Saturday, 28 October 2023

2023 WTA Finals Predictions

Next week, the season ending WTA Finals takes place, this time in Cancun. After the jump, I'll take a look at the players competing this year and how I expect the tournament to go.

The 8 players at the WTA Finals this year, © Getty Images
The 8 players at the WTA Finals this year, © Getty Images

The 8 tennis players who will be playing the WTA Finals, coloured by the group they are in, along with their ELO ratings and my estimated chances for each player to advance from their group, to make it to the final and to win the title are:

# Player ELO Adv Final Win
1 Iga Swiatek 1969 75% 51% 32%
2 Coco Gauff 1893 59% 33% 17%
3 Aryna Sabalenka 1889 65% 33% 17%
4 Jessica Pegula 1846 55% 24% 11%
5 Elena Rybakina 1837 52% 22% 10%
6 Marketa Vondrousova 1799 34% 15% 6%
7 Ons Jabeur 1789 32% 13% 5%
8 Maria Sakkari 1737 28% 8% 3%

The Chetumal Group (Red) is slightly tougher of the 2 groups, as it has the ELO #1 and #2 players in it, while the Bacalar Group (Blue) has the next three best ranked players in it.

(NOTE: Because the finalists could come from the same group or both groups, the numbers for the winner are a best estimate)