The US Open starts tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Men's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of prediction percentages for you to view.
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- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 33.53% chance of winning the whole thing, with Roger Federer next at 19.72%. The 3rd most likely is Novak Djokovic with 15.71% and Juan Martin del Potro 4th with 7.18%
- Roberto Carballes Baena and Mitchell Krueger are tied as to the easiest draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. They are the 100th and 101st ranked players, and are the 82nd and 83rd most likely to win the tournament.
- On the other hand, Yoshihito Nishioka has a tough draw. He is the 104th most likely winner, but he is the 73rd highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw is tied between David Ferrer and Stan Wawrinka, who are the 60th and 16th highest ranked players but are only the 128th and 84th most likely to make it to round 2.
- Lukas Lacko got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 59th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 116th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
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| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Rafael Nadal |
1995 |
93.30% |
89.53% |
80.39% |
73.59% |
63.49% |
51.08% |
33.53% |
| 2 |
David Ferrer |
1538 |
6.70% |
4.23% |
1.75% |
0.79% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Vasek Pospisil |
1442 |
49.32% |
3.04% |
0.90% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Lukas Lacko |
1447 |
50.68% |
3.20% |
0.96% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 5 |
Gilles Muller |
1531 |
54.44% |
19.76% |
2.32% |
1.02% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 6 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1500 |
45.56% |
14.80% |
1.54% |
0.61% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1491 |
25.21% |
11.68% |
1.17% |
0.45% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Karen Khachanov |
1680 |
74.79% |
53.76% |
10.98% |
7.09% |
3.68% |
1.58% |
0.42% |
| 9 |
Jack Sock |
1553 |
60.89% |
31.86% |
14.40% |
2.07% |
0.72% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 10 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1476 |
39.11% |
16.18% |
5.68% |
0.59% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1552 |
54.85% |
29.68% |
13.38% |
1.91% |
0.66% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 12 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1518 |
45.15% |
22.27% |
9.02% |
1.12% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Casper Ruud |
1484 |
38.15% |
13.22% |
5.69% |
0.61% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
Guido Pella |
1568 |
61.85% |
28.06% |
15.43% |
2.35% |
0.86% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
| 15 |
Paolo Lorenzi |
1420 |
21.25% |
7.25% |
2.50% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Kyle Edmund |
1648 |
78.75% |
51.47% |
33.90% |
6.97% |
3.30% |
1.28% |
0.30% |
| 17 |
Dominic Thiem |
1718 |
78.14% |
51.34% |
31.49% |
19.28% |
5.72% |
2.74% |
0.84% |
| 18 |
Mirza Basic |
1496 |
21.86% |
7.81% |
2.53% |
0.81% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Denis Istomin |
1514 |
32.36% |
9.71% |
3.35% |
1.15% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Steve Johnson |
1642 |
67.64% |
31.13% |
15.99% |
8.18% |
1.90% |
0.72% |
0.17% |
| 21 |
Mischa Zverev |
1555 |
52.06% |
18.82% |
6.81% |
2.68% |
0.45% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 22 |
Taylor Fritz |
1541 |
47.94% |
16.50% |
5.68% |
2.13% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Jason Kubler |
1473 |
20.68% |
8.13% |
2.16% |
0.63% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1706 |
79.32% |
56.55% |
31.99% |
19.13% |
5.48% |
2.54% |
0.75% |
| 25 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1611 |
67.58% |
37.61% |
16.65% |
7.11% |
1.48% |
0.51% |
0.10% |
| 26 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1484 |
32.42% |
12.21% |
3.46% |
0.93% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Sam Querrey |
1591 |
56.53% |
29.93% |
12.46% |
4.99% |
0.97% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
| 28 |
Andreas Seppi |
1546 |
43.47% |
20.25% |
7.23% |
2.47% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 29 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1577 |
53.17% |
18.77% |
9.41% |
3.60% |
0.66% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 30 |
Andrey Rublev |
1555 |
46.83% |
15.26% |
7.17% |
2.54% |
0.43% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 31 |
Ryan Harrison |
1565 |
27.60% |
13.72% |
6.63% |
2.43% |
0.43% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Kevin Anderson |
1733 |
72.40% |
52.25% |
37.00% |
21.94% |
6.82% |
3.40% |
1.10% |
| 33 |
Juan Martin del Potro |
1848 |
88.57% |
76.07% |
60.02% |
46.65% |
33.58% |
15.41% |
7.18% |
| 34 |
Donald Young |
1492 |
11.43% |
5.10% |
1.71% |
0.56% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Denis Kudla |
1475 |
37.57% |
5.53% |
1.74% |
