The US Open starts tomorrow, and here are my predictions for the Women's draw. After the jump, I shall summarise the highlights, then present the full table of prediction percentages for you to view.
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- Simona Halep is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 17.31% chance of winning the whole thing, with Serena Williams next at 10.54%. The 3rd most likely is Petra Kvitova with 8.21% and Angelique Kerber 4th with 7.64%
- 5 players are tied as to who has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. Danielle Lao, Kateryna Kozlova, Kateryna Bondarenko, Francesca di Lorenzo and Christina McHale are all 12 places more likely to win than expected.
- On the other hand, Magda Linette and Whitney Osuigwe have a tough draw. They are the 118th and 120th most likely winners, but they are the 94th and 96th highest ranked players competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Johanna Konta, as she's the 93rd most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 24th of the competitors.
- Anna Blinkova got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 73rd most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 119th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Simona Halep |
1882 |
89.26% |
80.48% |
69.19% |
45.29% |
33.85% |
24.65% |
17.31% |
| 2 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1514 |
10.74% |
5.64% |
2.51% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Jil Teichmann |
1475 |
44.51% |
5.61% |
2.20% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Dalila Jakupovic |
1513 |
55.49% |
8.28% |
3.68% |
0.79% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Vania King |
1484 |
52.84% |
19.07% |
3.17% |
0.61% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 6 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1464 |
47.16% |
15.85% |
2.43% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1475 |
28.89% |
14.47% |
2.32% |
0.43% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1632 |
71.11% |
50.61% |
14.49% |
4.90% |
2.10% |
0.84% |
0.31% |
| 9 |
Serena Williams |
1845 |
88.46% |
78.03% |
58.48% |
33.09% |
23.39% |
16.04% |
10.54% |
| 10 |
Magda Linette |
1491 |
11.54% |
5.73% |
1.66% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Caroline Dolehide |
1518 |
58.36% |
10.45% |
3.37% |
0.72% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Carina Witthoft |
1459 |
41.64% |
5.79% |
1.48% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Camila Giorgi |
1629 |
69.16% |
29.77% |
9.67% |
3.05% |
1.30% |
0.52% |
0.19% |
| 14 |
Whitney Osuigwe |
1489 |
30.84% |
7.81% |
1.54% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1643 |
41.39% |
23.90% |
8.11% |
2.67% |
1.18% |
0.49% |
0.19% |
| 16 |
Venus Williams |
1703 |
58.61% |
38.52% |
15.70% |
6.21% |
3.26% |
1.63% |
0.76% |
| 17 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1716 |
75.00% |
59.56% |
33.45% |
20.09% |
7.38% |
3.81% |
1.84% |
| 18 |
Zhang Shuai |
1525 |
25.00% |
14.07% |
4.35% |
1.56% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 19 |
Karolina Muchova |
1489 |
52.34% |
14.23% |
3.82% |
1.21% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Dayana Yastremska |
1473 |
47.66% |
12.14% |
3.05% |
0.91% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Petra Martic |
1595 |
44.89% |
17.10% |
7.80% |
3.49% |
0.82% |
0.29% |
0.10% |
| 22 |
Lucie Safarova |
1631 |
55.11% |
23.47% |
11.80% |
5.81% |
1.58% |
0.63% |
0.23% |
| 23 |
Ons Jabeur |
1447 |
16.54% |
4.57% |
1.27% |
0.35% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1728 |
83.46% |
54.86% |
34.47% |
21.24% |
8.13% |
4.34% |
2.17% |
| 25 |
Maria Sakkari |
1566 |
64.35% |
37.63% |
14.16% |
5.03% |
1.05% |
0.34% |
0.10% |
| 26 |
Asia Muhammad |
1463 |
35.65% |
15.65% |
4.11% |
0.98% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 27 |
Luksika Kumkhum |
1472 |
41.72% |
17.51% |
