Grand Slam tennis returns, and so do my predictions, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates for the 2nd Grand Slam of the year, the US Open. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 45.24% chance of winning the whole thing, with Dominic Thiem next at 11.42%. The 3rd most likely is Stefanos Tsitsipas with 8.88% and Daniil Medvedev 4th with 6.19%
- Matteo Berrettini has the easiest overall draw, as he is 2.2 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Andrey Rublev has a tough draw. He is 1.31 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Albert Ramos-Vinolas, as he's 42.34 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Marco Cecchinato got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 32.41 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2025 | 96.03% | 88.40% | 81.35% | 73.72% | 66.49% | 55.38% | 45.24% |
| 2 | Damir Dzumhur | 1471 | 3.97% | 1.30% | 0.46% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Kyle Edmund | 1624 | 59.61% | 6.85% | 3.81% | 1.95% | 0.95% | 0.35% | 0.12% |
| 4 | Alexander Bublik | 1556 | 40.39% | 3.44% | 1.60% | 0.67% | 0.27% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 5 | Joao Sousa | 1498 | 55.44% | 18.87% | 1.59% | 0.55% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Michael Mmoh | 1460 | 44.56% | 13.15% | 0.93% | 0.28% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Pedro Martinez | 1495 | 27.44% | 14.26% | 1.19% | 0.41% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1664 | 72.56% | 53.73% | 9.06% | 5.11% | 2.79% | 1.17% | 0.45% |
| 9 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1670 | 74.81% | 57.07% | 34.14% | 6.91% | 3.83% | 1.64% | 0.64% |
| 10 | Yasutaka Uchiyama | 1481 | 25.19% | 13.10% | 4.60% | 0.44% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Mitchell Krueger | 1467 | 50.01% | 14.92% | 4.99% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Pedro Sousa | 1467 | 49.99% | 14.91% | 4.98% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Federico Gaio | 1441 | 44.54% | 11.14% | 3.53% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Ricardas Berankis | 1479 | 55.46% | 16.20% | 5.88% | 0.56% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Steve Johnson | 1546 | 31.63% | 19.54% | 8.75% | 1.10% | 0.42% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 16 | John Isner | 1680 | 68.37% | 53.13% | 33.14% | 6.96% | 3.95% | 1.74% | 0.71% |
| 17 | Denis Shapovalov | 1654 | 73.31% | 50.99% | 30.73% | 16.15% | 3.49% | 1.42% | 0.53% |
| 18 | Sebastian Korda | 1478 | 26.69% | 12.18% | 4.43% | 1.32% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 19 | Thai-Son Kwiatkowski | 1466 | 39.91% | 12.56% | 4.37% | 1.24% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1537 | 60.09% | 24.27% | 10.73% | 3.96% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 21 | Mohamed Safwat | 1433 | 30.44% | 8.89% | 2.74% | 0.68% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Gilles Simon | 1577 | 69.56% | 33.30% | 16.48% | 6.94% | 1.13% | 0.36% | 0.10% |
| 23 | Dominik Koepfer | 1498 | 31.37% | 14.14% | 5.50% | 1.77% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Taylor Fritz | 1634 | 68.63% | 43.67% | 25.02% | 12.49% | 2.52% | 0.97% | 0.34% |
| 25 | Filip Krajinovic | 1680 | 75.45% | 56.50% | 32.25% | 19.91% | 4.71% | 2.07% | 0.84% |
| 26 | Mikael Ymer | 1485 | 24.55% | 12.10% | 3.82% | 1.35% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Marcos Giron | 1501 | 53.43% | 17.47% | 5.84% | 2.18% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Marc Polmans | 1477 | 46.57% | 13.93% | 4.27% | 1.46% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Lloyd Harris | 1513 | 63.62% | 18.25% | 7.10% | 2.76% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 30 | Marco Cecchinato | 1416 | 36.38% | 6.81% | 1.87% | 0.51% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Reilly Opelka | 1648 | 43.99% | 31.86% | 18.08% | 10.39% | 2.20% | 0.88% | 0.32% |