0.53% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 36 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1563 |
62.43% |
13.29% |
5.70% |
2.38% |
0.84% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
| 37 |
Andy Murray |
1658 |
77.96% |
46.09% |
16.27% |
8.90% |
4.23% |
1.10% |
0.27% |
| 38 |
James Duckworth |
1439 |
22.04% |
6.41% |
1.00% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 39 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1606 |
53.85% |
26.48% |
7.87% |
3.75% |
1.52% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
| 40 |
Fernando Verdasco |
1579 |
46.15% |
21.03% |
5.69% |
2.50% |
0.93% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 41 |
Borna Coric |
1669 |
79.99% |
59.93% |
34.24% |
13.49% |
6.60% |
1.78% |
0.45% |
| 42 |
Florian Mayer |
1428 |
20.01% |
8.56% |
2.23% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1479 |
50.15% |
15.83% |
5.03% |
0.99% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Mitchell Krueger |
1478 |
49.85% |
15.67% |
4.96% |
0.97% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1623 |
71.43% |
35.92% |
19.56% |
6.65% |
2.84% |
0.65% |
0.14% |
| 46 |
Evgeny Donskoy |
1464 |
28.57% |
8.50% |
2.88% |
0.53% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Tommy Robredo |
1487 |
26.26% |
9.89% |
3.63% |
0.74% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1666 |
73.74% |
45.68% |
27.47% |
10.74% |
5.23% |
1.40% |
0.35% |
| 49 |
John Isner |
1683 |
77.10% |
51.98% |
35.87% |
17.17% |
7.50% |
2.12% |
0.57% |
| 50 |
Bradley Klahn |
1472 |
22.90% |
8.71% |
3.50% |
0.79% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1557 |
50.09% |
19.71% |
10.26% |
3.25% |
0.93% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 52 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1557 |
49.91% |
19.60% |
10.19% |
3.22% |
0.92% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 53 |
Cameron Norrie |
1554 |
71.10% |
35.31% |
14.66% |
4.58% |
1.30% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
| 54 |
Jordan Thompson |
1397 |
28.90% |
8.27% |
1.90% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1553 |
49.08% |
27.47% |
11.38% |
3.54% |
1.00% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 56 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1559 |
50.92% |
28.95% |
12.23% |
3.90% |
1.13% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 57 |
Milos Raonic |
1748 |
85.37% |
66.18% |
39.96% |
27.98% |
14.57% |
5.07% |
1.73% |
| 58 |
Carlos Berlocq |
1442 |
14.63% |
5.50% |
1.24% |
0.37% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Lloyd Harris |
1482 |
38.69% |
9.01% |
2.40% |
0.83% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Gilles Simon |
1562 |
61.31% |
19.31% |
6.91% |
3.14% |
0.92% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 61 |
Collin Altamirano |
1500 |
50.00% |
11.21% |
3.21% |
1.19% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Ugo Humbert |
1500 |
50.00% |
11.21% |
3.21% |
1.19% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1694 |
44.15% |
33.24% |
17.44% |
11.03% |
4.96% |
1.45% |
0.41% |
| 64 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1734 |
55.85% |
44.34% |
25.62% |
17.51% |
8.79% |
2.93% |
0.95% |
| 65 |
Marin Cilic |
1808 |
87.24% |
76.35% |
60.81% |
43.20% |
26.36% |
10.18% |
4.29% |
| 66 |
Marius Copil |
1474 |
12.76% |
6.46% |
2.36% |
0.70% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Stefano Travaglia |
1469 |
49.59% |
8.47% |
3.03% |
0.89% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1471 |
50.41% |
8.72% |
3.15% |
0.93% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Alex De Minaur |
1578 |
57.33% |
28.36% |
8.89% |
3.75% |
1.18% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 70 |
Taro Daniel |
1526 |
42.67% |
17.99% |
4.73% |
1.70% |
0.44% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1575 |
48.33% |
25.52% |
7.94% |
3.33% |
1.04% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 72 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1587 |
51.67% |
28.14% |
9.09% |
3.95% |
1.29% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
| 73 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1529 |
50.01% |
27.33% |
8.79% |
2.51% |
0.66% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 74 |
Julien Bennetau |
1529 |
49.99% |
27.31% |
8.79% |
2.51% |
0.66% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 75 |
Tim Smyczek |
1420 |
34.15% |
11.90% |
2.51% |
0.47% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1535 |
65.85% |
33.45% |
10.97% |
3.20% |
0.86% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 77 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1480 |
36.27% |
8.54% |
3.81% |
0.91% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Robin Haase |
1578 |
63.73% |
21.65% |
12.66% |
4.30% |
1.36% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
| 79 |
Federico Gaio |
1471 |
17.04% |
6.81% |
2.95% |
0.68% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 80 |
David Goffin |
1746 |
82.96% |
63.01% |
49.52% |
26.98% |
14.27% |
4.48% |
1.56% |
| 81 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1635 |
68.89% |
46.03% |
19.07% |
7.69% |