4.76% |
1.18% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 28 |
Sofia Kenin |
1530 |
58.28% |
29.20% |
9.77% |
3.05% |
0.55% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 29 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1464 |
44.39% |
9.55% |
3.98% |
0.96% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 30 |
Ana Bogdan |
1503 |
55.61% |
14.06% |
6.64% |
1.87% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 31 |
Zarina Diyas |
1528 |
21.79% |
12.22% |
6.21% |
1.93% |
0.34% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1750 |
78.21% |
64.17% |
50.37% |
30.35% |
12.46% |
7.03% |
3.74% |
| 33 |
Sloane Stephens |
1724 |
79.22% |
63.17% |
38.97% |
24.66% |
13.08% |
5.32% |
2.63% |
| 34 |
Evgeniya Rodina |
1492 |
20.78% |
10.56% |
3.27% |
1.08% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 35 |
Kathinka von Deichmann |
1492 |
51.88% |
13.97% |
4.33% |
1.44% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Anhelina Kalinina |
1479 |
48.12% |
12.30% |
3.63% |
1.15% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1700 |
75.74% |
50.26% |
29.10% |
17.54% |
8.74% |
3.29% |
1.52% |
| 38 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1503 |
24.26% |
9.56% |
3.15% |
1.09% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 39 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1501 |
33.59% |
10.17% |
3.33% |
1.14% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 40 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1619 |
66.41% |
30.02% |
14.22% |
7.03% |
2.75% |
0.77% |
0.27% |
| 41 |
Barbora Strycova |
1622 |
71.51% |
48.34% |
23.44% |
10.42% |
4.11% |
1.17% |
0.42% |
| 42 |
Danielle Lao |
1462 |
28.49% |
12.96% |
3.76% |
0.95% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1468 |
43.46% |
15.35% |
4.54% |
1.17% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Lara Arruabarrena |
1514 |
56.54% |
23.34% |
8.13% |
2.50% |
0.66% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 45 |
Vera Lapko |
1516 |
56.44% |
17.40% |
7.81% |
2.42% |
0.65% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 46 |
Kateryna Bondarenko |
1471 |
43.56% |
11.36% |
4.41% |
1.15% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Kurumi Nara |
1410 |
15.19% |
5.76% |
1.80% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Elise Mertens |
1709 |
84.81% |
65.49% |
46.11% |
25.91% |
13.20% |
5.12% |
2.43% |
| 49 |
Julia Gorges |
1719 |
83.53% |
56.43% |
36.76% |
19.46% |
11.13% |
4.45% |
2.17% |
| 50 |
Anna Kalinskaya |
1437 |
16.47% |
5.01% |
1.43% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Heather Watson |
1472 |
28.58% |
7.24% |
2.37% |
0.56% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Ekaterina Makarova |
1631 |
71.42% |
31.32% |
16.80% |
6.99% |
3.16% |
0.93% |
0.34% |
| 53 |
Polona Hercog |
1496 |
52.42% |
15.64% |
4.52% |
1.18% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 54 |
Claire Liu |
1479 |
47.58% |
13.26% |
3.59% |
0.88% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Donna Vekic |
1587 |
36.75% |
23.48% |
9.40% |
3.41% |
1.34% |
0.33% |
0.11% |
| 56 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1682 |
63.25% |
47.62% |
25.12% |
12.09% |
6.30% |
2.23% |
0.97% |
| 57 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1591 |
51.85% |
32.77% |
10.48% |
4.32% |
1.72% |
0.43% |
0.14% |
| 58 |
Wang Qiang |
1578 |
48.15% |
29.59% |
9.03% |
3.57% |
1.36% |
0.32% |
0.10% |
| 59 |
Jennifer Brady |
1467 |
42.70% |
14.40% |
2.82% |
0.74% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1518 |
57.30% |
23.25% |
5.64% |
1.80% |
0.55% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 61 |
Agnieszka Radwanska |
1657 |
75.20% |
27.68% |
17.85% |
8.98% |
4.38% |
1.42% |
0.58% |
| 62 |
Tatjana Maria |
1465 |
24.80% |
4.37% |
1.65% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Sachia Vickery |
1499 |
15.12% |
5.33% |
2.27% |
0.68% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 64 |