| 32 | David Goffin | 1690 | 56.01% | 43.08% | 26.78% | 16.89% | 4.14% | 1.87% | 0.78% |
| 33 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1836 | 80.67% | 71.79% | 59.93% | 49.25% | 34.80% | 14.51% | 8.88% |
| 34 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1587 | 19.33% | 12.79% | 7.11% | 3.78% | 1.48% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 35 | Maxime Cressy | 1500 | 61.17% | 10.70% | 4.65% | 1.91% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 36 | Jozef Kovalik | 1421 | 38.83% | 4.72% | 1.56% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Juan Ignacio Londero | 1536 | 65.12% | 29.81% | 7.56% | 3.47% | 1.14% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 38 | Evgeny Donskoy | 1428 | 34.88% | 11.00% | 1.82% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Pablo Andujar | 1478 | 32.22% | 15.19% | 3.09% | 1.18% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Borna Coric | 1608 | 67.78% | 43.99% | 14.28% | 7.99% | 3.33% | 0.68% | 0.22% |
| 41 | Dusan Lajovic | 1523 | 39.19% | 21.43% | 9.31% | 2.50% | 0.79% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 42 | Egor Gerasimov | 1599 | 60.81% | 39.58% | 21.42% | 7.46% | 3.03% | 0.60% | 0.18% |
| 43 | Stefano Travaglia | 1443 | 39.15% | 12.83% | 4.22% | 0.83% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Jordan Thompson | 1520 | 60.85% | 26.16% | 11.25% | 2.99% | 0.93% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 45 | Attila Balazs | 1557 | 57.33% | 26.30% | 13.69% | 4.14% | 1.47% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 46 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1505 | 42.67% | 16.59% | 7.44% | 1.87% | 0.55% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 47 | Ulises Blanch | 1500 | 32.47% | 14.62% | 6.44% | 1.59% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Christian Garin | 1627 | 67.53% | 42.49% | 26.23% | 9.97% | 4.41% | 0.97% | 0.33% |
| 49 | Diego Schwartzman | 1693 | 74.61% | 57.56% | 42.08% | 21.85% | 10.68% | 2.94% | 1.24% |
| 50 | Cameron Norrie | 1506 | 25.39% | 13.59% | 6.60% | 1.92% | 0.52% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Jason Jung | 1467 | 46.37% | 12.67% | 5.48% | 1.38% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Federico Coria | 1493 | 53.63% | 16.17% | 7.56% | 2.10% | 0.54% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 53 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1476 | 53.68% | 21.53% | 7.15% | 1.86% | 0.45% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Dennis Novak | 1450 | 46.32% | 16.98% | 5.14% | 1.21% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Peter Gojowczyk | 1508 | 40.86% | 23.00% | 8.54% | 2.51% | 0.69% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 56 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1572 | 59.14% | 38.49% | 17.46% | 6.40% | 2.20% | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| 57 | Adrian Mannarino | 1554 | 59.29% | 33.37% | 9.93% | 4.51% | 1.46% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 58 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1488 | 40.71% | 19.11% | 4.42% | 1.63% | 0.42% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 59 | Jack Sock | 1489 | 44.71% | 19.95% | 4.63% | 1.71% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Pablo Cuevas | 1526 | 55.29% | 27.57% | 7.40% | 3.09% | 0.91% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 61 | Paolo Lorenzi | 1432 | 38.33% | 5.11% | 1.92% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Brandon Nakashima | 1514 | 61.67% | 12.23% | 6.01% | 2.42% | 0.68% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Kevin Anderson | 1748 | 47.45% | 38.86% | 30.54% | 21.45% | 11.94% | 3.90% | 1.93% |
