Monday, 14 September 2015

U.S. Open Men's Singles Summary + ELO Rankings 14/09/2015

With the U.S. Open finished, now's the best time to have a look back at how my predictions did. These predictions were solely based on an ELO rating system that I have been updating from the start of the year.

R1: 37/63 (59%)
R2: 26/32 (81%)
R3: 10/16 (63%)
R4: 5/8 (63%)
R5: 4/4 (100%)
R6: 2/2 (100%)
R7: 1/1 (100%)

Overall: 85/126 (67.5%)

A decent performance, the perfect late rounds combined with no really bad rounds earned me a win in the Drop Out contest on the site I'm tracking my predictions with, along with 3 other predictors. I'm happy with it, but I'd like to see it do better, obviously.

The Big Gainer of the (2) week(s) is Feliciano Lopez. The Men's tournament went mostly to expectations in the later rounds, but Feliciano's run to the Quarter Finals is the one that earns this ward this tournament. He beat Milos Raonic among others on the way there which gave him a lot of rating points, while his eventual loss to ELO #1 and the eventual champion Novak Djokovic only cost him 3 points. This resulted in a total gain of 35 ELO rating points, and a new ranking of #23.

The Upset player of the (2) week(s) award goes to Kei Nishikori. While the later rounds went to expectations, there were a few upsets in the earlier rounds, but Kei's loss in the 1st round was the worst of them all. He lost 15 ELO rating points for that loss, which puts him in a new ranking of #5.

Other strong performers relative to their rankings are Donald Young, Sergiy Stakhovsky, Jiri Vesely, Mikhail Kukushkin and Ruben Bemelmans.

Now, the full rankings. NOTE: This week, I am using a new set of rankings, with a minimum number of matches or tournaments needed to be ranked. The ratings are the same ones but fewer players will be ranked in these posts. One notable omission is David Ferrer, who has only played 2 tournaments with 4 matches in them since I started collecting this data.

1Novak Djokovic1908
2Roger Federer1845
3Andy Murray1811
4Stan Wawrinka1733
5Kei Nishikori1730
6Rafael Nadal1717
7Tomas Berdych1704
8Richard Gasquet1700
9Kevin Anderson1682
10Marin Cilic1654
11John Isner1650
12Jo-Wilfried Tsonga1636
13Milos Raonic1631
14Gilles Simon1617
15Gael Monfils1615
16David Goffin1606
17Dominic Thiem1601
18Grigor Dimitrov1595
19Roberto Bautista-Agut1594
20Ivo Karlovic1592
21Philipp Kohlschreiber1592
22Nick Kyrgios1585
23Feliciano Lopez1585
24Jack Sock1582
25Jeremy Chardy1577
26Benoit Paire1576
27Tommy Robredo1573
28Bernard Tomic1572
29Thomaz Bellucci1572
30Andreas Seppi1571
31Fabio Fognini1569
32Simone Bolelli1551
33Gilles Muller1550
34Leonardo Mayer1550
35Guillermo Garcia-Lopez1550
36Alexandr Dolgopolov1546
37Victor Troicki1545
38Fernando Verdasco1541
39Steve Johnson1540
40Marcos Baghdatis1538
41Rajeev Ram1538
42Borna Coric1537
43Sam Querrey1521
44Aljaz Bedene1520
45Adrian Mannarino1518
46Donald Young1518
47Denis Istomin1517
48Sam Groth1517
49Nicolas Almagro1514
50Pierre-Hugues Herbert1513
51Pablo Cuevas1513
52Alexander Zverev1512
53Juan Monaco1512
54Jerzy Janowicz1510
55Joao Sousa1507
56Vasek Pospisil1505
57Teymuraz Gabashvili1505
58Chung Hyeon1503
59Marcel Granollers1494
60Thanasi Kokkinakis1493
61Santiago Giraldo1491
62Martin Klizan1491
63Federico Delbonis1490
64Nicolas Mahut1490
65Dusan Lajovic1489
66Victor Estrella Burgos1487
67Radek Stepanek1486
68Sergiy Stakhovsky1486
69Jiri Vesely1482
70Paul-Henri Mathieu1481
71Tatsuma Ito1481
72Ricardas Berankis1480
73Pablo Andujar1476
74Robin Haase1474
75Andreas Haider-Maurer1473
76Michael Berrer1472
77Malek Jaziri1471
78Pablo Carreno Busta1471
79Mikhail Kukushkin1471
80Denis Kudla1469
81Dustin Brown1468
82Jared Donaldson1467
83Marsel Ilhan1467
84Yen-Hsun Lu1465
85Dudi Sela1464
86Lukas Rosol1458
87Diego Schwartzman1456
88Albert Ramos-Vinolas1455
89Ernests Gulbis1453
90Daniel Gimeno-Traver1452
91Blaz Kavcic1450
92Tommy Haas1440
93Mikhail Youzhny1437
94Lleyton Hewitt1431
95James Ward1430
96Tim Smyczek1427
97Joao Souza1412
98Benjamin Becker1405
99Lukas Lacko1397

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