 5.97% |