| 64 | Alexander Zverev | 1766 | 52.55% | 43.80% | 35.15% | 25.38% | 14.68% | 5.05% | 2.62% |
| 65 | Matteo Berrettini | 1718 | 83.77% | 61.62% | 44.37% | 27.62% | 15.35% | 6.95% | 2.07% |
| 66 | Go Soeda | 1433 | 16.23% | 5.78% | 1.95% | 0.52% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Yuichi Sugita | 1477 | 36.50% | 9.42% | 3.72% | 1.17% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 68 | Ugo Humbert | 1573 | 63.50% | 23.18% | 12.27% | 5.32% | 1.96% | 0.54% | 0.09% |
| 69 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1494 | 35.93% | 16.01% | 4.91% | 1.65% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Aljaz Bedene | 1595 | 64.07% | 37.63% | 16.18% | 7.48% | 2.96% | 0.89% | 0.17% |
| 71 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1486 | 39.14% | 15.60% | 4.63% | 1.51% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Casper Ruud | 1562 | 60.86% | 30.76% | 11.96% | 5.03% | 1.79% | 0.48% | 0.08% |
| 73 | Benoit Paire | 1581 | 63.55% | 41.95% | 17.18% | 7.56% | 2.87% | 0.82% | 0.15% |
| 74 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1485 | 36.45% | 19.21% | 5.66% | 1.80% | 0.48% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 75 | Salvatore Caruso | 1474 | 52.30% | 20.85% | 5.89% | 1.80% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 76 | James Duckworth | 1458 | 47.70% | 17.99% | 4.78% | 1.37% | 0.33% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Taro Daniel | 1471 | 50.52% | 11.20% | 4.87% | 1.47% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Gregoire Barrere | 1468 | 49.48% | 10.80% | 4.64% | 1.38% | 0.35% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Jeremy Chardy | 1615 | 33.40% | 23.29% | 14.74% | 7.15% | 3.01% | 0.97% | 0.20% |
| 80 | Andrey Rublev | 1735 | 66.60% | 54.71% | 42.24% | 27.16% | 15.66% | 7.43% | 2.34% |
| 81 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1664 | 67.46% | 45.37% | 28.55% | 13.38% | 6.93% | 2.66% | 0.66% |
| 82 | Tommy Paul | 1538 | 32.54% | 16.32% | 7.36% | 2.33% | 0.82% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 83 | Marton Fucsovics | 1576 | 66.15% | 28.67% | 14.48% | 5.21% | 2.09% | 0.58% | 0.10% |
| 84 | Hugo Dellien | 1459 | 33.85% | 9.65% | 3.31% | 0.78% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Frances Tiafoe | 1535 | 44.86% | 19.22% | 7.93% | 2.49% | 0.87% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 86 | Andreas Seppi | 1571 | 55.14% | 26.45% | 12.20% | 4.33% | 1.71% | 0.47% | 0.08% |
| 87 | John Millman | 1570 | 45.87% | 23.90% | 10.98% | 3.88% | 1.52% | 0.41% | 0.07% |
| 88 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1598 | 54.13% | 30.43% | 15.19% | 5.88% | 2.53% | 0.77% | 0.15% |
| 89 | Guido Pella | 1580 | 62.19% | 33.42% | 11.20% | 5.39% | 2.19% | 0.62% | 0.11% |
| 90 | Jeffrey John Wolf | 1493 | 37.81% | 15.73% | 3.88% | 1.41% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 91 | Feliciano Lopez | 1587 | 62.70% | 34.86% | 11.96% | 5.87% | 2.44% | 0.71% | 0.13% |
| 92 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1497 | 37.30% | 15.99% | 3.99% | 1.47% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Christopher O'Connell | 1481 | 44.76% | 8.63% | 3.42% | 1.19% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Laslo Djere | 1518 | 55.24% | 12.39% | 5.54% | 2.19% | 0.72% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 95 | Federico Delbonis | 1495 | 15.15% | 7.43% | 3.09% | 1.13% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Daniil Medvedev | 1794 | 84.85% | 71.54% | 56.92% | 43.07% | 29.53% | 16.37% | 6.19% |
