The 2nd week of the US Open is here, so it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Dominic Thiem lost in round 1 to Thomas Fabbiano.
- Paolo Lorenzi had the easiest round 1 match, and won his match before losing to Stan Wawrinka in round 3. John Millman had the toughest opening match, and lost in round 1 as expected. Daniil Medvedev had the toughest overall draw and is still in the tournament, but Thiem had the easiest overall draw and ended up losing early.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Rafael Nadal is still the favourite for the title, with a 37.89% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 23.59%. The 3rd most likely winner is Roger Federer with 23.33%, and 4th is Daniil Medvedev with 4.94%.
- Matteo Berrettini has the easiest draw to the title relative to their ranking, as he is 1 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than a player of his ELO rating is expected to perform.
- David Goffin has the toughest overall draw, as he is 1 percentage points less likely to win the ttitle than expected.
- As for the easiest next match, it's Alex De Minaur who has the easiest next match, as he is 33 percentage points more likely to win than someone with his ELO rating is expected to do.
- And David Goffin has the toughest 4th round match, as he's 51 percentage points less likely to win than expected.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1995 |
83.70% |
63.00% |
39.18% |
23.59% |
| 2 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1710 |
16.30% |
6.43% |
1.83% |
0.51% |
| 3 |
Dominik Kopfer |
1522 |
14.53% |
1.35% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 4 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1830 |
85.47% |
29.22% |
12.19% |
4.94% |
| 5 |
Roger Federer |
1979 |
79.30% |
69.92% |
39.97% |
23.33% |
| 6 |
David Goffin |
1746 |
20.70% |
13.67% |
3.81% |
1.20% |
| 7 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1632 |
50.48% |
8.35% |
1.45% |
0.30% |
| 8 |
Alex De Minaur |
1628 |
49.52% |
8.06% |
1.38% |
0.28% |
| 9 |
Andrey Rublev |
1662 |
44.53% |
21.96% |
4.31% |
0.77% |
| 10 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1700 |
55.47% |
30.26% |
6.91% |
1.46% |
| 11 |
Gael Monfils |
1712 |
72.14% |
39.04% |
9.33% |
2.07% |
| 12 |
Pablo Andujar |
1547 |
27.86% |
8.74% |
1.03% |
0.11% |
| 13 |
Alexander Zverev |
1743 |
56.22% |
12.53% |
7.31% |
1.84% |
| 14 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1700 |
43.78% |
8.16% |
4.27% |
0.90% |
| 15 |
Marin Cilic |
1708 |
14.26% |
6.81% |
3.65% |
0.80% |
| 16 |
Rafael Nadal |
2020 |
85.74% |
72.49% |
63.19% |
37.89% |