Elina Svitolina |
1799 |
84.88% |
62.62% |
50.26% |
34.63% |
23.40% |
11.84% |
7.08% |
| 65 |
Caroline Garcia |
1731 |
60.07% |
43.21% |
30.03% |
18.13% |
10.15% |
5.22% |
2.28% |
| 66 |
Johanna Konta |
1660 |
39.93% |
25.27% |
15.30% |
7.79% |
3.63% |
1.52% |
0.52% |
| 67 |
Monica Puig |
1606 |
70.28% |
25.67% |
13.65% |
5.96% |
2.36% |
0.82% |
0.23% |
| 68 |
Stefanie Vogele |
1457 |
29.72% |
5.85% |
1.94% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1535 |
50.78% |
20.83% |
6.80% |
2.36% |
0.73% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 70 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1530 |
49.22% |
19.84% |
6.35% |
2.16% |
0.65% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 71 |
Nicole Gibbs |
1450 |
24.22% |
9.29% |
2.16% |
0.54% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 72 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1648 |
75.78% |
50.05% |
23.78% |
11.72% |
5.27% |
2.12% |
0.70% |
| 73 |
Maria Sharapova |
1737 |
81.25% |
61.26% |
42.10% |
26.18% |
14.86% |
7.76% |
3.45% |
| 74 |
Patty Schnyder |
1482 |
18.75% |
7.78% |
2.74% |
0.79% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 75 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1527 |
45.91% |
13.42% |
5.49% |
1.87% |
0.56% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 76 |
Alison Riske |
1555 |
54.09% |
17.54% |
7.85% |
2.95% |
0.98% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
| 77 |
Taylor Townsend |
1467 |
39.06% |
11.58% |
3.08% |
0.84% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 78 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1545 |
60.94% |
23.90% |
8.45% |
3.06% |
0.98% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
| 79 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1508 |
28.36% |
13.91% |
4.31% |
1.37% |
0.38% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 80 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1669 |
71.64% |
50.62% |
25.98% |
13.78% |
6.57% |
2.82% |
1.00% |
| 81 |
Madison Keys |
1706 |
75.97% |
56.21% |
37.82% |
19.48% |
10.75% |
5.16% |
2.08% |
| 82 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1506 |
24.03% |
11.38% |
4.51% |
1.22% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 83 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1527 |
50.78% |
16.62% |
7.06% |
2.07% |
0.65% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 84 |
Bernada Pera |
1522 |
49.22% |
15.79% |
6.60% |
1.89% |
0.58% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 85 |
Timea Bacsinszky |
1594 |
59.76% |
30.34% |
13.88% |
5.13% |
2.04% |
0.68% |
0.18% |
| 86 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1525 |
40.24% |
16.50% |
6.08% |
1.76% |
0.55% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 87 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1560 |
43.00% |
21.16% |
8.75% |
2.89% |
1.03% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
| 88 |
Coco Vandeweghe |
1609 |
57.00% |
32.00% |
15.31% |
5.96% |
2.50% |
0.88% |
0.25% |
| 89 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1640 |
69.57% |
43.33% |
17.17% |
9.10% |
4.19% |
1.64% |
0.53% |
| 90 |
Arantxa Rus |
1496 |
30.43% |
13.00% |
3.07% |
1.04% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 91 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1438 |
29.00% |
8.49% |
1.57% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 92 |
Hsieh Su-Wei |
1594 |
71.00% |
35.18% |
11.97% |
5.58% |
2.22% |
0.74% |
0.20% |
| 93 |
Alize Cornet |
1609 |
59.60% |
18.79% |
9.92% |
4.83% |
2.02% |
0.71% |
0.20% |
| 94 |
Johanna Larsson |
1541 |
40.40% |
9.88% |
4.29% |
1.70% |
0.56% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 95 |
Margarita Gasparyan |
1510 |
16.14% |
6.45% |
2.54% |
0.90% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 96 |
Angelique Kerber |
1797 |
83.86% |
64.88% |
49.47% |
36.03% |
24.14% |
14.56% |
7.64% |
| 97 |