| 97 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1714 | 70.45% | 49.36% | 27.83% | 17.31% | 7.35% | 3.91% | 1.15% |
| 98 | Tennys Sandgren | 1564 | 29.55% | 14.67% | 5.37% | 2.22% | 0.56% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 99 | Gianluca Mager | 1540 | 43.42% | 14.19% | 4.79% | 1.83% | 0.42% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 100 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1586 | 56.58% | 21.78% | 8.59% | 3.82% | 1.05% | 0.38% | 0.07% |
| 101 | Vasek Pospisil | 1556 | 48.66% | 15.55% | 6.01% | 2.42% | 0.59% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 102 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1565 | 51.34% | 16.96% | 6.76% | 2.81% | 0.71% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 103 | Leonardo Mayer | 1468 | 17.24% | 6.38% | 1.79% | 0.52% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Milos Raonic | 1741 | 82.76% | 61.11% | 38.85% | 25.50% | 11.69% | 6.62% | 2.12% |
| 105 | Alex De Minaur | 1661 | 69.82% | 42.70% | 23.89% | 11.51% | 4.13% | 1.90% | 0.46% |
| 106 | Andrej Martin | 1515 | 30.18% | 12.47% | 4.48% | 1.33% | 0.27% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Ivo Karlovic | 1459 | 27.97% | 8.21% | 2.38% | 0.56% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Richard Gasquet | 1624 | 72.03% | 36.62% | 18.58% | 8.02% | 2.53% | 1.04% | 0.22% |
| 109 | Andrey Kuznetsov | 1527 | 35.46% | 13.15% | 5.02% | 1.55% | 0.34% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 110 | Sam Querrey | 1631 | 64.54% | 33.07% | 17.33% | 7.65% | 2.47% | 1.04% | 0.23% |
| 111 | Jannik Sinner | 1523 | 30.71% | 12.33% | 4.65% | 1.42% | 0.30% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 112 | Karen Khachanov | 1665 | 69.29% | 41.45% | 23.66% | 11.53% | 4.18% | 1.95% | 0.48% |
| 113 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1658 | 75.97% | 29.29% | 18.37% | 6.61% | 3.24% | 1.48% | 0.36% |
| 114 | Thiago Monteiro | 1458 | 24.03% | 4.17% | 1.48% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Andy Murray | 1790 | 74.70% | 54.25% | 42.28% | 21.98% | 14.63% | 9.21% | 3.44% |
| 116 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1602 | 25.30% | 12.28% | 6.76% | 2.02% | 0.83% | 0.32% | 0.06% |
| 117 | Corentin Moutet | 1480 | 41.63% | 14.47% | 3.16% | 0.60% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Jiri Vesely | 1539 | 58.37% | 24.86% | 6.90% | 1.64% | 0.54% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 119 | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 1525 | 35.62% | 18.36% | 4.83% | 1.09% | 0.34% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Daniel Evans | 1628 | 64.38% | 42.30% | 16.22% | 5.29% | 2.37% | 0.99% | 0.21% |
| 121 | Marin Cilic | 1661 | 76.97% | 55.05% | 18.54% | 8.73% | 4.31% | 1.98% | 0.48% |
| 122 | Denis Kudla | 1451 | 23.03% | 9.98% | 1.59% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Norbert Gombos | 1441 | 37.21% | 10.48% | 1.61% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Radu Albot | 1532 | 62.79% | 24.50% | 5.33% | 1.65% | 0.53% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 125 | Sumit Nagal | 1473 | 56.54% | 7.83% | 2.76% | 0.68% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Bradley Klahn | 1428 | 43.46% | 4.91% | 1.46% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Jaume Munar | 1473 | 9.90% | 5.23% | 1.84% | 0.45% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Dominic Thiem | 1857 | 90.10% | 82.02% | 66.87% | 48.00% | 35.71% | 25.36% | 11.42% |