3.04% |
0.63% |
0.15% |
| 82 |
Federico Delbonis |
1496 |
31.11% |
14.83% |
3.71% |
0.94% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Guillermo Garcia Lopez |
1492 |
44.65% |
16.25% |
3.99% |
0.99% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Jaume Munar |
1529 |
55.35% |
22.88% |
6.52% |
1.86% |
0.51% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Facundo Bagnis |
1403 |
17.68% |
2.94% |
0.84% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Gael Monfils |
1670 |
82.32% |
37.08% |
23.73% |
10.59% |
4.65% |
1.11% |
0.30% |
| 87 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1484 |
17.80% |
5.68% |
2.20% |
0.53% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 88 |
Kei Nishikori |
1750 |
82.20% |
54.29% |
39.94% |
21.83% |
11.87% |
3.78% |
1.34% |
| 89 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1527 |
53.27% |
23.43% |
5.92% |
1.88% |
0.51% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 90 |
Matthew Ebden |
1504 |
46.73% |
19.09% |
4.43% |
1.29% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Yannick Hanfmann |
1504 |
35.72% |
17.23% |
4.00% |
1.17% |
0.29% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 92 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1606 |
64.28% |
40.26% |
13.43% |
5.60% |
2.02% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
| 93 |
Jiri Vesely |
1543 |
61.99% |
13.99% |
6.85% |
2.31% |
0.67% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 94 |
Corentin Moutet |
1458 |
38.01% |
6.05% |
2.25% |
0.55% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 95 |
Peter Polansky |
1443 |
10.74% |
4.36% |
1.54% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 96 |
Alexander Zverev |
1811 |
89.26% |
75.60% |
61.57% |
42.27% |
26.30% |
10.25% |
4.36% |
| 97 |
Novak Djokovic |
1932 |
91.17% |
84.34% |
73.49% |
64.31% |
37.55% |
27.45% |
15.71% |
| 98 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1526 |
8.83% |
4.81% |
1.98% |
0.84% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Victor Troicki |
1503 |
52.44% |
5.89% |
2.24% |
0.88% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 100 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1486 |
47.56% |
4.95% |
1.77% |
0.66% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Laslo Djere |
1502 |
38.41% |
14.19% |
2.04% |
0.80% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1584 |
61.59% |
29.43% |
5.79% |
2.92% |
0.60% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 103 |
Yuichi Sugita |
1452 |
24.61% |
8.88% |
1.04% |
0.34% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 104 |
Richard Gasquet |
1647 |
75.39% |
47.50% |
11.67% |
6.87% |
1.78% |
0.65% |
0.16% |
| 105 |
Lucas Pouille |
1610 |
68.63% |
45.19% |
24.40% |
5.90% |
1.33% |
0.43% |
0.09% |
| 106 |
Yannick Maden |
1473 |
31.37% |
14.86% |
5.35% |
0.76% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Marcos Baghdatis |
1534 |
67.86% |
30.74% |
13.46% |
2.45% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 108 |
Mikhail Youzhny |
1404 |
32.14% |
9.21% |
2.56% |
0.27% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Joao Sousa |
1489 |
52.67% |
17.46% |
7.33% |
1.11% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Marcel Granollers |
1471 |
47.33% |
14.64% |
5.78% |
0.81% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Malek Jaziri |
1495 |
27.66% |
14.40% |
6.15% |
0.96% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 112 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1662 |
72.34% |
53.50% |
34.97% |
10.13% |
2.77% |
1.06% |
0.28% |
| 113 |
Fabio Fognini |
1708 |
79.37% |
59.28% |
39.58% |
11.26% |
4.16% |
1.85% |
0.57% |
| 114 |
Michael Mmoh |
1474 |
20.63% |
8.97% |
3.25% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Jenson Brooksby |
1500 |
44.90% |
13.24% |
5.23% |
0.65% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
John Millman |
1536 |
55.10% |
18.50% |
8.17% |
1.19% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1481 |
48.64% |
16.23% |
5.07% |
0.58% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Noah Rubin |
1490 |
51.36% |
17.72% |
5.73% |
0.69% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1417 |
20.29% |
8.18% |
2.00% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 120 |
Chung Hyeon |
1655 |
79.71% |
57.87% |
30.96% |
7.27% |
2.29% |
0.86% |
0.22% |
| 121 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1741 |
86.08% |
67.20% |
19.56% |
12.62% |
5.13% |
2.51% |
0.86% |
| 122 |
Radu Albot |
1425 |
13.92% |
5.12% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Yuki Bhambri |
1482 |
41.13% |
9.85% |
1.08% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1545 |
58.87% |
17.83% |
2.52% |
0.97% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 125 |
Benoit Paire |
1566 |
59.38% |
7.31% |
2.71% |
1.12% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 126 |
Dennis Novak |
1500 |
40.62% |
3.73% |
1.10% |
0.36% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1510 |
6.71% |
3.07% |
0.94% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 128 |
Roger Federer |
1968 |
93.29% |
85.88% |
71.65% |
61.98% |
41.63% |
32.01% |
19.72% |