Petra Kvitova |
1800 |
84.39% |
72.20% |
52.45% |
38.14% |
24.44% |
15.53% |
8.21% |
| 98 |
Yanina Wickmayer |
1506 |
15.61% |
8.18% |
2.93% |
1.01% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 99 |
Wang Yafan |
1509 |
56.46% |
11.98% |
4.33% |
1.50% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 100 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1464 |
43.54% |
7.64% |
2.35% |
0.69% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 101 |
Vera Zvonareva |
1483 |
53.27% |
14.59% |
3.42% |
1.08% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 102 |
Anna Blinkova |
1460 |
46.73% |
11.66% |
2.50% |
0.72% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Danielle Collins |
1548 |
28.99% |
17.59% |
5.23% |
2.08% |
0.65% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 104 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1704 |
71.01% |
56.15% |
26.80% |
16.34% |
8.41% |
4.27% |
1.71% |
| 105 |
Naomi Osaka |
1650 |
59.29% |
41.89% |
22.12% |
9.15% |
4.05% |
1.76% |
0.59% |
| 106 |
Laura Siegemund |
1584 |
40.71% |
25.40% |
11.13% |
3.73% |
1.34% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
| 107 |
Monica Niculescu |
1523 |
59.32% |
21.36% |
7.62% |
2.04% |
0.58% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 108 |
Julia Glushko |
1457 |
40.68% |
11.35% |
3.16% |
0.65% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1580 |
53.51% |
21.42% |
10.56% |
3.48% |
1.22% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
| 110 |
Belinda Bencic |
1555 |
46.49% |
17.15% |
7.87% |
2.38% |
0.77% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 111 |
Timea Babos |
1510 |
25.17% |
10.51% |
4.19% |
1.07% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 112 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1700 |
74.83% |
50.92% |
33.35% |
15.93% |
8.11% |
4.07% |
1.61% |
| 113 |
Kiki Bertens |
1749 |
79.45% |
65.78% |
45.58% |
27.79% |
15.62% |
8.90% |
4.10% |
| 114 |
Kristyna Pliskova |
1515 |
20.55% |
11.41% |
4.41% |
1.36% |
0.36% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 115 |
Francesca Di Lorenzo |
1490 |
54.41% |
13.12% |
4.67% |
1.31% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Christina McHale |
1459 |
45.59% |
9.68% |
3.08% |
0.77% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Harmony Tan |
1500 |
49.47% |
15.85% |
4.80% |
1.40% |
0.35% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 118 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1504 |
50.53% |
16.41% |
5.03% |
1.49% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 119 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1518 |
28.12% |
14.73% |
4.75% |
1.49% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 120 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1681 |
71.88% |
53.02% |
27.68% |
14.41% |
6.79% |
3.24% |
1.20% |
| 121 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1634 |
62.86% |
42.35% |
17.84% |
8.16% |
3.34% |
1.38% |
0.43% |
| 122 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1543 |
37.14% |
20.44% |
6.30% |
2.15% |
0.64% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 123 |
Lizette Cabrera |
1471 |
41.26% |
13.40% |
3.11% |
0.82% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 124 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1532 |
58.74% |
23.81% |
7.06% |
2.33% |
0.67% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| 125 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1542 |
39.04% |
10.48% |
4.84% |
1.65% |
0.49% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 126 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1619 |
60.96% |
21.83% |
12.43% |
5.44% |
2.12% |
0.84% |
0.25% |
| 127 |
Samantha Stosur |
1572 |
23.91% |
11.37% |
5.72% |
2.16% |
0.72% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
| 128 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1773 |
76.09% |
56.32% |
42.70% |
27.26% |
16.17% |
9.71% |
4.78% |
